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391. Addressing Climate-Induced Loss and Damage in South Coastal Bangladesh: Bridging Local Insights and National Policy Interventions

Author:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD)
Abstract:
This policy brief captures the key findings from Loss and Damage Policy Labs (LDPLs), a series of local and multi-level national policy dialogues held in Bangladesh in 2024. The LDPLs involved diverse stakeholders seeking to address climate-induced loss and damage (L&D) in Bangladesh, by fostering community-driven approaches and connecting local needs with the national policy landscape. The brief emphasizes local experiences in Bangladesh, particularly in its southern belt. It illustrates a case study from Barisal Division, which is representative of the wider vulnerable coastal region of Bangladesh. Addressing the climate risks threatening Bangladesh and its coastal region specifically requires a cohesive, inclusive, and evidence-based approach that integrates local perspectives into national frameworks while addressing both economic and non-economic loss and damage (NELD). Priorities include fostering community-driven, gender-sensitive solutions, enhancing capacities through training and robust assessment frameworks, and strengthening access to global climate finance through innovative mechanisms and transparent processes. By aligning local capacities, national policies, and international commitments and advocating for equitable support on global platforms, Bangladesh can pioneer effective climate resilience strategies, and serve as a model for other vulnerable nations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Climate Finance, Resilience, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

392. North Korea, Russia, and China: Past Cooperation & Future Prospects

Author:
Sydney Seiler
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Syd Seiler argues that recent developments in the relationship between North Korea, China, and Russia should be examined within the context of past interactions and North Korea’s geopolitical reality over the past several decades. North Korea’s pursuit of a distanced approach toward China and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, its post-Cold War management of the bilateral relationships while developing nuclear weapons, and contemporary developments within the North Korea-China-Russia triangle highlight limited shared interests and few signs of deliberate trilateralism. Despite skepticism regarding the durability of trilateralism, Seiler warns against neglecting the threat of collaboration and cooperation among the three countries. In particular, the evolving relationship between North Korea, China, and Russia holds the potential to harm the existing balance of power on the Korean Peninsula and embolden North Korea to believe that the use of force might be justified within the New Cold War structure. Seiler outlines three scenarios in which the evolution of trilateralism could lead to North Korea employing military force on the Korean Peninsula, highlighting the critical role of China and Russia in either restraining or encouraging North Korean revisionism. To properly respond to the dangerous transformation of the geopolitical environment, Seiler recommends the United States, South Korea, and like-minded states reinforce conventional and extended deterrence by convincing China and Russia that they will incur high costs for enabling North Korea’s coercive and revisionist behavior.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and North Korea

393. Siloed No More: The U.S.-ROK Alliance and a Taiwan Conflict

Author:
Clint Work
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
This project was motivated by and builds upon earlier research tracing the evolution and apparent alignment of U.S. and South Korean signaling on Taiwan, wherein the South Korean government adopted a more outspoken position regarding “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” and framed it in increasingly expansive terms—as a regional and global issue yet also directly linked to the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula. The previous research indicated the U.S.-ROK alliance faced a gap between its topline diplomatic rhetoric on Taiwan and its preparedness to navigate an actual conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan and the attendant risk of a simultaneous conflict on the Korean Peninsula. This project aimed to go beyond diplomatic rhetoric. Forty-two interviews were conducted from June 2024 to February 2025 in both Washington and Seoul. Most were in-person interviews with some conducted virtually or by written response via email. Through these interviews with U.S. and ROK current and former government officials, think tank experts, and academics—as well as open-source research—this project offers insight on the evolution and state of U.S.-ROK alliance discussions on a Taiwan conflict, key challenges obstructing such discussions, and critical variables or dynamics the alliance would have to navigate in the event of a conflict.
Topic:
Security, Alliance, Conflict, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

394. Untethered Sentiments: How Politics, Visibility, Perception, and Demographic Differences Shape American Views on Foreign Investment and Trade

Author:
Je Heon (James) Kim and Nils Wollesen Osterberg
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
The key takeaways from this study are as follows: 1. Impact of Perception on Foreign Investment Attitudes: The study finds that individual perceptions of FDI at the state level play a crucial role in shaping attitudes toward investment. Individuals who perceive high Korean FDI or states where Korean FDI has more visibility tend to have more favorable views toward foreign investment compared to those in states with low FDI or visibility of such investments. This finding highlights the importance of strategic communication and visibility in shaping public perceptions of foreign investment. Simply increasing investment is not enough; companies and governments must actively promote their contributions to local economic growth and job creation to gain broader public support. 2. Variation in Support Based on Country of Origin: While most Americans view foreign investments as beneficial, attitudes differ based on the investing country’s origin. Investments from South Korea, Japan, and Germany, for instance, are viewed more favorably than investments from China and Russia. 3. Political and Ideological Divides in Trade and Tariff Attitudes: The data reveals partisan differences regarding trade and tariffs. According to our data, a substantial majority of Republicans—at the time of this survey—favor tariffs, mirroring their party leader’s policies. Meanwhile, a minority of Democrats expressed similar support for the use of tariffs. 4. Dissonance on Trade and Tariffs: Despite broad support for U.S. participation in international trade, a significant portion of respondents also favor maintaining or increasing tariffs, suggesting support for the theoretical benefits of trade and protectionism. Evidence suggests that partisan or ideological drivers may be at work. 5. Demographic Influences on Trade and Investment Opinions: Factors such as gender, age, income, and education significantly impact trade attitudes. Younger individuals, higher-income earners, and those with higher education levels are more supportive of open trade, while lower-income and older individuals are more skeptical. 6. Reciprocity as a Key Factor in Investment Policy Preferences: Many Americans favor restrictions on inbound foreign investment unless similar restrictions are removed for U.S. investments abroad, highlighting the importance of the reciprocal approach to trade and investment policies. 7. Limited Influence of Job Creation on Investment Preferences: While respondents recognize that foreign investments create jobs, this factor alone does not significantly sway opinions on investment restrictions, as other economic and political considerations often take precedence. 8. Defense Industrial Cooperation and Export Control Concerns: A majority of respondents support maintaining or increasing restrictions on defense-related industrial cooperation, emphasizing national security concerns over economic benefits from defense-related investments and trade.
Topic:
Politics, Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

395. Rule of law in Mozambique

Author:
Margherita Bove and Patricia Justino
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the state and evolution of the rule of law in Mozambique, focusing on key dimensions such as voice and political participation, judicial independence and accessibility, corruption, access to basic services, personal security, and property rights. Drawing on Afrobarometer surveys, voting data, and conflict records, the paper offer insights into the perceptions and experiences of Mozambican citizens. The findings indicate a deterioration in institutional trust over the past two decades, alongside declining voter turnout in general elections and increasing election-related and political violence. Despite reforms aimed at improving judicial autonomy and accessibility, the legal system remains affected by inefficiencies and regional disparities. Citizens are often subject to bribery when accessing essential public services, and perception of corruption in key institutions remains high. Concerns about fairness and integrity in the land registration process can also weaken confidence in land security and property rights protection. The paper highlights the continued challenges Mozambique faces in consolidating the rule of law, exacerbated by legacies of conflict, political instability, and uneven socioeconomic development.
Topic:
Elections, Rule of Law, Institutions, Survey, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

396. Inequality and agricultural structural change: Evidence from macro and microdata, 1950–present

Author:
Matthew Fisher-Post
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since 1950, agricultural productivity has been increasing even as labourers leave agriculture. However, while average productivity of the sector has been converging, within-sector inequality has been increasing. Agricultural income inequality is still less than overall income inequality, but it measures significantly higher when we use higher-quality and more comprehensive survey data. This means not only to observe the entirety of household farm income, but also to measure the magnitude of capital income and corporate profits in the sector. Given the likely increase in agricultural inequality during the process of structural change, I show also the extent to which social protection programmes are both insufficient and poorly targeted for rural populations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Food Security, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

397. How reliable are national accounts estimates of agricultural output?

Author:
Sam Jones and Marcelo Mucocana
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Measurement errors in macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP have been widely lamented, particularly in low-income contexts. This study investigates the reliability of one component of national accounts, agricultural sector output. Focusing first on the case of Mozambique, we use a series of 12 harmonized national agricultural micro-surveys to construct estimates of gross annual output in the sector. Compared to corresponding national accounts values for the period 2002–20, the micro-survey estimates are about 50% lower. A decomposition exercise indicates this gap is primarily driven by differences in base year levels, offset by higher rates of inflation observed in survey-based producer prices. Triangulating these estimates using household budget surveys, market price, and FAO production data, we find consistent support for the agricultural micro-survey estimates, suggesting real rates of total GDP growth may have been overestimated by 1 percentage point over the period. A cross-country comparison of national accounts and FAO production data indicates positive differences between estimates of agricultural output from the two sources are not unique to Mozambique, but with larger discrepancies among lower-income countries. Systematic investment in reliable and timely agricultural statistics is essential to track progress in the sector.
Topic:
Agriculture, GDP, Macroeconomics, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

398. Social protection for Mozambique’s elderly: History, structure, and potential effectiveness

Author:
Sara Almeida, Hanna Berkel, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, and Telça Massingue
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria— programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. We estimate that in the best case with zero targeting errors, the PSSB-Elderly programme reaches two-thirds of its target group. However, significant regional disparities persist, including undercoverage in poorer regions. Additionally, we document substantial delays in payments since 2023, as well as various inaccuracies in the beneficiary registry. These findings underscore the importance of simple and robust designs for social protection in resource-constrained contexts. They also suggest that expanding programme coverage towards a quasi-universal subsidy in high-poverty locations merits serious consideration.
Topic:
Poverty, Public Policy, Pension, and Payment Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

399. Environmental Kuznets curve and green regulation

Author:
Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Loredana Pisano
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989– 2022). We find that (CO2) emissions respond positively to increasing income per capita, up to a turning point of approximately US$25,000. In a departure from the previous literature, we allow the relationship between economic development and emissions to depend on the stringency of environmental regulation. Our results indicate that environmental policies—and particularly market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emissions trading systems—make the EKC lower and flatter. These results are robust to several sensitivity checks, and to the use of regional (rather than global) data. Overall, our results have important policy implications, as they identify economic development as a pathway to environmental improvements. Moreover, we show that environmental policies are an essential means to achieving decoupling of emissions and economic output over the longer term.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Tax, Decoupling, and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

400. Fiscal policy and commodity price shocks in South Africa

Author:
Tumisang Loate and Vincent Dadam
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the effect of commodity price shocks in a commodity-exporting small open economy, and the role of fiscal policy in transmitting these shocks to the rest of the economy. Using South African data, we first estimate an empirical model using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. We then develop a New Keynesian small open economy with labour market hysteresis and commodity price shocks. We find that a commodity price shock typically has an expansionary effect as real GDP and employment increase, which translates into higher tax revenue. The results from our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model match the data. In addition, despite not modelling the tradable and non-tradable sectors explicitly, we find that there is an opportunity cost associated with taxing the commodity sector more than home production. This results in a higher trade deficit and government spending. Consequently, we also explore the role of countercyclical fiscal policy during a commodity boom.
Topic:
Economy, Fiscal Policy, Hysteresis, and Commodity Price Shock
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa