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9561. Future of trade relations within the 16+1 group: risks and opportunities

Author:
Vilem Semerak
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
The paper provides an overview of stylized facts on current trends in trade between the PRC and the 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The potential effects of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative are discussed as are policy recommendations for the CEE countries. Trade with China is seen as complementary to trade with the core of the EU (and with the mutual trade of the CEE region,) once the international fragmentation of value chains is taken into account. Multilateral and plurilateral (e.g. EU-based) approaches to relations with China are likely to generate fewer risks compared to isolated solutions based on national interest pursued individually by CEE countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Multilateral Relatons
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

9562. Coming out of the shadows: the Polish perspective on China–Central and Eastern Europe relations

Author:
Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
In the last two decades, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have not played an important role in China’s foreign policy and vice-versa. EU membership did not change China–CEE relations remarkably. The situation started to change once the global financial and economic crisis hit. CEE began to notice that China is an economic and political partner to be reckoned with. Meanwhile, despite the crisis, the PRC started to look at CEE as a stable region – especially in economic terms. At the beginning China decided to strengthen bilateral ties with CEE countries. But in mid-2011 Beijing took the first step to launch cooperation with CEE as a region,
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China and Central Europe

9563. Blowing from the East

Author:
Agnes Szunomar
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
China is increasingly perceived in Central and Eastern Europe as a country which could bring economic success to the countries of the region through the development of trade relations and the growing inflow of Chinese investment. Within the region, Hungary is regarded as occupying a prominent position by Chinese people and the government for several reasons. Chinese relations have historically been good: over the past decade Hungarian governments have committed themselves to developing the relationship. This trend was further confirmed after the global economic crisis of 2008, when Hungary started looking for new opportunities in its recovery from recession. The “Eastern opening” policy was initiated after the crisis and partly because of it. Officially, this policy puts more emphasis on further developing Chinese–Hungarian relations than was previously the case, including increasing trade and investment. However, the outcomes of the policy – such as the construction of the Budapest–Belgrade railway line – can be evaluated in different ways.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Central Europe

9564. Migration from China to Slovakia

Author:
Peter Ondris
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
While numerous specialist studies about Chinese communities have been published in other countries in the region, this is not the case in Slovakia. Therefore there is a general lack of information about the Chinese community in Slovakia. The objective of this study is, at least partially, to fill this gap. While in many cases, i.e. in Central and Eastern Europe, businesses run by Chinese migrants have contributed to the economic stabilization of the region, including in Slovakia. It should be noted that the number of Chinese people in Slovakia has in the last ten years decreased as a percentage of the foreigners living legally in Slovakia. One could assess this as being a consequence of Slovakia’s EU membership and its adoption of European legislation. The Slovak government has adopted policies to try to change the nature of Chinese migration to Slovakia and attract more educated people and businessmen.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Multilateral Relatons
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, Hungary, Central Europe, and Slovakia

9565. Where the Lions Are: Gazprom's "Energetic Pliers" and Aspirations of a Eurasian Archipelago: The Geopolitics of Russia's Networked Energy Infrastructure

Author:
John Haines
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Book
Abstract:
In a recent essay, George Friedman wrote with admirable clarity about an intelligence truism that is at one and the same time elemental and frequently overlooked: “The entire principle of strategic intelligence is to ruthlessly discard the subcritical noise that is being collected in order to identify the center of gravity of events. A tiny hint may sometimes draw attention to a major process, particularly in military affairs. Finding that tiny hint, however, requires huge amounts of time and effort, and little time is left to understand the meaning. Moreover, in many cases, the process is in plain sight. The trick is to see it, and the even harder trick is to believe it.” With that charge, the objective of this essay is to look at Russia’s network of natural gas pipelines and ethnic enclaves in its near abroad in the interest of exploring whether and how the two intersect. The initial hypothesis is that ethnic separatism is instrumental to the former in two fundamental ways. First, these enclaves are located geographically along major energy pipeline routes, often at key junctures in pipeline networks. Second, they sit atop substantial shale gas reserves, the determined exploitation of which would decisively undercut Russia's natural gas oligopoly. They constitute specific, identifiable “spheres of privileged interests” in Russian foreign policy. The idea for this essay began with a conversation with a Moldovan diplomat about Transnistria, a separatist region of his country that has amassed a staggering debt—in excess of $5 billion—for the purchase of Russian natural gas. Russia's use of this debt to exert political pressure on Moldova is a story broadly understood.[4]
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia

9566. The New Innovator’s Commercialization Dilemma

Author:
James Hinton and Kent Howe
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This report outlines the impetus behind the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) International Intellectual Property Law Clinic, which operated for three months in 2014. It consisted of a partnership among the CIGI International Law Research Program (ILRP), Communitech (the Region of Waterloo’s hub for commercialization of innovative technologies) and leading intellectual property (IP) law firms. The report describes the new innovator’s commercialization dilemma — a multifaceted dilemma arising from lack of IP legal knowledge, lack of financial resources and the high costs associated with IP protection, all of which combine to place the new innovator in a vulnerable position at the early stages of their commercialization timeline. After briefly surveying the current environment for entrepreneurship-based clinics, the report describes the elements and structure of the CIGI clinic. The advantages for participating students as well as first-hand accounts of the benefits of the CIGI clinic are also detailed. Taking lessons learned from the CIGI clinic, the report illustrates how an IP-focused law clinic can help to address the commercialization dilemma. The report describes the manner in which IP clinics might be structured, while reviewing the associated benefits and challenges for each structure. The report also makes brief recommendations for governments, law societies, law schools and IP offices to support the provision of IP legal services through the law clinic model.
Topic:
Environment, International Trade and Finance, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Governance, and Entrepreneurship
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9567. Toward a Social Compact for Digital Privacy and Security

Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On the occasion of the April 2015 Global Conference on Cyberspace meeting in The Hague, the Global Commission on Internet Governance calls on the global community to build a new social compact between citizens and their elected representatives, the judiciary, law enforcement and intelligence agencies, business, civil society and the Internet technical community, with the goal of restoring trust and enhancing confidence in the Internet. It is now essential that governments, collaborating with all other stakeholders, take steps to build confidence that the right to privacy of all people is respected on the Internet. This statement provides the Commission’s view of the issues at stake and describes in greater detail the core elements that are essential to achieving a social compact for digital privacy and security.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Communications, Mass Media, Governance, Digital Economy, and Internet
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9568. Just Enough, Just in Time: Improving Sovereign Debt Restructuring for Creditors, Debtors and Citizens

Author:
Richard Gitlin and Brett House
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Recent international financial turmoil — most notably in Greece — has refocused attention on the risks posed by severe sovereign debt crises and weaknesses in our approaches to restructuring sovereign debt. Since early 2010, these risks have driven a range of debt-related policy proposals and actions in individual economies, across regions and at the international financial institutions. While some incremental first reform steps have been taken, these have not yet produced a more efficient, effective or resilient international framework for handling severe sovereign debt crises and effecting sovereign debt workouts. In contrast, some institutional and policy changes made in the heat of the euro-zone crisis have raised as many questions as they have resolved. Old policy ideas are also being resurrected and configured in new ways for current challenges. After years of substantial fiscal stimulus and exceptional monetary policies, high debt burdens across the advanced economies, fears of secular stagnation, signs of an imminent increase in US borrowing costs and deteriorating demographics together make a compelling case for concerted action to improve international arrangements for dealing with distressed sovereign debt.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9569. Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies: A Threat to Financial Stability?

Author:
Barry Eichengreen, Domenico Lombardi, Malcolm D. Knight, Yu Yongding, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Diane De Gramont, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Phillip R. Lane, Ugo Panizza, and Viral V. Acharya
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
During 1999-2007, the international balance sheets of emerging economies grew stronger through a combination of current account surpluses, a shift from debt funding to equity funding, and the stockpiling of liquid foreign reserves. This risk-mitigating strategy improved the international financial standing of many emerging economies and helped these economies withstand the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. However, a combination of domestic and external factors has led to a partial reversal of this strategy, with some emerging economies accumulating significant external debt since 2010. Previewed by the May 2013 “taper tantrum,” there has been considerable speculation that a tightening of dollar-funding conditions and a macroeconomic slowdown in emerging economies may result in financial instability in some emerging economies.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9570. Next Steps for the G20: Turkey 2015

Author:
Paul Martin, Thomas A. Bernes, Olaf Weber, Hongying Wang, and Kevin Carmichael
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On November 15-16, 2015, leaders of the world's major advanced and emerging economies will meet in Antalya, Turkey for the G20 summit. In this special report, CIGI experts present their perspectives and policy analysis on the key priorities facing the G20 at Antalya. The Right Honourable Paul Martin states that the multilateral institutions created to make globalization work should be a G20 priority. Thomas A. Bernes asks whether G20 leaders and the institutions that support them can articulate a “policy upgrade” that brings more credibility than last year’s Brisbane Action Plan. Olaf Weber argues that the next step for the G20 should be the development of policies and guidelines that help to manage climate change and financial risk in a prudential way. Hongying Wang examines China's rare opportunity as it assumes the presidency of the G20 to push for collective new thinking on how to establish a less fragmented and more coherent global framework for investment governance that balances the interests of different stakeholders. Finally, Kevin Carmichael suggests that the G20 should elevate gender balance to the top of its agenda.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Governance, G20, Financial Markets, and Turkey
Political Geography:
Global Focus