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11. The New Middle East

Author:
Marina Ottaway, Paul Salem, Amr Hamzawy, Nathan J. Brown, and Karim Sadjadpour
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After September 11, 2001, the Bush administration launched an ambitious policy to forge a new Middle East, with intervention in Iraq as the driver of the transformation. "The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution," declared President Bush on November 7, 2003. In speech after speech, Bush administration officials made it abundantly clear that they would not pursue a policy directed at managing and containing existing crises, intending instead to leapfrog over them by creating a new region of democracy and peace in which old disputes would become irrelevant. The idea was summarized in a statement by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during the war between Lebanon and Israel in the summer of 2006. Pushing Israel to accept a cease- fire, she argued, would not help, because it would simply re-establish the status quo ante, not help create a new Middle East. The new Middle East was to be a region of mostly democratic countries allied with the United States. Regimes that did not cooperate would be subjected to a combination of sanctions and support for democratic movements, such as the so-called Cedar Revolution of 2005 in that forced Syrian troops out of the country. In extreme cases, they might be forced from power.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon

12. Don't Give Up on Democracy Promotion

Author:
Nathan J. Brown, Amr Hamzawy, and Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Even as the United States is preoccupied with how to stabilize and withdraw from Iraq, it risks missing another important opportunity to promote democracy in the Middle East. Among Arab countries Egypt is uniquely positioned to make a transition from authoritarian rule to a more liberal system and eventually to democracy. A looming presidential succession in Egypt makes such changes more feasible. But after several years of modest reforms, the Egyptian government is now backtracking and enshrining illiberal measures in its revised constitution. The United States faces a critical decision about whether to pursue reform seriously with Egypt or to abandon the project of promoting Arab democracy, at least for now.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Democratization
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

13. The Draft Party Platform of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood: Foray Into Political Integration or Retreat Into Old Positions?

Author:
Nathan J. Brown and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In the late summer 2007, amid great anticipation from Egypt's ruling elite and opposition movements, the Muslim Brotherhood distributed the first draft of a party platform to a group of intellectuals and analysts. The platform was not to serve as a document for an existing political party or even one about to be founded: the Brotherhood remains without legal recognition in Egypt and Egypt's rulers and the laws they have enacted make the prospect of legal recognition for a Brotherhood-founded party seem distant. But the Brotherhood's leadership clearly wished to signal what sort of party they would found if allowed to do so.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

14. Fighting on Two Fronts: Secular Parties in the Arab World

Author:
Amr Hamzawy and Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Secular parties in the Arab world—a broad range of political organizations that vary in their political orientation from liberal positions to vaguely socialist programs—are facing a crisis. Caught between regimes that allow little legal space for free political activity on one side and popular Islamist movements that are clearly in the ascendancy throughout the Arab world on the other, they are struggling for influence and relevance, and in some cases even for survival.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Arabia

15. Islamist Movements in the Arab World and the 2006 Lebanon War

Author:
Amr Hamzawy and Dina Bishara
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The 2006 Lebanon war has had a profound effect on Islamist movements that have chosen to compete as legal parties in the political systems of their countries, testing their relationship with the ruling regimes as well as their respect for pluralism and tolerance.
Topic:
International Relations, Islam, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Lebanon

16. The Saudi Labyrinth: Evaluating the Current Political Opening

Author:
Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Recent years have witnessed unprecedented political dynamism in Saudi Arabia. Since 2002, the government has pursued various reform policies. Its most relevant measures have included reforming the Shura Council, holding municipal elections, legalizing civil society actors, implementing educational reform plans, and institutionalizing national dialogue conferences. Although these measures appear less significant when compared with political developments in other Arab countries, such as Lebanon and Egypt, they constitute elements of a meaningful opening in Saudi authoritarian politics.</p
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Egypt

17. Islamist Movements and the Democratic Process in the Arab World: Exploring Gray Zones

Author:
Nathan J. Brown, Amr Hamzawy, and Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In today's Arab world, Islamists have assumed the role once played by national liberation movements and leftist parties. They are the mass movements of the twenty-first century. They are well embedded in the social fabric, understand the importance of good organization, and are thus able to mobilize considerable constituencies. Their ideology prescribes a simple solution to the persistent crises of contemporary Arab societies—a return to the fundamentals, or true spirit, of Islam. Indeed, “Islam is the solution” has been the longtime slogan of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. Like all successful movements, Islamists have been able to distill a long, complex philosophical tradition into simple slogans that have quickly supplanted the Pan-Arabism and socialism that dominated the region until the 1970s. As a result, in most countries Islamists represent the only viable opposition forces to existing undemocratic regimes.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries

18. The Key to Arab Reform: Moderate Islamists

Author:
Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Before any significant political reform can take place in the Arab world, the United States and Europe need to begin engaging moderate Islamists, an action less thorny than it might seem because Islamists have embraced democratic procedures and have shown a strong commitment to the rule of law. For a long time Arab regimes have frightened the United States and Europe into supporting regimes' repressive measures toward Islamist movements by invoking the nightmare of anti-Western fanatics taking power through the ballot box. However, today's moderate Islamists—while illiberal in many important respects—no longer match the nightmare. Excluding them from the political sphere weakens the chances of democratic reform and increases the likelihood that eventually they will resort to violence.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Arabia