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201. The Eastern Question: Russia, the West and Europe’s Grey Zone

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
Russia under Vladimir Putin has become a revisionist power seeking to undo the post-Cold War settlement, control its neighborhood, and disrupt Western influence. By annexing the eastern Ukrainian region of Crimea and waging war in other parts of the country, the Kremlin seeks not only to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty but the European security order. The comfortable verities of the ''post-Cold War era'' are a paradigm lost. The Soviet succession continues to rumble, and a new era has begun - more fluid, more turbulent, more open-ended.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Grand Strategy, Conflict, and Putin
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and North America

202. A Smarter Dimension of a New Universal Climate Agreement?

Author:
Katarína Hazuchová
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
As the world approaches the middle of this century, the narratives of natural resources’ management are being newly defined, aiming to converge into new, “smarter” means of prosperity, which recognizes and integrates climate change related risks. The impacts of climate change are easily seen by the naked eye, as the ice sheets are melting ever faster, acidification of the oceans is increasing, sea level rises and extreme weather events brings casualties and economic loss around the globe. However, the means of how countries and markets have been willing or reluctant to cooperate on climate change in the context of making changes to sovereign resource management is significant. The transition to low-carbon, cleaner economies is driven by two rationales: the first objective is not to increase the world temperature by more than 2 ⁰C by the end of the century, upgrading to 1,5 ⁰C; and the second is to plan how to do so smoothly through world-wide de-carbonization. The uncertainties and fears surrounding “transformation” determine, to a certain extent, the voluntary nature of some new aspects of the current climate change regime.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Global Focus

203. Policy Recommendations for Israel-Turkey Reconciliation

Author:
GPoT Center and Mitvim
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Engaged in a series of policy dialogues since 2012, Mitvim – the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and the Global Political Trends (GPoT) Center believe that after the signing of the Israel-Turkey agreement and the restoration of full diplomatic relations, both countries should consider the following policy recommendations in order to ensure successful reconciliation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Palestine, and Israel

204. Time to Seal the Israel-Turkey Deal

Author:
Mensur Akgün, Muhammed Ammash, Nimrod Goren, Gabriel Mitchell, and Sylvia Tiryaki
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Turkey and Israel face a unique opportunity: to reconcile after five years of stagnant bilateral relations. We, leaders of Israeli and Turkish think tanks that have been working together since 2012 to support the mending of Israel-Turkey relations, welcome this development and call on the leaders of both countries to seize this opportunity. In mid-December, officials from both countries met in Switzerland in order to finalize principles for an eventual agreement to normalize ties. Reports confirm that an outline and framework for the reconciliation agreement has indeed been reached, although some important issues – such as the blockade on the Gaza Strip – are still unresolved. Israel and Turkey came close to sealing a reconciliation deal on several occasions since the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, most recently in the spring of 2014. However, while diplomats managed to find formulas that would overcome the differences between the countries, political leadership in Ankara and Jerusalem was hesitant to put the agreement into practice. This time around, there seems to be a convergence of economic and geostrategic interests, as well as political will on both sides.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

205. Exercising or Evading International Public Authority? The Many Faces of Environmental Post-Treaty Rules

Author:
Tim Staal
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
Post-treaty instruments (PTIs) are informal instruments adopted by consensus of the treaty parties as follow-up decision to a particular provision in a treaty. PTIs are potentially significant instruments for advancing environmental global governance, as the treaty parties may use them to transform indeterminate treaty provisions into more specific environmental rules and decisions. While a number of PTIs are rightly characterized as exercises of authority, this article seeks to demonstrate how certain environmental PTIs with rule-setting character (‘PTRs’) amount to evasions of authority by reducing international authority over States’ environmental policies, or alleviate rather than tighten the treaty parties’ obligations, through their content or legal status. First, some PTRs avoid authoritative language, requiring little or no concrete action by the treaty parties. Some treaty-based assignments to adopt PTRs are never even acted upon. Other PTRs simply water down the obligations of the treaty parties compared to the underlying treaty provisions. Second, PTRs possess an ambiguous legal status both in legal doctrine and in the practice of domestic and EU courts. The article further argues that consensual decision-making may well be at the root of this ambivalent practice. As a broader contribution to the debate about International Public Authority (IPA), the proposition is advanced that we need to scrutinize more carefully what kind and degree of authority an instrument exercises exactly – or not. Evasions of authority and alleviations of obligations – which can be conceived as a special type of exercising authority through inaction – have important implications for what future legal frameworks of international public law must deliver in terms of effective and legitimate procedural design.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Governance, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

206. The Evolution of Arms Control Instruments and the Potential of the Arms Trade Treaty

Author:
Tom Coppen
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
Although the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) has the potential to create an effective international legal framework for controlling the international arms trade, much depends on the subsequent development of its legal framework. This article therefore analyzes how the ATT, as a multilateral arms control treaty, can develop its own legal framework in accordance with international law and what role the organs established by it can play in that process. It will be shown that in its current form the ATT has significant shortcomings that may prevent it from achieving this goal, but there certainly is room for the lawful development of its norms, which will depend on amassing political will and the establishment of practice.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Law, Treaties and Agreements, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

207. Iran’s Resurgence as Power after International Sanctions Relief / El resurgimiento de Irán como potencia tras el levantamiento de las sanciones internacionales

Author:
José Ignacio Castro
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 Group become a reality at the beginning of 2016, with the Iranian engagement on declaration and reduction of her nuclear capabilities, for a temporary period. Parallel to the agreement accomplishment, Iran has increased her power towards her geopolitical enlargement area in the Mesopotamia and Levant region. Iran´s resurgence has caused a conventional weapons´ proliferation, where ballistic missiles are the main stress´s source. At international level, Iran has achieved better business opportunities, although her economic evolution is still slow, mainly due internal power´s dynamics. At global order level, the agreement has brought main actors power´s redesign in Middle East and other global areas. Inside Iran, the agreement has reinforced institutional authority and at the same time it is opening up the way for hope and for a better future for the Iranian people.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

208. The Ohrid Framework Agreement: A Strategic Tool for Electoral Party Competition in Macedonia

Author:
Josipa Rizankoska and Jasmina Trajkoska
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The myth that the Ohrid Framework Agreement (OFA) can be the ‘cure’ for fragile heterogeneous societies has been debunked shortly before its 10th anniversary. The general research question of this article is how political parties in Macedonia assess the role of the OFA in building functioning multiethnic society, while the specific puzzle is what accounts for the radicalism of the nationalistic rhetoric of the political parties in Macedonia? We argue that the assessment of the success of the OFA implementation would depend on the parties’ position of power and the type of ethnic community (the majority, majority-minority or non-majority minority). We find the bad economic situation and the exclusion from the government to be the most perceived radicalizers of nationalistic party rhetoric in Macedonia. This case study uses qualitative analyses of thirty semi-structured interviews with high representatives of the 26 most important political parties in Macedonia.
Topic:
Nationalism, Treaties and Agreements, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Macedonia

209. South Sudan Keeping Faith with the IGAD Peace Process

Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For more than eighteen months, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the regional body mediating peace negotiations to end South Sudan’s civil war, has struggled to secure a deal in the face of deep regional divisions and the parties’ truculence. To overcome these challenges, it announced a revised, expanded mediation – “IGAD-PLUS” – including the African Union (AU), UN, China, U.S., UK, European Union (EU), Norway and the IGAD Partners Forum (IPF). The initiative is designed to present a united international front behind IGAD to the warring sides but so far it has failed to gain necessary backing from the wider international community, much of which is disillusioned with both IGAD and the South Sudanese. Rather than distance itself from IGAD, the international community needs to support a realistic, regionally-centred strategy to end the war, underpinned by coordinated threats and inducements. Supporting IGAD-PLUS’ efforts to get the parties’ agreement on a final peace deal in the coming weeks is the best – if imperfect – chance to end the conflict and prevent further regionalisation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

210. An Unnoticed Crisis: The End of History for Nuclear Arms Control?

Author:
Alexei Arbatov
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Beginning with the signing of the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1963, an international arms control regime has limited existing nuclear arsenals and prevented further proliferation of nuclear weapons. But that entire system could soon unravel. Nearly all negotiations on nuclear arms reduction and nonproliferation have come to a stop, while existing treaty structures are eroding due to political and military-technological developments and may collapse in the near future. These strategic and technical problems can be resolved if politicians are willing to work them out, and if experts approach them creatively.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction