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451. Playing the long game: Russia in the Mediterranean

Author:
Giangiuseppe Pili, Alessio Armenzoni, Gary C. Kessler, and Diane M. Zorri
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Russia has fi rmly re-established its presence in the Mediterranean. Satellite imagery and geospatial analysis reveal that Russia is currently more active in North Africa and the Middle East, including operating a shadow fl eet of tankers that economically sustains Putin’s regime and its war eff orts in Ukraine. Given its size and capabilities, the current Russian squadron is not intended to engage in a full-scale naval battle against any NATO fl eet. Instead, it is deliberately kept weak enough to avoid being perceived as a major military threat.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Navy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Mediterranean

452. The hunt for Red October in warmer oceans: Climate change and anti-submarine warfare

Author:
Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Security scholars have traditionally looked at climate change from the perspective of civil wars, migrations and pervasive instability. NATO has recently started looking at climate change as one of the main threatmultipliers characterizing the current international system. Climate change can have a real impact on interstate rivalry and strategic competition, specifi cally by aff ecting water temperatures, currents and salinity, and thus sonar performance – a key asset in submarine and
Topic:
NATO, Climate Change, Armed Forces, Strategic Competition, Submarines, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Oceans

453. How China sees the future and what it means for NATO

Author:
Alice Politi
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
China’s military expansion and its geopolitical ambitions, especially in the Indo-Pacifi c macro-area, potentially present growing challenges for NATO. Offi cial documents show that the reunifi cation with Taiwan plays a critical role in China’s 2049 “Great Rejuvenation” goals. However, China’s military capabilities are still too limited to allow for an intervention in Taiwan in the short term. Despite China’s rapid progress in outer space and military sectors, internal challenges such as slowing economic growth and demographic issues raise doubts about its ability to achieve long-term ambitions.
Topic:
NATO, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

454. How accurate is forecasting of military technologies?

Author:
Alexander Kott and Philip Perconti
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
We show that the accuracy of military technology forecasts is respectably high, 76% or better, depending on how an accurate forecast is defi ned. Long-term technology forecasting can be quite accurate and can inform NATO’s military research and development management decisions.
Topic:
NATO, Forecast, Research, and Military Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

455. Friends with benefits: Assessing Russian-Chinese military exercises

Author:
Narantsatsral Enkhbat
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
China-Russia joint strategic air patrols and naval manoeuvres near U.S. territory in the Pacifi c have become a growing trend, serving as geopolitical messaging. China is likely to become more involved in maritime security and power projection in the Arctic, as evidenced by its Coast Guard’s manoeuvres with Russia in the Northern Pacifi c. Russia conducts military drills and manoeuvres with China in the South China Sea (and potentially in the Taiwan Strait) to show support to China on territorial issues.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Geopolitics, Navy, Maritime, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

456. Two to tango: Russian-Iranian drone cooperation

Author:
Katie Fricke, Taylor Hankins, and Victoria Jones
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Iran and Russia are strengthening their partnership through collaboration on Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) development and deployment. Iran’s drone programme presents a multifaceted challenge to NATO. The acquisition of Western technology through reverse engineering, coupled with Iran’s growing reputation as a drone supplier, enhances its military capabilities and global infl uence. Russia’s use of Iranian drones in Ukraine exposes vulnerabilities in NATO-provided defence systems and undermines eff orts to protect member states and partner countries. The proliferation of this technology to other state and non-state actors complicates NATO’s defence strategies. It is important for NATO to understand the drone warfare dynamics shaped by the Russia-Iran partnership. Analysing their innovations and integration into military doctrines is crucial for anticipating threats and developing countermeasures.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Eurasia, and Middle East

457. Human Rights Impact Assessment of Bolton Food’s Canned Tuna Operations in Morocco

Author:
Giorgia Ceccarelli and Ana Pérez Adroher
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper reports on the second human rights impact assessment (HRIA) carried out by Oxfam at Nouvelle Cosarno, Bolton Food’s tuna cannery in the coastal city of Agadir, Morocco. The factory employs more than 400 workers, 90% of whom are performing manual tasks (blue-collar workers). Women make up the majority of the manual workers (71%). The main objectives of the assessment are: to identify the company’s actual and potential human rights risks and impacts at the production stages of its Moroccan factory; to identify the root causes of these risks and impacts; and to make recommendations to Bolton Food and key stakeholders on how to address, mitigate or remediate the actual and potential impacts identified. One main group of rights-holders was identified for the purposes of this assessment: male and female workers employed in canned fish processing plants (including canned sardine, tuna and shrimp) in Agadir.
Topic:
Human Rights, Labor Issues, Supply Chains, Wages, and Tuna
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

458. Human Rights Impact Assessment of Bolton Food’s Canned Tuna Supply Chain in Ecuador

Author:
Giorgia Ceccarelli
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper presents the first of three Human Rights Impact Assessments (HRIAs) conducted by Oxfam on behalf of Bolton Food, focusing on its tuna supply chain in Ecuador between 2021 and 2022. The assessment evaluates both actual and potential human rights impacts at the production stage of the value chain. It seeks to identify the root causes of these risks and impacts and to provide actionable recommendations to Bolton Food and relevant stakeholders on how to address, mitigate, or remediate them. For the purposes of this assessment, the primary group of rights-holders identified includes male and female workers employed in canned tuna processing plants in Manta, as well as male workers aboard tuna fishing vessels operating in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Topic:
Supply Chains, Tuna, Due Diligence, and Living Wage
Political Geography:
Latin America, Central America, and Ecuador

459. A (More) Feminist Approach to Principled Humanitarian Aid

Author:
Rachel Hastie
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Historically there has been very little discussion of feminism within the international humanitarian system. In recent years, some donor governments – including Canada, Mexico, and Germany – have adopted overtly feminist foreign policies and applied these to their strategies and guidance for humanitarian assistance. At the same time, aid actors have started to reconfigure their ways of working, vision, goals, and conceptualisation of humanitarianism in the light of decolonisation, anti-racism, local humanitarian leadership, and gender justice in the aid system. This discussion paper intends to prompt discussion and debate, by exploring what a feminist approach to principled humanitarian aid might look like practically, and what aid actors and the humanitarian system can to do to make it more of a reality.
Topic:
Feminism, Neutrality, Humanitarian Assistance, and Impartiality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

460. Takers Not Makers: The unjust poverty and unearned wealth of colonialism

Author:
Anjela Taneja, Anthony Kamande, Chandreyi Gunaray Gomez, Dana Abed, Max Lawson, and Neelanjana Mukhia
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Billionaire wealth has risen three times faster in 2024 than in 2023. Five trillionaires are now expected within a decade. Meanwhile, crises of economy, climate and conflict mean the number of people living in poverty has barely changed since 1990. Most billionaire wealth is taken, not earned- 60% comes from either inheritance, cronyism, corruption or monopoly power. Our deeply unequal world has a long history of colonial domination which has largely benefited the richest people. The poorest, racialized people, women and marginalized groups have been and continue to be systematically exploited at huge human costs. Today’s world remains colonial in many ways. This must be reversed. Reparations must be made to those who were brutally enslaved and colonised. Our modern-day colonial economic system must be made radically more equal to end poverty. The cost should be borne by the richest people who benefit the most.
Topic:
Inequality, Colonialism, Cronyism, Monopoly, Justice, Reparations, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus