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172. North Korean Shipping: A Potential for WMD Proliferation?
- Author:
- Hazel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The possibility that North Korean ships may be smuggling weapons of mass destruction is a matter of intense concern in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. The few reported incidents of North Korean ships involved in WMD transport are ambiguous; some ships have been engaged in legal weapons trade and some carried "dual-use" goods suitable for use in nonmilitary applications, like agriculture. Ownership of the North Korean merchant fleet is largely private and highly fragmented; most of its ships are small, old, and in poor repair, and are often subject to rigorous scrutiny in foreign ports. The inability of the government to effectively regulate the low-cost, substandard shipping industry creates the risk and incentives to smuggle goods, including WMD. Anti-proliferation efforts should abandon the divisive and unsuccessful Proliferation Security Initiative and concentrate on negotiating North Korea's entry into international arms control treaties, maintain stringent port controls, and negotiate technical assistance to reduce the vulnerability of the North Korean shipping industry.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- North Korea
173. An Israeli Strike on Iran
- Author:
- Steven Simon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Successive Israeli governments have held that a nuclear weapons capability in the region, other than Israel's own, would pose an intolerable threat to Israel's survival as a state and society. Iran's nuclear program—widely regarded as an effort to obtain a nuclear weapon, or put Tehran a “turn of a screw” away from it—has triggered serious concern in Israel. Within the coming year, the Israeli government could decide, much as it did twenty-eight years ago with respect to Iraq and two years ago with respect to Syria, to attack Iran's nuclear installations in order to delay its acquisition of a weapons capability.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, and Syria
174. The (Non) Impact of UN Sanctions on North Korea
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- This study finds that North Korea's nuclear test and the imposition of UN Security Council sanctions have had no perceptible effect on trade with its two largest partners, China and South Korea. Before North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, it was widely believed that such an event would have cataclysmic diplomatic ramifications. However, beginning with visual inspection of data and ending with time-series models, no evidence is found to support the notion that these events have had any effect on North Korea's trade with its two principal partners.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, International Security, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and North Korea
175. The Future of the CFE Treaty
- Author:
- Jeffrey D. McCausland
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The future of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, widely considered to be the cornerstone of European security, was thrown into stark question when the Russian Federation announced in December 2007 that it would suspend its participation in the treaty. The 1990 treaty, considered the most ambitious and far ranging conventional arms control treaty in history, established limits on the numbers of conventional military hardware deployed in Europe, required substantial reductions in conventional arsenals, and created an intrusive regime of inspections and verification. In many ways, the treaty changed the face of European security by establishing new, cooperative political-military relationships.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
176. Reducing and Regulating Tactical (Nonstrategic) Nuclear Weapons in Europe
- Author:
- Nikolai Sokov, Miles A. Pomper, and William Potter
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Control of tractical nuclear weapons (TNW) has remained an elusive goal since the early 1990s when the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia adopted a set of unilateral parallel political obligations to reduce and store at central locations the larger part of their TNW forces. Efforts by the international community to nudge the two countries to give these unilateral statements a legally binding, verifiable character did not succeed, and one can point to little headway with respect TNW arms control in the intervening 18years.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Soviet Union
177. Four Emerging Issues in Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation: Opportunities for German Leadership
- Author:
- Nikolai Sokov, Dennis M. Gormley, Miles A. Pomper, Patricia M. Lewis, Lawrence Scheinman, Stephen Schwartz, and Leonard S. Spector
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- In late April 2009, the Policy Planning Staff of the Foreign Ministry of the Federal Republic of Germany requested that the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) undertake studies on four emerging issues in the fields of arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation, to be completed by June 15, 2009. The four issues were: The need to address the interrelationship between nuclear and conventional arms reduction, if the United States wants to entice others to go along the path to Global Zero. The world after drastic nuclear arms reductions, including the fear of U.S. conventional superiority/global strike capabilities; The need (and promising areas) to make (nuclear) arms control and disarmament a strong component of NATO's new strategic concept; Missile Defense, also covering a possible threat from others than Iran and the need to bring missile defense into the NATO-Russia Council; and Substrategic nuclear weapons, with a description of a way to achieve mutual transparency, reduction, and elimination in Europe.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Germany
178. Engaging China and Russia on Nuclear Disarmament
- Author:
- Cristina Hansell (ed) and William C. Potter (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Today two key nuclear powers, China and Russia, stand at the crossroads of nuclear policy: both Beijing and Moscow are reassessing their nuclear policies and postures. The decisions they make will affect their negotiating positions for years to come; therefore, now is the time to engage both countries in discussions about deep nuclear reductions that could ultimately lead to the elimination of their arsenals. Such actions will contribute to reaching “nuclear zero”—the complete elimination of all nuclear weapons—an idea that was the focus of two recent opinion articles coauthored by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, who stressed the necessity of “turning the goal of a world without nuclear weapons into a practical enterprise among nations.”
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia and China
179. Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Turkey
- Author:
- Hakki Uygur
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The Iranian nuclear issue has serious implications for regional and international security and as such requires a comprehensive analysis of the Iranian domestic power structure, foreign policy decision making process and nuclear diplomacy. Iran has a complex internal decision making process and the management of nuclear issue makes the situation more complicated. This policy brief argues that the Iranian nuclear issue is as much a regional and international issue as it is part of the domestic power struggle in Iran. It also argues that Turkey should follow the nuclear issue closely and play a constructive role in opposing the proliferation of WMD including nuclear weapons in the Middle East while maintaining good relations with Iran.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, and Middle East
180. The US-Russia Strategic Framework Declaration
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- President Bush and President Putin issued on April 6, 2008, in Sochi [Russia], a Declaration setting forth a framework for strategic cooperation between the United States and Russia. The Declaration outlines key elements of ongoing and new strategic initiatives between the two countries, including steps to promote security in the face of new and emerging threats; prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction; combat global terrorism; and advance economic cooperation. The Strategic Framework Declaration also acknowledges differences between the two countries, while agreeing to discuss these differences in a forthright manner without allowing these differences to prevent cooperation in other important areas.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Sochi