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61. Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Future Prospects

Author:
Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
International diplomacy efforts dealing with Iran's nuclear program continue to fill the daily news headlines. The efforts of P5+1, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have tried, in various formats, to encourage and enforce Iran to comply with the provisions of the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) to ensure that Iran's nuclear program is not used as a cover for the development of nuclear weapons. The challenge of discovering what has taken place as well as currently with Iran's nuclear ambitions is difficult not only because of Tehran's obstructionism, but also because the same nuclear technologies, particularly uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing, can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

62. Antiproliferation: Tackling Proliferation by Engaging the Private Sector

Author:
Ian J. Stewart
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper exploits the concept of antiproliferation to analyze the potential for mobilizing the private sector in countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Illicit trade from the international marketplace plays a direct role in sustaining the nuclear and missile programs of several countries, including Iran, in defiance of UN sanctions. These programs also profit indirectly from trade-enabling services, such as insurance, financing, and shipping. It is argued that almost all firms will work to avoid direct involvement with proliferation for a variety of reasons, but that firms often lack the systems, expertise, and information required to identify illicit proliferation-related trade.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions

63. Safe, Secure and Effective Nuclear Operations in the Nuclear Zero Era

Author:
Ronald G. Allen, Jr.
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Nuclear weapons have provided the foundation for international diplomacy and strategic stability for over six decades now. Their often misunderstood mission and strategic value rests in the ability to prevent, not win, major wars. This ability to deter is produced through understood capability and believable will, and ultimately rests on nuclear credibility. However, the central dilemma surrounding these weapons has always been that they provide America with both security and her only existential threat. For this reason many have tried, and thus far failed, to rid the world of nuclear weapons. The latest abolition movement, championed by former high-ranking government officials and prominent business leaders, gained momentum when President Obama declared his nuclear agenda during a 2009 speech in Prague. But his vision for a world free of nuclear weapons also came with a promise to ensure America's nuclear credibility well into the future. Often labeled a no-fail mission, producing deterrence is demanding, disciplined work with inherent risk. The addition of abolition rhetoric adds unnecessary risk in the form of mission relevance and the erosion of expertise and much needed resources for sustainment and modernization. Without significant change in the geopolitical landscape, nuclear weapons will remain a relevant portion of America's long-term national security strategy. Therefore, the burdens and responsibilities of maintaining an effective nuclear deterrent force are paramount to ensure credibility for America and her allies. Bottom line: nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence are still relevant today and for the foreseeable future. Therefore, to maintian international strategic stability we must embrace the necessity of nuclear deterrence, develop strategic policy that supports deterrence as an essential element and adequately resource the enterprise.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

64. Reordering Chinese Priorities on the Korea Peninsula

Author:
Scott Snyder, Marcus Noland, Bonnie S. Glaser, and Contributor: Stephan Haggard
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The accession to power of a new leader in North Korea has not increased the prospects for denuclearization. Hints that Kim Jong-un might experiment with agricultural and economic reforms are not accompanied by any suggestion that he is considering abandoning the country's nuclear weapons program. On the contrary, all signs point to North Korea's staunch determination to advance the nuclear program while undertaking efforts to compel the international community to recognize it as a nuclear weapons state. Given the growing urgency of the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons development, it is essential to consider new ways to persuade Pyongyang to freeze, reverse, and eventually eliminate its nuclear capabilities
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Israel and Korea

65. Keep Pentagon Cuts in Perspective: What the administration proposes is hardly dramatic

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Despite the hyperbole surrounding it, the proposal to roll back the DoD budget plan for 2013-2017 by $260 billion, asserted by Defense Secretary Panetta last fall, doesn't amount to much of a reduction from recent spending levels – about 4 percent in real terms. The roll back does appear more significant when measured against the administration's earlier spending plans for 2013-2017. But that's only because those earlier plans had aimed to continue the real growth in the Pentagon's base budget that had been underway since 1998.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

66. Capable Companies or Changing Markets? Explaining the Export Performance of Firms in the Defence Industry

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci and Arne Fevolden
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper carries out an empirical analysis of the factors explaining the export performance of firms in the defence sector. We focus on the case of Norway, and make use of two complementary methodologies: the first is based on quantitative firm-level data analysis for the whole population of defence companies, and the second is based on qualitative case study research on the three most important defence export products (weapon stations, ammunition, electronics). Our empirical results highlight the importance of four major success factors for exporting firms: (1) the participation in offset agreements; (2) the ability to focus on their set of core competencies; (3) their R activities and interactions with the public S system; (4) demand opportunities and, relatedly, user-producer interactions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Markets, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Norway

67. Defence Firms Facing Liberalization: Innovation and Export in an Agent-based Model of the Defence Industry

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci, Arne Fevolden, and Martin Blom
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper presents an agent-based simulation model of the defence industry. The model resembles some of the key characteristics of the European defence sector, and studies how firms in this market will respond to the challenges and opportunities provided by a higher degree of openness and liberalization in the future. The simulation analysis points out that European defence firms will progressively become more efficient, less dependent on public procurement and innovation policy support, and more prone to knowledge sharing and inter-firm collaborations. This firmlevel dynamics will in the long-run lead to an increase in the industry's export propensity and a less concentrated market.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Markets, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

68. Developments and Implications of Missile Defence

Author:
Gustav Lindstrom
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
On 9 December 2011, the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) hosted a seminar entitled "Developments and Implications of Missile Defence". The event was organized by the GCSP with the financial support of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA). About fifty participants attended the event, representing government, international organizations, the think tank community, and academia. The seminar had four principal aims. They were to: Examine recent developments in missile defence initiatives; Gauge the potential consequences of missile defence on regional and global security trends; Analyze the possible impact of missile defence developments on existing and future disarmament activities, including unintended consequences; and, Offer preliminary findings of key issues that policymakers should be aware of as missile defence evolves.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe

69. Preparing for a Constructive 2012 Conference on the Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone

Author:
W.P.S. Sidhu (ed), Bruce Jones (ed), and Colette Jaycox
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The consensus decision reached at the 2010 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) to convene a conference in 2012 on the establishment of a zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the Middle East was, perhaps, the most salient outcome of the quinquennium gathering.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

70. Should Greenland Mine its Uranium?

Author:
Cindy Vestergaard and France Bourgouin
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The world uranium industry has been undergoing a resurgence since 2002, and current supplies are not meeting demand. This increase in energy demand, coupled with concerns about energy security, is fuelling commercial interests in mining uranium. In 2010 the Greenland Government decided to relax its zero-tolerance uranium policy and allowed mining companies to explore prospects for potential uranium mining. With Greenland having the potential to become a uranium supplier, there are a range of domestic and international policy challenges that need to be addressed.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Natural Resources, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Europe and Greenland