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Begin New Search Topic Civil War Author Al Jazeera Center for Studies

1. The Battle of Western Mosul: Stakes and prospects

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
This paper reviews the importance of western Mosul to all parties in the conflict: the Iraqi forces and their allies, on the one hand, and the Islamic State’s forces, on the other, and the obstacles to any of these parties resolving the conflict. It also touches on the extent of their forces and the clear dominance of the offensive forces, and it discusses the military strategies for the battle and potential outcomes in addition to the available options for the Islamic State (IS). It anticipates an end to the fight in favour of the Iraqi forces within a few weeks if the battle and its results progress at a similar pace to that of its first week. This will depend on any unaccounted for variables during the battle that would change the equation on the ground. It concludes by discussing the available options for IS after the battle ends, with the expectation that IS will fight until the end; while its commanders will inevitability lose the battle, this will not eliminate threats to security and stability in Iraq in the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and International Security
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

2. Between Astana and Geneva: The outlook of conflicting agendas in the Syrian crisis

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the Astana process, Moscow seems to be in a race against time to establish the foundations of a solution in Syria before arriving in Geneva: first, by reforming the opposition’s delegation to the negotiations, an effort Moscow has been working on ever since the military intervention in Syria began, and second, by redrawing the solution’s main parameters, which Moscow exerted great effort towards during marathon negotiations conducted with the former US Secretary of State, John Kerry. Through these negotiations, Moscow has been able to change the rules at Geneva by prioritising an agreement to change the constitution, followed by the formation of a non-sectarian representative government, and then calling for presidential elections with Assad’s participation, so ‘the Syrian people can decide his fate’.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, and International Security
Political Geography:
Syria

3. Syria: Fate of Assad Impedes Success of Geneva III

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
This policy brief examines developments regarding resolution of the Syrian issue, particularly in light of three key events: Russia’s announcement of a withdrawal, Geneva III talks and the opposition’s latest announcement that they wanted the talks to cease given increasing aggression on civilian areas. For the opposition belonging to the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), Assad cannot have a role in Syria’s political future, particularly given that his regime and its allies is responsible for 95 per cent of the casualties in the country, far exceeding any other actors in Syria, including the Islamic State organisation.(1) This policy brief looks at the outcomes of the third round of Geneva III, what Russia has gained from its intervention and so-called withdrawal, and argues that any future proposals for Syria which maintain Assad’s position will result in continuation of fighting.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Civil War
Political Geography:
Syria