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11. Beyond Arafat

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Arafat may have suffered a lingering physical demise, but politically he has long been in decline. He lost much of his international credibility over his unwillingness to rein in Palestinian terrorism against Israel, and domestically his authority had gradually been eroded. While lacking an anointed heir, a succession plan is more or less in place. Political infighting is a possibility, though a desire for unity will probably prevail in the short term. But Arafat's successors will struggle to end the chaos and lawlessness into which the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have descended. Over the longer term Arafat's passing will remove the main obstacle to internal Palestinian reform. It has the potential to re-invigorate the peace process although it will not solve the fundamentals of the current impasse. It will also complicate Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, even if his instinct will be to press ahead.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East

12. Energy insecurity: China, India and Middle East oil

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The rapid expansion of their economies has seen China and India become voracious consumers of energy. Oil, much of it imported from the Middle East, has become an increasingly important part of their energy needs. Both governments are conscious that this growing reliance on one of the world's most unstable regions leaves their countries vulnerable to supply disruptions and/or price fluctuations. As a result, energy security has become a key foreign policy objective and, particularly in the case of China, is shaping their approach to the Middle East. This issues brief provides an overview of current energy demand trends and raises for discussion some of the potential longer term strategic implications of this growing dependence on Mid-East oil.
Topic:
Energy Policy
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, India, and Asia

13. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza: a role for Australia?

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Despite its defeat in a Likud Party referendum on 2 May, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's proposal for a unilateral withdrawal from settlements and military positions in the Gaza Strip remains very much on the Israeli national agenda. For Sharon a withdrawal would help shorten Israel's security lines, block any alternate diplomatic initiatives being forced on Israel and win important policy changes in US positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Indeed despite Palestinian suspicions about the proposal, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza could, if executed in an orderly and coordinated fashion, ultimately help reinvigorate a moribund peace process. There remain, however, a number of questions surrounding the plan, not least of which is whom Israel would coordinate any pull-out with, and who or what would fill any political and security vacuum left by Israel's withdrawal. Solving both sets of problems is likely to require some form of international intervention. If this occurs Australia would probably find itself on a short list of countries who would both be capable of contributing to such a sensitive and complex mission and whose membership of such a force would be acceptable to Israel, the Palestinians and the United States.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Australia/Pacific