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131. National Political Dialogue Handbook

Author:
Public International Law Policy Group
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
Over the past three decades, states emerging from internal conflict have increasingly turned to national political dialogues (NPDs) to achieve durable peace and comprehensive political settlements. NPDs are inclusive and participatory mechanisms for political and social stakeholders to negotiate political transitions. NPDs take various forms because every state, conflict, and peace process involves a unique set of circumstances. NPDs may differ in their mandate, size, level of inclusiveness, and role(s) within a state’s broader political transition. Numerous states around the world have conducted NPDs in various forms, including: Guatemala, East Timor, Nepal, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Mali, Kenya, Rwanda, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Yemen. Once parties to a conflict have made a commitment to peace, they often agree to resolve the outstanding issues of the political transition through a participatory dialogue process. The design and preparation of a NPD is the crucial first step to carrying out this process. Though the design of a state’s dialogue will differ according to the particular context of a particular state, the most successful dialogues share several key features and objectives, including a strong mandate with well-defined goals, inclusive and participatory processes that are jointly- owned by all major stakeholders, and public buy-in and acceptance of the dialogue process. The most effective way to ensure that a NPD fulfills these characteristics of a successful dialogue is through careful preparation and design. This Handbook explores the various aspects of planning for and carrying out a successful national political dialogue as part of a broader peace process and political settlement effort. Planning a NPD involves focusing on key elements and considerations for during the preparatory stages of a NPD, such as establishing dialogue guarantees, forming a preparatory committee, setting an agenda for discussions, selecting participants, establishing a governance structure, and engaging in public outreach. Conducting a NPD involves key elements of carrying out the dialogue discussions, including the structure of the talks and division of work, seeking support from international actors, managing dialogue logistics, administering internal governance structures, encouraging internal decision- making and consensus building, and finalizing outcomes and recommendations. The Handbook addresses each of these elements to help practitioners design and carry out a dialogue that can lead to the implementation of meaningful outcomes.
Topic:
Governance, Domestic Politics, Peace, and Transition
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Kenya, Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South America, Nepal, Rwanda, Guatemala, Mali, Niger, and East Timor

132. To Shoot or not to Shoot? Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern Militaries Respond Differently

Author:
James M Dorsey and Teresita Cruz-del Rosario
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
An analysis of the Middle Eastern and North African militaries has produced a laundry list of literature, much of which was either valid for a specific post-World War II period or highlighted one of more aspects of military interest in the status quo or attitudes towards political change. Leaving aside the geopolitical differences between Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, a comparison of the transition in both regions brings into focus the building blocks that are needed for an armed force to embrace change. Southeast Asian nations succeeded whereas the countries in Middle East and North Africa, with the exception of Tunisia, have failed for several reasons.
Topic:
Politics, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Asia, North Africa, and Southeast Asia

133. MDC-T defeat in Zimbabwe: Was it only due to Intimidation?

Author:
Stephen Ndoma
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In the relatively peaceful harmonized elections of July 2013, Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe overwhelmingly defeated challenger Morgan Tsvangirai, 61% to 34%. Mugabe’s party, the Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), also won 158 of the country’s 210 parliamentary seats, giving it more than a two-thirds majority in the lower House of Assembly, as well as a large majority of local council seats. Some parts of Zimbabwean society and the international community were shocked by the outcome, given the strong performance of Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change–Tsvangirai (MDC-T) in previous elections. In fact, Tsvangirai had outpolled Mugabe in the first round of the March 2008 presidential elections before withdrawing from a runoff that he described as a “violent sham” that endangered his supporters. The inconclusive 2008 elections led to the power-sharing Government of National Unity (GNU), established in February 2009, under which Mugabe retained the presidency while Tsvangirai became prime minister. The GNU was expected to steer Zimbabwe through its transition and eventually be terminated after the holding of free, fair, and credible elections. Following voters’ overwhelming endorsement of a new Constitution in March 2013, the results of the July 2013 elections left many observers shaking their heads in disbelief. The MDC-T charged electoral chicanery and described the outcome as “heavily manipulated” and “illegitimate.” One of the reasons for the ZANU-PF victory most frequently cited by the MDC-T and some civil society organisations is that the use of political intimidation and violence in election campaigns has worked against the MDC-T’s march toward State House. What accounts for the resurgence of the ZANU-PF and the dismal performance of the MDC-T? Is fear of political violence the only salient factor in the MDC-T’s loss in the watershed elections? Using data from Afrobarometer surveys in Zimbabwe, this paper argues that fear of political violence, though real, is not the most important explanatory variable accounting for the opposition’s defeat. Instead, most voters were casting their ballots on the basis of their changing evaluations of the principals, Tsvangirai and Mugabe.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Transition, Rigged Elections, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

134. Contesting and Turning over Power: Implications for Consolidation of Democracy in Lesotho

Author:
Libuseng Malephane
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Since its transition to electoral democracy in 1993, Lesotho has experienced a series of upheavals related to the electoral process. Election results were vehemently contested in 1998, when the ruling Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) won all but one of the country’s constituencies under a first-past-the-post electoral system, and a military intervention by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) was required to restore order. A mixed member proportional (MMP) model introduced in the run-up to the 2002 general elections resulted in more parties being represented in Parliament. The MMP model also led to the formation of informal coalitions as political parties endeavoured to maintain or increase their seats in Parliament in the 2007 elections (Kapa, 2007). Using a two-ballot system, with one ballot for constituency and another for the proportional-representation (PR) component, the elections preserved the ruling LCD’s large majority in Parliament and precipitated another protracted dispute between the ruling and opposition parties over the allocation of PR seats.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Political Parties, Transition, Parliamentarism, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Africa and Lesotho

135. From going between to working together: Learning from structures and attitudes in South Africa’s transition

Author:
Jannie Malan
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
In the old South Africa, with its inhabitants divided into two worlds by an ideology-driven white minority, H.W. van der Merwe was one of the first white Afrikaners who took the risk of crossing the boundary which in the culture of his own group was upheld as divinely ordained. On account of the radical change in his socio-political convictions, and his resulting research and teaching, he was appointed as director of an institution aiming at improving intergroup relations through applied research and educational programmes. He also took the lead in founding an association for conflict intervention. His remarkable contribution to the anti-apartheid struggle and the eventual resolving of the white-black conflict was not only a structural one, however, but also an interrelated attitudinal one. His outreaching understanding and his courageous quest for justice and peace enabled him to bring adversaries together, and also to confront the unflinching guardians of apartheid. It behoves us, therefore, to celebrate his example and to emulate it in our current context. We may be grateful for the degree to which transition has already taken shape in the new South Africa, but so much remains to be done to minimise socio-cultural distances between sectors of fellow-South Africans. H.W.’s legacy may indeed help us to respect ‘them’ and ‘us’ where appropriate, but also to promote an ‘all of us’ orientation as far as fellow-humanly possible.
Topic:
Apartheid, Transitional Justice, Social Cohesion, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

136. The Role of the Military in the Constitution-making Process as a part of Democratic Transition: The Comparative Cases of Turkey and Egypt

