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772. Measuring the Economic Impact of an EU–GCC Free Trade Agreement
- Author:
- David Kernohan and Dean A. DeRosa
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Economic growth rates in the Gulf region have languished in recent years and need to be raised to accommodate the rapidly growing populations and social aspirations of the region. Using a simple model of world trade, this report investigates the economic impacts of the new customs union of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the GCC and European Union. The quantitative results suggest that the new customs union and proposed EU-GCC free trade agreement both appreciably expand trade and improve economic welfare in the GCC countries, with little significant economic impact on the EU. As expected, the FTA results in larger GCC economic gains than the customs union because it affords GCC consumers greater opportunity to enjoy imports at internationally competitive prices. Although welfare gains under the proposed FTA closely approximate those under open regionalism (concerted trade liberalisation on a most favoured nation basis), reducing the 5% GCC common external tariff to about 3% as part of the FTA negotiations would not only ensure near-maximum trade performance and welfare gains but also add further to the attractiveness of the GCC countries as a location for foreign direct investment.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Population
- Political Geography:
- Europe
773. Why Is There a Productivity Problem in the EU?
- Author:
- Francesco Daveri
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Magazines and newspapers often refer to or even take for granted the economic decline of the EU, particularly when contrasting the EU data with US data. The first part of this paper poses the question of whether IT – as often alleged – is really the only cause for the EU's productivity slowdown. The conclusion is that it is not. The non-IT part of the economy has not only contributed to the slowdown but appears to have crucially contributed to the EU-US growth gap as well. There is thus little reason for the EU to target IT-diffusion as an intermediate goal, as implied by the Lisbon strategy. The second part of the paper, after showing that the growth slowdown comes from the reduction of non-IT capital deepening and the lack of acceleration in total factor productivity growth, argues that the slowdown of capital deepening will continue. The scarce resources available for enhancing growth should concentrate on providing incentives to R and innovation at large, rather than financing traditional infrastructures. This is at odds with the goals pursued by the EU within the framework of the European Growth Initiative.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe
774. Economic Policy Coordination in EMU: What Role for the SGP?
- Author:
- Jørgen Mortensen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The present paper discusses the implications of the recent institutional crisis in the EU provoked by the failure of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) to impose the sanction on Germany and France provided for in the Stability and Growth Pact, along with Article 104 and the associated protocol of the Maastricht Treaty. The paper situates the debate concerning the application of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in a broader evolution of the struggle between two schools of thought concerning macroeconomic policy–making in the European Union: the school calling for a strengthening of competences at the EU level (federal economic government) and the school arguing for preserving national competences for budgetary policy even in the face of the transfer of competence for monetary policy to the European Central Bank (ECB). The paper argues that the SGP represents an acceptable comprise between the two views of the schools in so far as it establishes rules to be respected without actually transferring competence to the Council in the field of budgetary policy. Consequently, the SGP has not and does not add to the 'democratic deficit' within the EU institutional framework. The paper argues, nevertheless, that the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) puts too strong an emphasis on the government budget deficit and suggests that emphasis on the sustainable level of public debt would ensure a stronger basis for assessing whether a given budget deficit may be considered excessive or not.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, and Germany
775. Nuclear Deterrence, Preventive War, and Counterproliferation
- Author:
- Jeffrey Record
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- During the Cold War, the principal function of nuclear weapons was to deter nuclear attack. Nuclear deterrence was not considered a tool of nonproliferation. The primary mechanisms for halting the proliferation of nuclear weapons were the nonproliferation regime established by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 and the U.S. extension of nuclear deterrence to states that might otherwise have sought security through the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States
776. European Union Defense Policy: An American Perspective
- Author:
- Leslie S. Lebl
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- For almost 50 years, proposals by the European Union to develop a common foreign and security policy for all member states failed. Since the late 1990s, however, the situation has changed. Despite, or perhaps because of, member states' disagreements over Iraq, the EU probably will continue to develop common foreign and security policies, and the European Commission may begin to play a role in developing new European military capabilities.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, Europe, and Middle East
777. Beyond Kyoto: Real Solutions to Greenhouse Emissions from Developing Countries
- Author:
- Roger Bate and David Montgomery
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Whether the Kyoto Protocol is ever ratified is fast becoming irrelevant. Many of the European nations that ratified the convention are failing to reach their targets, while developing countries, not required to comply with Kyoto, claim they will never participate in targets and timetables, as it would retard their economic growth. Given that developing countries are likely to emit well over half of future greenhouse gases (GHGs), a more promising strategy would be to devise an approach that limits emissions while helping development.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, and Third World
- Political Geography:
- Europe
778. Freedom, Prosperity, and Security
- Author:
- J. Brian Atwood, Robert S. Browne, and Princeton N. Lyman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The United States will host the G8 Summit at Sea Island, Georgia, in June 2004. Many urgent and critical international issues need to be discussed at the summit, especially developments in the Middle East and in the worldwide war on terrorism. It will be important, however, that the summit also maintain the momentum of the past three years in the G8-Africa partnership. This will reinforce the work of African leaders who are championing democracy, human rights, and good governance. Africa, moreover, figures prominently in the three global issues the United States has selected for the summit: freedom, security, and prosperity.
- Topic:
- Security and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Middle East, Georgia, and Island
779. Moving Toward Dialogue: Challenges in Canada - U.S. Energy Trade
- Author:
- Paul Ziff and Daniel Yergin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Moving Toward Dialogue: Challenges in Canada-U.S. Energy Trade is the second publication in our new One Issue,Two Voices series. Using expertise from both sides of the Canada–U.S. border, this series is our contribution to dialogue on policy issues relevant to the bilateral relationship. We look at energy in this paper, specifically the issue of infrastructure and cooperation in the delivery of energy resources across the 49th parallel. Our authors, Daniel Yergin and Michael Zenker of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cambridge and Washington) and Paul Ziff of Ziff Energy Group (Calgary) are wellknown experts on energy issues who have agreed to share their opinions on this important aspect of the energy trade.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- North America
780. Decision Time: Water Diversion Policy in the Great Lakes Basin
- Author:
- Ralph Pentland and Jim Olson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Decision Time:Water Diversion Policy in the Great Lakes is the first publication in our One Issue,Two Voices series. Using expertise from both sides of the Canada–U.S. border, this series is our contribution to dialogue on policy issues relevant to the bilateral relationship. In this first paper, the issue is “water,” specifically the developing policy on diversions from the Great Lakes. Our two authors are leading experts on the Great Lakes, who have willingly entered the debate to share their informed opinions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- North America