1. Securing Civilisation Against Catastrophic Pandemics
- Author:
- Anjali Gopal, William Bradshaw, Vaishnav Sunil, and Kevin M. Esvelt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Pandemic security aims to safeguard the future of civilisation from exponentially spreading biological threats. Despite the world's failure to contain SARS-CoV-2, the existence of far more lethal and transmissible pathogens that afflict animals and growing access to increasingly powerful biotechnologies, no analyses of worst-case scenarios and potential defences have been published. Here we outline two distinct mechanisms by which pandemic pathogens transmissible between humans could cause societal collapse. In a "Wildfire" pandemic, the justifiable fear of a lethal and highly contagious respiratory agent released in multiple travel hubs leads to the breakdown of essential services. In a "Stealth" pandemic, a rapidly spreading virus with a long incubation period analogous to HIV infects most of humankind. We explain why current pandemic preparedness measures such as rapid vaccines and N95 masks will reliably fail against these threats and outline novel strategies and technologies capable of safeguarding civilisation.
- Topic:
- Crisis Management, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Biotechnology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus