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9331. After the freefall, what to expect from commodity prices

Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
After the plunge in commodity prices in 2015, the outlook for raw materials remains highly uncertain amid slowing economic growth in China and looming interest rate rises in the US. In China—which gobbles up nearly one-half of the world’s consumption of aluminium, copper and coal—demand for base materials risks moderating further as the economy moves away from an investment-driven growth model. This will continue to have knock-on effects on the performance of commodity-exporting economies, weighing down on global consumption of raw materials. However, supply responses are beginning to emerge from commodity producers worldwide. Coupled with less favourable weather prospects, this will lead to some market tightening next year, allowing for some price stabilisation after four years of decline. This report provides a snapshot of The Economist Intelligence Unit’s current commodity price indexes, exploring the changing prices for industrial raw materials and food, feedstuffs & beverages. Each article provides analysis and forecasts across a number of key commodities, helping you to assess the fast-changing environment of commodity markets and influence key decision-making processes.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
China

9332. Managing Change at the United Nations: Lessons from Recent Initiatives

Author:
Francesco Mancini
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
As the United Nations celebrates is seventieth anniversary, the organization faces growing systemic stresses placed on it by emerging global challenges and rapidly shifting political and security dynamics. Such challenges have sparked a renewed interest in reform. The latest report by IPI examines past initiatives for change within the UN, as well as obstacles to reforms and their implementation. The report illustrates examples of successful processes of institutional transformation and highlights six waves of UN reform that have occurred since the end of the Cold War, including Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s Change Plan of 2011.
Topic:
Security, International Organization, Politics, United Nations, and Reform
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9333. Deploying Combined Teams: Lessons Learned from Operational Partnerships in UN Peacekeeping

Author:
Adam Smith, Paul D. Williams, and Donald C.F. Daniel
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Only fifteen United Nations’ member states provide more than 60 percent of the 104,000 UN uniformed personnel deployed worldwide. How can a more equitable sharing of the global peacekeeping burden be produced that generates new capabilities for UN operations? Operational partnerships are one potentially useful mechanism to further this agenda. They are partnerships that occur when military units from two or more countries combine to deploy as part of a peacekeeping operation. This report assesses the major benefits and challenges of these partnerships for UN peace operations at both the political and operational levels.
Topic:
International Organization, United Nations, Reform, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9334. Europe’s Return to UN Peacekeeping in Africa? Lessons from Mali

Author:
John Karlsrud and Adam C. Smith
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In a break from recent tradition, European member states are currently contributing significant military capabilities to a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operation in Africa. Europeans are providing more than 1,000 troops to the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) by staffing a wide range of operations including an intelligence fusion cell, transport and attack aircraft, and special forces. Yet for European troop-contributing countries (TCCs) that have spent several years working in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operations in Afghanistan, participating in a UN mission has been a process of learning and adaptation. For the UN, the contributions of key capabilities by European countries have pushed the UN system to adjust to the higher expectations of the new European TCCs, which has proved difficult in Mali’s complicated operating environment and political situation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

9335. Safety and Security Challenges in UN Peace Operations

Author:
Haidi Willmot, Scott Sheeran, and Lisa Sharland
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Since the tragic bombing of the UN headquarters in Iraq in 2003, a concerted effort has been made to improve and strengthen security arrangements across the UN system. However, too often, security issues are perceived as primarily technical matters that are not prioritized as strategically and politically important. This report takes stock of the strategic impact of safety and security for effective peace operations by outlining the evolving, increasingly hostile security context into which operations are being deployed and its implications for personnel. The authors assess existing UN management structures, policies, and processes to identify potential areas of reform. As they examine the diverse range of challenges and considerations for improving security of UN peace operations, they argue that effective security is about protecting UN personnel while enabling, not limiting, operational activity.
Topic:
Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Reform
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9336. Why We Fail to Prevent Mass Atrocities

Author:
Alex J. Bellamy and Adam Lupel
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
In the twenty years since the Rwandan genocide, the United Nations has developed an extensive body of policies, principles, and institutions dedicated to preventing mass atrocity crimes. But in recent years the killing of unarmed civilians has become all too prevalent again, from Syria to Iraq and South Sudan to the Central African Republic. So why does atrocity prevention fail? This is the central question addressed in the International Peace Institute’s new report, “Why We Fail: Obstacles to the Effective Prevention of Mass Atrocity.” The report explores the principal obstacles to effective prevention efforts and the strategies needed to improve the UN’s ability to respond. It considers the UN’s opportunities and constraints in different contexts, where the world body has a substantial field presence or limited or no presence on the ground
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Peacekeeping, and War Crimes
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9337. Reimagining Peacemaking: Women’s Roles in Peace Processes

Author:
Marie O'Reilly, Andrea Ó Súilleabháin, and Thania Paffenholz
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Peace and political transition processes provide key opportunities to transform institutions, structures, and relationships in societies affected by conflict or crises. Despite these wide-ranging implications, women’s participation in formal peacemaking remains low. And empirical evidence regarding the impact of women’s participation on peace has been lacking. The International Peace Institute’s new report, “Reimagining Peacemaking: Women’s Roles in Peace Processes” examines the challenges and opportunities presented by women’s participation in peace and transition processes. It shares new quantitative and qualitative evidence on the impact of this participation and explores models and strategies for strengthening women’s influence throughout mediated processes. Based on research carried out at the International Peace Institute in New York and the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, the new report shows how the lag in women’s participation is linked to broader dilemmas in the peacemaking landscape today. Drawing on a comparative study of forty peace and transition processes from the Broadening Participation Project, it demonstrates that when women are able to effectively influence a peace process, a peace agreement is almost always reached and the agreement is more likely to be implemented. The report also features a case study on two distinct peace processes in the Philippines, where an unprecedented level of women’s participation offers lessons on their influence
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Women
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9338. Securing Education for Syrian Refugees in Jordan

Author:
Mona Christophersen
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Approximately 40 percent of school-age Syrian refugees in Jordan are not getting an education. As the Syrian war has entered its fifth year and humanitarian actors seek to bridge short-term humanitarian assistance with longer-term development goals, about 80,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan are still falling through the cracks when it comes to education. This new report assesses the state of education for Syrian refugees in Jordan. It finds that despite generous efforts by the Jordanian government, the UN, and nongovernmental organizations to provide quality education for Syrian refugees, five significant impediments remain: - economic barriers in the education system and in Syrian refugee households - legal and regulatory obstacles to school enrollment, - educational divides between Syrian and Jordanian students, - social tensions in schools, and competing priorities for refugee households.
Topic:
Education, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Syria and Jordan

9339. Silencing the Guns: Strengthening Governance to Prevent, Manage, and Resolve Conflicts in Africa

Author:
Gilbert Khadiagala
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Since independence, African states and organizations have made significant investments in conflict management and resolution tools. So why do some African states and regions remain saddled by conflict and instability? How can African states leverage democratic governance to end wars? The new report Silencing the Guns suggests that the key to ending conflict in Africa lies in fostering effective governance and creating political and economic institutions that can effectively prevent, manage, and resolve conflicts. Author Gilbert Khadiagala unpacks how and why democratic governance is linked to conflict prevention and management, and provides an overview of landmark trends that have influenced governance in Africa since the 1950s. He shows that not all forms of democratic governance reduce conflicts and examines the ways in which “developmental dictatorships,” corruption, and the privatization of security are posing obstacles for governance and peace today.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

9340. State Formation, Humanitarianism, and Institutional Capabilities in South Sudan

Author:
Peter Biar Ajak
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
As South Sudan’s fourth anniversary approaches, the fractured state teeters on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe that has left millions in need of aid as a result of renewed fighting in the ongoing civil war. The relapse into conflict has been an enormous setback for statebuilding, curtailing efforts to ensure that humanitarian relief reaches all civilians in need of it. Through the nexus of humanitarianism and state formation, this issue brief assesses the international humanitarian system’s engagement in South Sudan during the period from statehood in July 2011 to the period immediately prior to the outbreak of the December 2013 crisis. Aside from responding to short-term needs, the author argues that humanitarianism ought to fit into the overall political strategy of supporting the process of state formation. The report outlines the enormous needs and challenges facing South Sudan since independence, its emerging humanitarian crises, and the response of humanitarian actors and donors. It addresses South Sudan’s unique challenges of state formation and the importance of linking long-term state capacity building to aid delivery. To advance aid delivery and improve implementation capacity in South Sudan, the author offers the following recommendations: Meaningfully involve government in the design and execution of aid projects. Finance projects that build on existing capacities at the lower tier of administration. Consider direct cash transfers. Raise local salaries to attract talent into the government. Finance public works projects.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Humanitarian Aid, and Governance
Political Geography:
South Sudan