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57511. An International Methodology for Evaluation of Combat Capabilities of Military Systems: The Bulgarian Perspective of Greater Transparency and Confidence

Author:
Volodya Kotsev
Publication Date:
10-1996
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The problems of peace and security in Europe occupy an important place in the public conscience. New ways of improvement of the security situation are constantly being examined. The lessons learned from the terrible events in former Yugoslavia show us there is a lot to be done. Europe needs new and better instruments for strengthening of stability and security, applicable to all countries. This Research Report offers some ideas in that direction. The dissolution of the Warsaw Pact increased the number of countries in Europe whose national security interests are being defended mainly by themselves. The usefulness of all the international efforts, like the Helsinki Final Act, the Declaration of Madrid Meeting and the CFE Treaty is indisputable. They treat the problems of the then existing two opposing military alliances. The efforts of the people who gave birth to these processes deserve the highest estimation and respect. Now new steps towards a further development of the confidence and the security of our continent are needed. Our special interest is directed to a higher transparency in the military area.
Topic:
Security, Military Affairs, Weapons, Transparency, and Political System
Political Geography:
Europe and Bulgaria

57512. Confidence and Security in the Balkans: The Role of Transparency in Defence Budgeting

Author:
Tilcho K. Ivanov
Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
The Balkan security is a measure and a means for guaranteeing an acceptable level of economic welfare, human freedoms and stable peace for the states in the subregion and for the whole of Europe. The traditional views of a military concept about the building of state's security systems (by means of defending their integrity, sovereignty and independence) are focused on the usage of power in the international relations. If we take a deeper look into the Balkan security problem we will see that these views are getting more and more irrelevant to the new strategic environment. Though the military fundamental does not disappear, it gives way to other determinants. It is getting more and more obvious that the erosion of the economic and the social public tissue eats away the traditional institutions of the law, of the power and of the statehood. It also aggravates the building of modern civil society. The economic and social destabilization leads to the escalation of crises and conflicts, that pass over the reasonable political and legal limits. The acute clash of interests takes the uncivilized guise of genocide, ethnic cleansing, terrorism and other crimes against humanity. In the new strategic conditions security means more than territory and sovereignty. Economic security and welfare and the protection of civil rights begin to dominate subregional security. More and more often we also add to the latter the problems of national and transnational security. These three factors form the foundations of the stable regional development concept. When we combine them with the opportunities for technological transfer they give us the real measure of social development, there by contributing to keep crises under control, to prevent conflicts and to build peace.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Budget
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

57513. The Democratic Control Of Armed Forces

Author:
Rudolf Joo
Publication Date:
02-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Political control of armed forces is not a problem that has confronted only liberal democracies of the twentieth century. Even less is it an issue challenging only the democratizing societies of Central and Eastern Europe in the l990s. The crucial dilemma -- that a separate armed body established in order to protect a society might pose a threat to that same society -- goes back to antiquity. The ever-relevant question of who guards the guards was a central issue in Plato's dialogue The Republic, written about 2,500 years ago. Plato, in presenting what he considered to be the right order of society, described the military state as a deviation. Ancient Greece and the Roman Empire were both confronted with the dilemma `sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?' The question has remained the same over the centuries, but as armed forces and society have changed, the nature of the problem has also changed.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Greece

57514. Cutting Losses: Reflections On Appropriate Timing

Author:
Christopher R. Mitchell
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University
Abstract:
The field of conflict resolution has reached a point in its evolution where hunches and intuitive guesses are being transformed into testable theoretical propositions. Nowhere is this more important than in the debate about when conflicts are “ripe for resolution.”
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies

57515. Palestinian Refugees and the Peace Process

Author:
Elia Zureik
Publication Date:
05-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
As a discipline, refugee studies is of a recent vintage and very much influenced by the more established tradition of migration studies. Analysis of (voluntary) migration tends to focus on individuals rather than groups. To the extent that groups are considered, they are treated as aggregates of individuals rather than as cohesive social units in the sociological sense of constituting communities with shared common historical experiences (Shami 1993). In contrast with immigrant status, refugee status is the outcome of involuntary forms of migration, in which displacement is often caused by events beyond the control of refugees, such as internal and external wars, state policies of expulsion and exclusion, development projects, and natural disasters.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Migration, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Middle East

57516. Energy and Security in Northeast Asia

Author:
Michael May, Michael Stankiewicz, Edward Fei, Celeste Johnson, and Tatsujiro Suzuki
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Since 1993, the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), a state-wide policy research institute of the University of California, has coordinated a series of high-level, track two consultations among security experts and officials from China, Japan, North and South Korea, Russia, and the United States. Known as the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), this forum has sought to reduce mistrust within the North Pacific region, and to avert conflicts among the major powers in Asia through ongoing, multilateral dialogues about current security issues. The informality of the process allows the participants to air their concerns and brainstorm about new approaches to building cooperation and reducing the risk of conflict in Northeast Asia.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Asia, Korea, and Northeast Asia

57517. Symposium on UN Global Conferences

Author:
Benjamin Rivlin, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, Arthur M. Schlesinger, Mehr Kahn, Jyoti Shankar Singh, Elissavet Stamatopoulou, Nitin Desai, John Mathiason, Waly N-Dow, and Paul M. Kennedy
Publication Date:
02-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies, City University of New York
Abstract:
When the record of the United Nations during its first half-century of existence is remembered in history, the continuum of UN-sponsored global conferences from the "Children's Summit in 1990 to the City Summit in 1996" will emerge as perhaps the most important contribution of the organized world community to the furtherance of human well-being. Neither mentioned nor foreseen in the Charter of the United Nations, these global conferences represent a notable example of innovation that is possible within the framework of the Charter to meet the challenges posed by changing conditions and circumstances in the world.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and United Nations

57518. Theoretical Confidence Level Problems with Confidence Intervals for the Spectrum of a Time Series

Author:
Jon Faust
Publication Date:
12-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Textbook approaches to forming asymptotically justified confidence intervals for the spectrum under very general assumptions were developed by the mid-1970s. This paper shows that under the textbook assumptions, the true confidence level for these intervals does not converge to the asymptotic level, and instead is fixed at zero in all sample sizes. The paper explores necessary conditions for solving this problem, most notably showing that under weak conditions, forming valid confidence intervals requires that one limit consideration to a finite-dimensional time series model.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Education

57519. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle

Author:
Jon Faust and John S. Irons
Publication Date:
11-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics

57520. The Accumulation of Human Capital: Alternative Methods and Why They Matter

Author:
Ann L. Owen and Murat F. Iyigun
Publication Date:
05-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We show how the ability o accumulate human capital through formal education and through a learning-by-doing process that occurs on the job affects the dynamic behavior of the human capital stock under a liquidity constrained and a non-constrained case. When there are alternatives to formal schooling in the accumulation of human capital, investing resources in increasing school enrollment rates in low-income countries may not be the most efficient means of increasing the human capital stock. In addition, removal of the liquidity constraints may not be sufficient to escape a development trap.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Education, and International Trade and Finance