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101. Keeping Ethiopia’s Transition on the Rails

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ethiopia’s political opening under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has won well-deserved accolades but also uncorked dangerous centrifugal forces, among them ethnic strife. With international partners’ diplomatic and financial support, the government should proceed more cautiously – and consultatively – with reforms that could exacerbate tensions. What’s new? Clashes in October 2019 in Oromia, Ethiopia’s most populous region, left scores of people dead. They mark the latest explosion of ethnic strife that has killed hundreds and displaced millions across the country over the past year and half. Why did it happen? Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has taken important steps to move the country toward more open politics. But his efforts to dismantle the old order have weakened the Ethiopian state and given new energy to ethno-nationalism. Hostility among the leaders of Ethiopia’s most powerful regions has soared. Why does it matter? Such tensions could derail Ethiopia’s transition. Meanwhile, reforms Abiy is making to the country’s powerful but factious ruling coalition anger opponents, who believe that they aim to undo Ethiopia’s ethnic federalist system, and could push the political temperature still higher. Elections in May 2020 could be divisive and violent. What should be done? Abiy should step up efforts to mend divisions within and among Ethiopia’s regions and push all parties to avoid stoking tensions around the elections. International partners should press Ethiopian leaders to curb incendiary rhetoric and offer increased aid to protect the country from economic shocks that could aggravate political problems.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

102. Safeguarding Sudan’s Revolution

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan’s post-Bashir transition holds the promise of civilian rule but also perils, among them renewed insurgency, economic stagnation and backsliding into autocracy. Outside powers should press the military to adhere to its power-sharing pact with the opposition. Authorities in Khartoum should pursue peace with rebels. What’s new? Since Omar al-Bashir’s 11 April ouster, Sudan’s military leadership and opposition alliance have appointed a new prime minister, formed a cabinet and assembled a supervisory council to oversee a power-sharing deal concluded on 17 August. If honoured, the deal could pave the way for elections and civilian rule. Why does it matter? Sudan faces a crushing economic crisis, insurgencies and political polarisation, with a security establishment bent on keeping power and an opposition movement determined to instal a fully civilian administration. The 17 August agreement represents the best pathway both to achieving reform and to averting spiralling violence. What should be done? The AU, U.S. and EU, together with Gulf states, should push the generals to respect the power-sharing deal. They should encourage Khartoum to make peace with insurgents in peripheral areas. The U.S. should rescind Sudan’s state sponsor of terrorism designation while maintaining pressure on the military in other ways.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economy, Negotiation, Revolution, Transition, and Omar al-Bashir
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

103. Russian-Syrian Business Cooperation: Challenges and Prospects

Author:
Igor A. Matveev
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In order to achieve the goals of the “Rebuild Syria” strategy, Damascus has been trying to attract investment from friendly countries, viewing business cooperation with Russia as a cornerstone of such efforts. Moscow has not yet made a final choice between a comprehensive “broad” approach, aimed at building a long-term economic presence in Syria, and a “narrow approach” of outsourcing the country’s reconstruction to selective Russian companies capable of securing rapid compensation for Russia’s expenditures during the Syrian war. Currently the second approach seems to prevail. The modalities of the Russia-Syria business cooperation are based on the “government-to-government” (G2G), “business-to-government” (B2G) and “business-to-business” (B2B) formats with the first two being preferable for Russian partners. Traders and industrialists from Russia encounter opportunities and challenges in Syria, related to the need of Damascus to restore and modernise the national economy amidst the disruption of the territory and to socioeconomic life, disconnection from the global financial system, Western sanctions against Moscow and Damascus, a history of unsuccessful B2B practices and over-bureaucracy in Syria, hence a preference for G2G and B2G. Future mutual economic ties depend on the evolution of the environment around Syria, reconciliation inside the country and the improvement of the domestic business climate. Moscow is making an effort to push the UN, the EU and GCC states to become donors; although Syria-Russia-EU coordination on other matters seems unlikely due to the latter’s negative political image inside Syria and Damascus’s reliance on Russia and Iran.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Business, Syrian War, Reconciliation, and Transition
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, and Syria

104. Zimbabwe's Elections and Political Change in Southern Africa

Author:
Michelle D. Gavin
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassadors Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
One needn’t have a preference among the 23 candidates who contested for the presidency of Zimbabwe last summer to find the overall result of the elections deeply disappointing. What had been billed as a chance to turn the page on Zimbabwe’s international isolation, economic collapse and politics of fear instead exposed continued political violence, the unwillingness of the powers that be in the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) to create a genuinely level playing field for political competition and elites’ overall contempt for average citizens. But while all of this makes it tempting to write off hopes for meaningful change in Zimbabwe, it is possible that the country is only at the beginning of a long and slow transition—the same process of reimagining the underpinnings of the state that is underway in many of its southern African neighbors.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Violence, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Zimbabwe, and Southern Africa

105. Academic Integrity In Transitional Societies (Ukraine)

Author:
Bielova Valeriia
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Institution:
Studies of Changing Societies Journal (SCS)
Abstract:
The modern scientific world literally breaks the discussion about the quality of scientific research, the reliability of research practices, the purity of the experiment, plagiarism and dishonesty. Solid men, whose creative reserve is measured by hundreds of scientific publications, and young scientists who are making only first steps in science, officials from science and the scientific community today put forward to each other a huge amount of both fair and fake accusations that can lead to a split of a large Institute of national science and education, the suspension of scientific research, the deformation of their main functions − to pave the way to the truth, and from it — to practice.
Topic:
Higher Education, Academia, Transition, and Academic Integrity
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

106. A Smoother Trade Transition for Graduating LDCs

Author:
Kimberly Ann Elliott
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
For nearly 50 years, the world’s “least developed countries” have received extra financial support and preferential trade treatment to help them grow and develop. In the first three decades after the Unit- ed Nations (UN) created the LDC category in 1971, only one country—diamond-rich Botswana—out- grew that status. Since then, four more countries have graduated, and the pace is set to accelerate over the coming decade. Moreover, the countries approaching graduation in the next decade will pose different adjustment challenges than those that preceded them. When a country successfully graduates, it loses access to the special finance and trade programs that come with LDC status. In the case of trade, that can mean the graduating country’s exporters sudden- ly face the higher tariffs that their more advanced competitors face, so-called most-favored nation (MFN) tariffs. Even if these countries remain eligible for the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) that is available to developing countries, those programs are typically much less generous than the duty-free, quota-free market access that most advanced economies provide for LDCs.1 Moreover, out- side the European Union (EU), few countries provide transition measures for graduating LDCs (see Annex A). Nor does there appear to be much planning to prepare for the coming wave of graduations. The United Kingdom has already committed to provide barrier-free market access for LDCs, similar to the EU’s Everything But Arms (EBA) program.2 But British policymakers have a unique opportunity to improve on that model as part of post-Brexit trade and development planning, including to ad- dress the coming wave of graduations. And if the UK remains in the customs union, it can work with EU policymakers to improve the graduation process as part of the review of the GSP regulation that expires in 2023.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, European Union, Trade, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

107. The Born Frees as Assertive Citizens? Student Protests and Democratic Prospects in South Africa

Author:
Dagmar Kusa
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Massive student protests in South Africa in the past few years, largest since the times of the anti-apartheid struggles, raised several questions for political scientists. Are we witnessing a generational change? Or are they a sign of a broader global shift towards “asser- tive citizenship” present in advanced democracies and democratizing countries? To answer these questions, this paper examines the levels of political support and nature of political participation among the young generation. The paper also points out that generational change is not immediately visible in public opinion polls but is a process of a gradual narrative construction. Protests brought with them a challenge to the founding narrative of a united Rainbow Nation and reconciliation with the past, leading to a fracture in democratic stability. For the democratic project to suc- ceed, it is essential that the national project in South Africa does not fall apart.
Topic:
Apartheid, Political Parties, Participation, Transition, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

108. The Formation of Local Self-government During the System Transformation Period in Poland and the Former GDR

Author:
Adam Jarosz
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This paper presents changes that have occurred at the local level in Poland and new German federal states during the process of the post-communist system transforma- tion. The stages of rebuilding the local self-government and its structures are analyzed. The experiences of Poland and Eastern Germany – two states where the system transformation took different courses – were compared. At the same time, both countries have different constitutional orders of the unitary state and federal state, and this context are interesting fields for a comparative analysis. This paper also confronts the two methods of institution building – the importing of well-established institutions and developing them in the evolu- tionary way, where in both cases path a dependency can be well observed. In Germany this is considered a special case (Sonderfall) of institutional transformation, in which the key role was played by the transference of institutions, personnel and financial means. This was also done much quicker and in a more structured and comprehensive way than in Poland. In the case of Poland, the creation of local self-government structures or shaping the political actors was a grassroots and evolutionary process. This article points out the most important factors that had a crucial significance in the course and results of the transformation and explains different ways of developing the system of democratic local self-government.
Topic:
Governance, Local, Federalism, and Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Germany

109. Justice through Transitions: Conflict, Peacemaking and Human Rights in the Global South

Author:
César Rodríguez and Meghan Morris
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
The chapters in this volume illustrate many complexities of transitional justice processes from the perspective of young human rights advocates involved in these struggles, many with their own complicated personal connections to the search for justice. These advocates hail from countries that have divergent relationships with the notion of transitional justice, from places deeply embedded in its norms and processes, such as Argentina and Colombia, to countries undergoing various kinds of transitions on very different terms, such as Turkey and Mexico. All of the chapters, however, write the messiness of seeking justice through transitions, spanning from the personal and intimate to the national and global. Together, these chapters beautifully illustrate both the pain and the political possibilities that come from the inability to leave history in the past, as well as the creativity of individual and collective efforts to seek justice through transitions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Transitional Justice, Justice, and Transition
Political Geography:
Global South

110. The Mission Is Gone, but the UN Is Staying: Liberia’s Peacekeeping Transition

Author:
Daniel Forti and Lesley Connolly
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
From 2003 to 2018, the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) was ever-present throughout the country. The peacekeeping mission’s work, and its transition out of the country, are considered positive examples of how the UN can support countries through conflict and post-conflict phases. Nevertheless, UNMIL’s transition offers many lessons that member states, UN officials, and international partners can learn in order to strengthen future UN peacekeeping transitions. This paper examines the process of Liberia’s transition from a peacekeeping mission to a UN country team configuration, focusing on the period from July 2016 to July 2018. It identifies the political and operational dynamics that drove the transition, examines the policy processes and context within which the transition was executed, and assesses the ability of the UN’s post-mission configuration to sustain peace in Liberia. The paper underscores that member states and the UN Secretariat should change their approach to transitions from racing against deadlines to instead viewing them as processes that begin well before a peacekeeping mission closes and continue for several years after the mission ends. By viewing transitions as long-term, multi-stakeholder activities, member states have the opportunity to ensure that future transitions adopt integrated approaches with adequate political, operational, and financial support.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Peace, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia