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131. Nuclear Politics in Iran

Author:
Judith S. Yaphe
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This collection of analyses on the unintended consequences of Iran's nuclear policy for its domestic and international relations is the first in a series of papers that will examine the impact of critical issues and developments on key countries in the Greater Middle East and on U.S. security interests. Succeeding papers will identify similar emerging issues in Turkey, Iraq, Yemen, and the Persian Gulf region. For the most part, the papers will represent the independent research and opinions of academic scholars and regional experts prepared for and presented at the National Defense University.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, and Yemen

132. Nuclear Weapon-Free Zones as a New Deterrent?

Author:
Janene Sawers
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Deterrence is an outdated approach to the threat of nuclear weapons and does not meet the security needs of the post-Cold War era. Nuclear weapon-free states can establish a new regional security framework through the strengthening of existing and creation of new Nuclear Weapon-Free Zones (NWFZs). These zones operate under the assumption that more nuclear weapons make the world inherently less safe and demonstrate that countries do not need nuclear weapons to deter attack.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security

133. A Growing Terrorist Threat? Assessing "Homegrown" Extremism in the United States

Author:
Rick "Ozzie" Nelson and Ben Bodurian
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Five events during the fall of 2009 thrust concerns over “homegrown” terrorism—or extremist violence perpetrated by U.S. legal residents and citizens —into public view: September 19: Najibullah Zazi, an Afghan citizen and U.S. legal resident, was arrested on charges of conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction. Zazi later admitted to traveling to Pakistan to receive explosives and weapons training and to planning an attack in the United States. October 27: Federal authorities charged U.S. citizen David Coleman Headley with planning to attack a Danish newspaper. In December, revelations surfaced that Headley may have conspired with operatives of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani terrorist group, in the 2008 Mumbai attacks. November 5: Major Nidal Malik Hasan, U.S. Army, allegedly killed 13 and wounded 30 at Fort Hood Army Base, outside Killeen, Texas. Early reports revealed that Hasan had previously communicated with a radical Yemeni cleric connected to al Qaeda. November 23: Federal officials unsealed indictments against eight people charged in connection with the alleged recruitment of approximately two dozen Somali Americans to fight with an insurgent group in Somalia. December 9: Five young Northern Virginia men were arrested in Sargodha, Pakistan. U.S. and Pakistani authorities claim that the group traveled there to fight alongside Taliban militants in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, America, Somalia, and Virginia

134. Controlling the Further Spread of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Henry Sokolski
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The replacement for the Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty (START), which presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev signed in April 2010, marks the first legally binding arms control agreement to be reached in nearly twenty years. At the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference in May 2010, where the topic of nu clear disarmament will be discussed, the elimination of nuclear weapons will be viewed as a practical possibility. While this prospect can be easily dismissed as an optimistic or flee ting trend, it should instead be harnessed as a means to bolster international security, or at least not to make matter s worse. This requires both sound insights into what is and is not possible, and in Washington, sensitivity to an increasing number of contentious political views regarding nuclear controls.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

135. Preparing For A Second Nuclear Age

Author:
Ian Johnstone, Christine Wing, Bruce Jones, Elsina Wainwright, and Fiona Simpson
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
At the time of finalizing this report, the US and Russia have signed an agreement on a replacement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), just days before the opening of a high-level Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C. After years of divisiveness and lack of progress, it is tempting to conclude that the nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament regime is on the upswing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia and Washington

136. Diminutive hopes on Nuclear Disarmament

Author:
A. Vinod Kumar
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of Foreign Policy Studies, University of Calcutta
Abstract:
The 65th anniversary of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings has just gone by. This was one passionate moment for the comity of nations to conscientiously introspect why all the movements and initiatives on disarmament in the past six decades have not borne fruition. This was also an opportunity to formally acknowledge the failure of the recent momentum on nuclear disarmament, initiated by the statesmen quadrate – Henry Kissinger, William Perry, Sam Nunn and George Schultz. Their two-piece exhortation in the Wall Street Journal had triggered a global wave of debates, initiatives and commissions to explore pragmatic paths towards Global Zero, all of which faded out with the disappointing outcome of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference (RevCon) in May.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

137. Dealing with Iran: How can the EU achieve its strategic objectives?

Author:
Shirin Pakfar
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Europe and Iran have had important political, cultural and commercial relations that date back several centuries, but these relations have been steadily strained since 2002 when the uncertainty with regard to Iran's nuclear program became an issue of international concern. In demonstrating its role as an important foreign-policy actor capable of taking the lead in resolving global crises, through the leadership of France, Germany and the United Kingdom (the EU3) the EU has spearheaded efforts to obtain a solution to the deadlock between Tehran and the international community over Iran's nuclear program. This approach has not been fully successful in achieving its goal and has contributed to straining EU-Iran relations. The EU has yet to develop a unified, independent and long-term strategy vis-à-vis Iran that would enable it to maintain a constructive relationship with Tehran and achieve its strategic objectives without compromising its core values. The four strategies available to the EU are: a) use of force/military action; b) containment and deterrence; c) engagement; and d) non-entanglement. While the EU's short–term tactics represent a mixture of engagement and containment, this paper argues that, in the case of Iran, the two approaches cancel each other out. To increase its leverage on Iran on the nuclear issue and beyond, the EU must adopt a realpolitik strategy of détente, building confidence with the regime in Tehran and obtaining policy progress through non-controversial mutual areas of interest. The EU High Representative should also take a more active role in leading the EU's efforts.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe and Iran

138. The Next Stage of Proliferation

Author:
Ilan Berman
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
With the exception of a handful of capitals friendly to Tehran, and of course the Iranian regime itself, few now dispute the notion that the Islamic Republic of Iran is involved in a nuclear weapons program—and one that will, unfortunately, come to fruition in the next few years. News of Iran's seemingly-unstoppable drive for nuclear status is no real surprise, of course; despite four UN Security Council Resolutions condemning Iran and imposing punitive economic sanctions, Tehran continues to enrich uranium for those weapons virtually unhindered.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Political Violence, Islam, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

139. A new farewell to arms: Viewing disarmament in a new security environment

Author:
Jean Pascal Zanders
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
In 1909 Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey, Viscount Grey of Fallodon, prophesied the outbreak of World War I when he declared that the naval arms race between Britain and Germany had become the most important single factor increasing tensions and the risk of war in Europe. The judgement captures the kernel of disarmament: certain types of weaponry are inherently so destabilising to international peace and security that they should preferably be removed from the military arsenals. Disarmament became a major objective of the League of Nations in the 1920s and 1930s. Under the Charter of the United Nations it is a responsibility of the General Assembly (Article 11) and the Security Council (Article 26). Today, as in the past, disarmament is one of the policy options available to governments to enhance national security. Barring a decision to unilaterally renounce a particular weapon category or coercive destruction of military equipment following defeat in war, it forms an integral part of cooperative security that aims for stability, predictability and transparency in international relations based on equal rights and obligations for all parties concerned.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and United Nations

140. North Korea: The Risks of War in the Yellow Sea

Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Yellow Sea off the Korean peninsula has become a potential flashpoint for a wider conflict. An escalating series of confrontations by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has seen the sinking of a Republic of Korea (ROK) naval vessel and the shelling of civilian settlements on an island near the boundary. The disputed nature of this maritime boundary, known as the Northern Limit Line (NLL), as well as the volatility of DPRK politics has created a serious risk that any further provocation might turn into a wider conflict. While international attention is once again focused on the North's nuclear program, there is an urgent need to implement measures that could reduce the possibility of a clash in the Yellow Sea becoming something worse.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
South Korea, North Korea, and Island