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2. Losses and Potential Gains of a Would-Be “Maghrebi Union”
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- “The Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) is dead,” thundered King Mohammed VI at the twenty-eighth Annual Heads of State Summit of the African Union (AU). Its flame has faded, he added, because faith in a common interest has vanished. Unless the Maghreb follows the good example of neighbor- ing African sub-regions, the king warned, the AMU will soon cease to exist. Stalwart integrationists fear that Morocco has abandoned the Maghrebi dream altogether. The depressing truth, however, is that the King’s lament on the demise of the AMU is simply a reflection of the mood of resignation increasingly palpable in the Maghreb. Everyone knows that the AMU is an empty shell, ensnared in decades of neighborly parochial animosities, petty jealousies, and perverse rivalries. The two countries consequential enough to anchor the Maghreb remain at each other throats. Morocco and Algeria see eye-to-eye on almost nothing, and their bickering and recrimination have only gotten worse.1 Sadly, the demons of their discord seem to grad- ually possess their respective publics who intermittently hurl insults at each other in social media forums and during sports and entertainment events.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Sports, Social Media, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, and Morocco
3. January 2018 Issue
- Author:
- Fernando Reinares, Carola Garcia-Calvo, Paul Cruickshank, Michael Knights, Matther Levitt, Matthew Dupee, and Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- During the course of nine hours in August 2017, a terrorist cell carried out two vehicle-ramming attacks in Catalonia, with the first striking pedestrians on the famous Las Ramblas promenade in the heart of Barcelona. In our cover article, Fernando Reinares and Carola García-Calvo draw on judicial documents and interviews with investigators to provide the inside story of the worst terrorist attack in Spain since the 2004 Madrid bombings. Their account reveals the 10-man cell of ‘homegrown’ radicals, led by an extremist Moroccan cleric in the town of Ripoll, had initially planned to carry out vehicle bomb attacks in Barcelona and possibly Paris, but changed and accelerated their plans after they accidentally blew up their bomb factory where they were manufacturing TATP. While it is still not clear whether the cell had any contact with the Islamic State, the authors reveal that the network behind the November 2015 Paris attacks was also plotting to launch a similar attack in Barcelona that year. This month’s interview feature is with Nicholas Rasmussen, who retired as the head of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) at the end of 2017. Michael Knights and Matthew Levitt draw on interviews with Bahraini security officials to outline how Shi`a militant cells in the country have evolved from easily detectible groups of amateurs to small cells of attackers with overseas training and combat experience and the ability to mount effective IED attacks. Matthew DuPée looks at the threat to the Taliban from other insurgent groups. Anouar Boukhars examines the potential jihadi windfall from the militarization of Tunisia’s border region with Libya. This issue is the first to be launched on the Combating Terrorism Center’s redesigned website, which is also being unveiled. The new, easy-to-search, interactive interface showcases the important scholarship contained in CTC Sentinel over the past decade, as well as all the research published by the Combating Terrorism Center since its founding almost 15 years ago.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Insurgency, Counter-terrorism, Violence, Shia, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Libya, Spain, North Africa, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Barcelona
4. The Geographic Trajectory of Conflict and Militancy in Tunisia
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- More than six years after the revolution that ousted former president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisia’s border regions remain hotbeds of social discontent and agitation. Aggrieved youth increasingly express their anger through fiery protests, street violence, and in some cases violent extremism. In response to this ongoing social unrest and terrorism, the Tunisian government has developed hardline security policies, whose effects often exacerbate social tensions, political violence, and militancy. Breaking this vicious cycle requires Tunisia’s government to rethink its approach to the border regions.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Tunisia
5. The Reckoning: Tunisia's Perilous Path to Democratic Stability
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- For Tunisia, 2014 was a year of historic milestones. But despite a new constitution and free elections that led to the peaceful transfer of power to the secular Nidaa Tounes party, the democratic consensus forged after the country's 2011 revolution remains fragile. The hard work of reconciling a deeply polarized society—one torn between Islamists and secularists, young and old, democrats and counterrevolutionaries, cosmopolitan coastal areas and the underdeveloped interior and south—still lies ahead.
- Political Geography:
- Tunisia
6. In the Crossfire: Islamists' Travails in Tunisia
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Tunisia is struggling with insecurity, social tensions, and ideological divisions three years after President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali was ousted during a popular uprising. But the country is making progress on the path to democracy. Islamist and secular politicians have struck a potentially landmark agreement that could get Tunisia's democratic transition back on track. To solidify gains and ensure that a successful Tunisian experiment reverberates across the Arab world, socioeconomic struggles that fuel protests and radicalism must be confronted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia
7. The Paranoid Neighbor: Algeria and the Conflict in Mali
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- As the crisis in Mali threatens to grow into a full-fledged regional security and humanitarian nightmare, nervous neighboring countries are looking to Algeria to lead a conflict management effort. In many ways Algeria has always wanted recognition as a regional leader. Yet, Algiers worries about being dragged into a Saharan quagmire and seems reluctant or unable to maintain stability in its backyard. Both the country's neighbors and the West are questioning Algeria's decision not to take a more active role in Mali.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Humanitarian Aid, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, and Mali
8. Simmering Discontent in the Western Sahara
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Western Sahara, a former Spanish territory annexed by Morocco despite Algerian objections, is a critical region that could quickly become part of the criminal and terrorist networks threatening North Africa and the Sahel. The undergoverned areas abutting the territory are becoming major hubs for drug trafficking, contraband smuggling, and weapons circulation. And Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is extending its reach in the region. The potential for destabilization is real.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Terrorism, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
9. The Drivers of Insecurity in Mauritania
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The trans-Saharan region is emerging as a hotbed of instability and insecurity. A confluence of forces, from the revolts in North Africa and the proliferation of weapons to transnational trafficking of illicit goods and terrorist activity led by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, are generating acute interest in this part of the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Islam, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Mauritania
10. Decision-Making and Crisis Management in The Cuban Missile Affair
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia International Affairs Online
- Abstract:
- In what was the most serious "clash" during the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union came dangerously close to cataclysmic confrontation when the Soviets in an unprecedented dangerous move had begun a clandestine effort to establish a major offensive military presence in Castro's Cuba in October 1962. This potentially dreadful incident brought policy makers on both sides to seriously question their use of diplomacy and military force. Had it not been for the wisdom of the leaders of the two antagonistic countries, the US and the Soviet Union, no one could have speculated the harm that could have been inflicted on the whole world. This paper will therefore try to examine how the Cuban Missile Crisis came about and how well it was managed by the US and the Soviets political leadership. It will address the importance of the national security decision making in preventing this crisis from degenerating into a tragedy.
- Topic:
- Cold War
- Political Geography:
- United States