Author:
Merve Ince
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
The role of the military in the politics in the developing or socalled “Third World” countries has always been fundamental in order to comprehend the historical process of democratization movements in these countries. To be able to fully grasp the politics, particularly democratic transitions, in the Middle East, it is indispensable to look at the role of the military within the transition process. However, because the democratic transition processes involves different practices, in my research paper, I will focus on the role of military within the constitution-making processes in order to narrow down my research. I have chosen the constitution-making process because, as argued by Özbudun, constitution-making, especially during democratic transitions, is an excellent opportunity to build political institutions that will enjoy broad support from society and its political elites. Both the constitution-making process and its outcome are crucial aspects of the transition to and consolidation of democracy. In this regard, in this study, I have chosen to study Egypt and Turkey comparatively in terms of their military involvement in the constitution making process. It should be noted that in both Turkey and Egypt, previous constitutions were made directly by the military or under military influence through various means, which I will evaluate in my research paper in detailed way. I have chosen these two countries due to two reasons. My initial inspiration is derived from that currently, these two significant countries of the region are in the constitution-making process. When we look at current situation of Turkey, it can be argued that Turkey is in constitution-making process, which is supposed to be totally civilian without the influence of the military. On the other hand, in terms of Egypt, it is argued that following to the Arab Spring, Egypt’s new constitution will be the roadmap to a second republic that most Egyptians hope will be free from the tyranny, corruption, and nepotism, which were the trademarks of Egypt’s political life. The second reason is that despite the fact that Egypt and Turkey differ from each other in terms of longevity of their democratic experiences, the militaries of two countries demonstrate some core similarities, which is noteworthy in terms of comparing the two. Considering all of these, the aim of this study is to see how the military can be a part of the political system, especially in the making of constitution, and to understand the current situation and changing position of the militaries in these countries.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Democracy, State Building, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Egypt

137. What Will "Our Turn to Eat" Mean the Day After the Kenyan Elections?

Author:
Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
All eyes are on Kenya today as some 14 million citizens are expected to vote for an array of candidates for president and other offices. The world hopes to avoid a repeat of the post-election violence in late 2007 and early 2008 that killed some 1,500 people and created as many as 600,000 refugees, a trauma that lingers even five years later. Indeed, one candidate and his running mate are under indictment at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for their role in the 2008 violence. Nonetheless, at a rally last weekend, six presidential candidates held hands and committed to accept the results of the vote. While there are reports of scattered pre-election violence, most observers do not expect a repeat of the last cycle’s mayhem. In this circumstance, it’s easy to lose sight of the dramatic changes in Kenya’s political and governmental structure that take place tomorrow. These elections launch an entirely new constitutional arrangement for Kenya.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Constitution, and Transition
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

138. Homo Politicus and His Religiousness in Transitional Societies of Kirghizia

Author:
Irina I. Ivanova and Vadim P. Tutlis
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article deals with a analysis of Homo politicus and Homo religiosis in postsoviet Kirghizia. On that political condition in the West and political ones in the East are compared. The authors draw a conclusion that reference point for modern transitional Kirghizia must be not political absenteeism but a junction of all citizens to policy.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, Transition, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kirghizia

139. Conclusions of the 17th Forum 2000 Conference

Author:
Gareth Evans
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
Abstract:
A constantly recurring theme in our discussions has been the extent to which a country’s, or group of countries’, distinctive history and culture impacts on what can be done and how quickly it can be done when it comes to both initiating and sustaining transitions from authoritarianism to democracy, and in particular whether revolutions are likely to consolidate or collapse.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Conference, Transition, and Society
Political Geography:
Global Focus

140. Europe in Transition: Lessons to be Learned

Author:
Ludger Kühnhardt
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
In this age of instant global media coverage, it is easy to lose perspective as well as one’s view of the horizon. A week is a long time in politics, as the saying goes. A week of media coverage may be even longer, one might add. And after months of coverage, a single issue may have turned from fact to fiction or from fiction to fact. An event can become a process, a challenge can become a problem, a difficulty can become a crisis. Cause and effect may become blurred by the subtle power of media and the shorthand that is inevitably used to frame a phenomenon. Explanations can give way to labels, for better or worse. The European Union (EU) has been on this roller coaster for the last three years. When Lehmann Brothers of the United States (US) went bankrupt in 2008, the root causes of the crash were swiftly connected with that country’s mortgage crisis (subprime bubble). Too many too-cheap mortgages had made too many Americans the owner of a house that they could suddenly no longer finance. It seemed to be solely an American problem to have lived beyond one’s means; Europe was only challenged by finding a way to avoid the spillover effects from the US financial crisis. Three years later, however, the tides of fortune had changed. The sovereign debt crises of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy turned into a crisis of the euro, if not of the European Union. Not only were causes and effects confused; context and implication had also become confusing.
Topic:
International Relations, Financial Crisis, European Union, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe