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801. CÔTE D'IVOIRE: "The War Is Not Yet Over"

Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
"The war is not yet over", an ICG mission to Côte d'Ivoire repeatedly heard in November 2003. There are ominous signs that the Côte d'Ivoire peace process initiated in January 2003 has broken down. If the country goes back to war, it could well take all West Africa with it, endangering even recent progress in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The UN Security Council needs to take a leading role in the peace process, initially by upgrading its current presence to a full peacekeeping mission. This could include subsuming some 1,400 West African troops under the umbrella of an expanded operation. The UN should also step up cooperation between its ongoing peace operation in Liberia and its Ivorian peace mission, MINUCI.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, Liberia, and Sierra Leone

802. Tribunal Penal International Pour Le Rwanda: Pragmatisme De Rigueur

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Il y a un an, le Tribunal pénal international pour le Rwanda (TPIR) traversait une période de grande tension. En même temps que s'imposaient à lui des échéances claires quant à la fin de son mandat, le TPIR faisait face à trois défis essentiels: fixer un programme réaliste des poursuites lui permettant d'achever ses travaux d'ici 2008, date fixée pour l'achèvement des procès en première instance, établir un calendrier judiciaire reflétant ses priorités et la nécessité d'améliorer sa productivité, résister à la pression d'un gouvernement rwandais déterminé à empêcher toute poursuite contre des membres de son armée. Sur ces trois fronts, l'année qui vient de s'écouler aura marqué l'entrée du TPIR dans une phase de pragmatisme.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Law, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

803. Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a path toward war - which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 - or solidify their peace agreement. Ethiopia must decide whether to allow demarcation of the border to begin in October 2003 even though the international Boundary Commission set up under the Algiers agreement that ended the fighting has ruled that the town of Badme - the original flashpoint of the war - is on the Eritrean side. The outcome will have profound implications for both countries and the entire Horn of Africa, as well as for international law and the sanctity of binding peace agreements and arbitration processes. The international community, particularly the U.S., the African Union (AU), and the European Union (EU), all of which played major roles in brokering the Algiers agreement, need to engage urgently to help Ethiopia move the demarcation forward and to assist both parties to devise a package of measures that can reduce the humanitarian costs of border adjustments and otherwise make implementation of the demarcation more politically palatable.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, North Africa, and Ethiopia

804. Sudan Endgame

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Sudan peace process is in its endgame. One year ago, the parties signed the Machakos Protocol, a provisional "grand bargain" that effectively traded a southern self-determination referendum for Sharia in the North. It is time for a second "grand bargain" on the remaining issues such as the status of the national capital, the presidency and the security arrangements to close the deal. This requires major tradeoffs - or new solutions - to meet the bottom lines of the parties and protect the original Protocol as well as incentives for implementation. Commitments on the U.S.-Sudan bilateral relationship and assurances that the U.S. will remain closely involved in the post-agreement process are the glue without which a deal is unlikely to stick. With them, peace has a chance.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

805. Decision Time in Zimbabwe

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Change is in the air in Zimbabwe. Its citizens no longer talk about whether it will come, but rather when. All acknowledge, however, that the road will be dangerous, possibly violent. South Africa is the single country with ability to help its neighbour through the roughest patches if it is willing to engage with sufficient determination to persuade the government of President Robert Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party to sit down with their challenger, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and then facilitate and mediate negotiations for a transitional government and new elections. A range of other international players need to play supporting roles, including the EU, the Southern Africa Development Commission (SADC), the African Union (AU), and the Commonwealth, but most directly and prominently the U.S. The visit of President Bush to South Africa on 8 July is a unique opportunity to chart action that could lead to a negotiated solution and an end to the crisis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

806. Somaliland: Democratisation and Its Discontents

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Recent developments have made the choice faced by the international community considerably clearer: develop pragmatic responses to Somaliland's demand for self-determination or continue to insist upon the increasingly abstract notion of the unity and territorial integrity of the Somali Republic - a course of action almost certain to open a new chapter in the Somali civil war.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Democratization, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
North Africa and Somalia

807. Sudan's Other Wars

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The two-party framework in which Sudan's peace talks are being held is not adequately addressing all the country's current armed conflicts: especially the long-running rebellions in the “Three Areas” (Abyei, the Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile ) in the North, and the more recent outbreak of armed conflict in Darfur in western Sudan. The discontents in these regions have thus far largely been viewed as of secondary importance to those of the South, but they must be taken into account if a sustainable national peace agreement is to be reached. There is a real potential for those who feel ignored by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) peace process to undermine any deal that is between only the Khartoum government and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA). It is therefore incumbent upon the IGAD mediation team and the international observer countries to ensure that the grievances driving conflict in these areas are fully dealt with in any comprehensive peace deal.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

808. Angola's Choice: Reform or Regress

Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
One year after more than four decades of internationally fuelled civil conflict came to an end, Angola is faced with a stark choice. If the government undertakes and sustains meaningful political and economic reforms, peace and prosperity would be assured. If it delays and obfuscates on fundamental issues of transparency, diversification and pluralism, the country will likely be condemned to further decades of poor governance and localised violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa

809. Negotiating a Blueprint for Peace in Somalia

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The peace process in Somalia is at a critical point. Talks that began with great promise are in danger of collapsing unless the mediators, the international community and the Somali factions themselves provide stronger leadership. The Somali public's flagging interest and support for the process needs to be revived, and improvements are required in the negotiating process or the parties will be unable to tackle the many difficult outstanding issues. Unfortunately, the international community has remained reluctant to throw its full weight behind the peace talks, to take a tough line with those who are undermining it or generally to express a unified position on preferred outcomes.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
North Africa and Somalia

810. Zimbabwe: Danger and Opportunity

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The economic meltdown, government-created food crisis, and deepening state-sponsored violence that have plagued Zimbabwe in the year since President Robert Mugabe's ruling party rigged the presidential election continue to point in one ominous direction: potential state collapse.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe