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2. Syria: Unrest and Cracks in the Status Quo
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Syria is witnessing both nonviolent and violent turmoil that extends in an arc from the north to the east, the most prominent of which disintegrating the pillars of the regime in the Sweida region, as well as the structure that brings together the SDF with some tribal factions under American backing in the eastern areas near Deir ez-Zor. These dynamics may evolve into changes in the structure and scope of control.
- Topic:
- Protests, Syrian War, Civil Unrest, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, Suwayda, and Deir e-Zor
3. Idlib: The New Strategic Nucleus of the Battle over Syria
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- After Turkey’s unsuccessful ultimatum set for the Syrian regime and its Russian ally to commit to the Sochi Agreement, Ankara has targeted the Assad regime and its allies’ locations along the de-escalation zone by launching Operation Spring Shield. Russia has capitalized on Turkey’s anger by offering an agreement establishing new facts on ground during a Turkish-Russian summit on March 5th.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Idlib
4. Daesh Trumps Assad Amid Shifting International Priorities in Syria
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As the Syrian crisis enters its fifth year, regional and international priorities in Syria have changed as a result of Daesh or the so-called Islamic State (IS) group’s expansion. Attempts to repackage the conflict and transform its essence into “fighting terrorism” have increased. In this context, initiatives have been launched to revamp the Syrian regime’s image on the grounds that the conditions that led to the first Geneva Communique no longer exist.(1) However, the prospect that Assad’s regime can be rehabilitated to make it acceptable domestically, regionally or internationally are at best a delusion. The regime’s repressive policies during the years that followed the revolution’s outbreak has made it a polarising rather than a unifying actor, one that has broken all possible lines of political capital and made its institutions even more sectarian during the crisis. In addition, armed groups representing divergent trends have emerged, and they will necessarily play a major role in any future arrangement, one that will not present itself unless power is redistributed in a way that changes the existing system’s structure.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
5. Repercussions of Shifting Power in Syria
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The recent successive setbacks suffered by Assad regime forces are causing as much alarm among Bashar al-Assad’s opponents as they are among his allies. This has also prompted the political opposition to try to use the new shift in the balance of power to push for a political process that would lead to a transitional phase, ending more than four years of deadly conflict that can be easily called a brutal civil war. The Syrian armed opposition, despite appearing more and more like a tiny detail in a much larger game of regional and international interests, can still force changes to regional and global agendas, just as much as it can still force the regime and its allies to change tactics on the ground. All that alone, however, is nowhere near enough. Unless translated into real, tangible political results that would maintain Syria’s unity, and help rebuild the country, the opposition’s victories on the ground will remain but mere, isolated events of little significance.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
6. Consent by Force: Strategies to Avoid Failure in Syria
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Geneva II did not bring about any significant humanitarian or political advancement. The Assad regime attended the talks under pressure from Russia and in order to avoid being labelled as the party refusing a peaceful solution. The regime’s unwillingness to negotiate during the talks was unprecedented because it perceived that both regional and military contexts were more favourable to it than they had been prior to the Geneva invitation. However, the perception that things are in the regime’s favour is a mirage. The catastrophic humanitarian situation is threatening the international mood, especially given that Geneva II has thus far been an exercise in absurdity. Another American announcement to supply light-calibre weapons to the Syrian opposition highlights the possibility of escalation of fighting, forcing the negotiation process forward as the more desirable option.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
7. Syrian Presidential Elections: Final Blow to Geneva
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- With interest in the Geneva conference’s lacklustre progress fading, and the Syrian regime’s presidential election showcase, any prospects for a political solution based on the 30 June 2012 Geneva declaration have been completely erased. The declaration, which was the basis for Geneva II in January 2014, had called for the formation of a transitional government drawn from both the regime and the opposition. Given this reality, and with the international community’s attention turned to other issues, the possibility of a political solution will be set even further back after the recent 3 June 2014 elections. It is likely that both parties to the conflict – the regime and its allies as well as the opposition and its supporters – will continue to strengthen their military and negotiating positions before any potential political process is launched. In addition, unpublicised contact between Iran and western countries will continue as a “second track” of the Syrian crisis.
- Topic:
- Syrian War, Revolution, Presidential Elections, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
8. Syrian Opposition: Risks of Fragmentation and Necessity of Consensus
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Syrian revolution’s landscape, with several centers of political and military power rather than one unified center, seems to be accelerating towards a breakdown. A number of factors, including the path towards Geneva II, lukewarm US-Saudi ties, wider differences between the internal and external opposition and the formation of the Syrian Islamic Front, have contributed to this impending breakdown. If the opposition is able to form an interim government despite considerable uncertainties as well as despite the necessary link with and responsibility to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, it will provide a great opportunity to strengthen the relationship between internal opposition groups and those abroad. The most urgent challenge to the Syrian revolution today is enhancing confidence of all political and military powers in such a way that consensus is built on all levels. Anything short of that will render the revolution (militarily and politically) even more vulnerable to the changing winds around it.
- Topic:
- Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, Revolution, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria