Author: Anthony Bubalo / Topic: International Relations

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Before 2001, Australian policy in the region defined here as West Asia – that stretching from India's western borders across to the eastern shores of the Mediterranean, encompassing Southwest Asia, the Persian Gulf and the Levant – focused on two broad objectives: supporting American-led efforts to promote regional stability, and securing opportunities for Australian exports.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australia's economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East and South Asia are growing and policymakers are gradually reassessing the place of these regions in Australia's overall strategic calculus. There is a risk, however, that in this reassessment, the two regions will continue to be viewed distinctly - a distinction that is increasingly artificial in strategic terms.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

Author:: Anthony Bubalo, Mark P Thirlwell, and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Iranian nuclear issue has entered a critical phase. A draft UN Security Council resolution has been circulated that could pave the way for political and economic sanctions. Should these fail to change Iran's position, the likelihood of military action will grow towards the end of 2006 and into 2007. At the same time, high oil prices have bolstered Iran's ability to defy demands that it give up uranium enrichment and provide greater transparency with respect to its nuclear program. Given current supply, demand and price indicators, oil provides Iran with a very potent weapon with which to respond to punitive measures. However, the economic and political fallout produced by the use of the oil in this way makes it likely Tehran would use such a weapon cautiously.
Topic:: International Relations, Energy Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific

Author:: Anthony Bubalo and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The international impasse over Iran\'s nuclear program is entering a critical phase. The compromise being offered by the international community, whereby Iran would carry out sensitive uranium enrichment work in Russia, is unlikely to be accepted in full by Tehran. The hardline rhetoric of new President Ahmedinejad is further limiting the prospects of a diplomatic solution being found. As a result, the issue is likely to come before the Security Council. Once in New York there are a number of ways it could play out. But at this stage it is not clear what the Council would be able to do to force a change of behaviour from Tehran. Faced with poor options all round, Washington may feel at some point that it has to risk the uncertain results of limited air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities to delay what it regards as the unthinkable - a nuclear armed Iran.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The current fragile ceasefire between Palestinian militants and Israel has raised hopes of an end to four years of violence. To sustain that ceasefire both Israel and the Palestinian Authority must meet their respective commitments under the "Road Map for Middle bast Peace". For the PA this means preventing terrorist attacks against Israel and undertaking political, legal and security reforms. These reforms are also critical to meeting the Palestinian public's own demands for an end to lawlessness and corruption. Given Australia's expertise in legal and institutional development, the Australian government's commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the Middle bast and its sound relationship with both the PA and the government of Israel, Australia should lend what support it can to the Palestinian effort to establish strong foundations for a stable, prosperous and democratic Palestinian state.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Australia

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