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1192. Global Cleanout: An Emerging Approach to the Civil Nuclear Material Threat
- Author:
- Philipp C. Bleek
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Terrorists and states hostile to the United States and its allies are pursuing nuclear weapons. The acquisition of even primitive nuclear weapons by terrorists willing to sacrifice their own lives to kill thousands of civilians would be catastrophic, while nuclear proliferation to hostile states poses grave dangers.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and Central Asia
1193. States at Risk and Failed States
- Author:
- Marina S. Ottaway and Stefan Mair
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Failing and failed states present a grave danger to international stability as well as to the well-being of their populations. Internationally, they can become safe havens for terrorist organizations, centers for the trade of drugs and arms, and breeding grounds for dangerous diseases. Regionally, they can spill instability well past their borders and create a conflict dynamic affecting neighboring countries. Domestically, they cannot provide security for their citizens or deliver essential public goods. Beyond these immediate threats, failure of states also means the appearance of a growing number of stateless territories, a phenomenon with which the governments of Western countries are poorly prepared to deal. Despite all the astute reflections on the importance of non-state actors in international affairs and on the need to rethink the concept of sovereignty, states are still the central actors and units of global governance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Welfare, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
1194. Assessing America's War on Terror: Confronting Insurgency, Cementing Primacy
- Author:
- Ashley J. Tellis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- During the 1990s the United States and its allies enjoyed a much sought-after period of prosperity and tranquility following the end of the Cold War. In hindsight, however, it is now apparent that Al Qaeda, a fiercely anti-American global terrorist network, was taking root in over sixty countries during this period, culminating in the devastating September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, D.C. The Bush administration, which had entered office determined to secure U.S. primacy amid the emergence of major power centers in Asia, such as China, soon found itself forced to confront a worldwide Islamist insurgency. This study analyzes the relevance of terrorist groups as substatal actors in international politics, their influence on deeper dynamics of the international system, and the challenges facing the United States posed by transnational terrorist organizations. It argues that international terrorism, although currently salient, does not necessarily replace or even alter the traditional concerns of international politics, but rather subsists among them. On balance, the United States has managed these interlocking challenges with partial success, and needs to pay greater attention to pursuing the legitimacy and protecting the economic foundations of its power. Failing to do so, or waging a poorly defined “war against all,” carries the risk of far-reaching economic and political reverberations that may, in the not-too-distant future, enervate the United States, undermine its legitimacy as the sole superpower, and gradually erode continued American dominance in the world order.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, New York, Washington, Middle East, and Asia
1195. Islamists in the Arab World: The Dance Around Democracy
- Author:
- Graham E. Fuller
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- ARE ISLAM AND DEMOCRACY COMPATIBLE? And are Islamists willing to accept a democratic order and work within it? Debate has swirled around these two grand questions for decades and has produced a broad variety of responses, often quite polarized. Whatever we may think about Islamists, the topic matters vitally because in the Middle East today they have few serious ideological rivals in leading opposition movements against a failing status quo. These Islamist movements are characterized by rapid growth, evolution, change, and diversification. In the Arab world the only ideological competition comes from Arab nationalism, the left, and liberal democracy, in diminishing order of size and importance. More significantly, since the Al Qaeda attacks of September 11, 2001, and the declaration of the Bush administration's war on terrorism, Arab nationalists and the left increasingly share a common cause with the Islamists in the face of growing political confrontation with the United States. This rising hostility shows no abatement as yet and permits political Islam (Islamism) to gain ever greater ground.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
1196. WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications
- Author:
- George Perkovich, Joseph Cirincione, Jessica T. Mathews, and Alexis Orton
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- If history is any guide, the war and subsequent occupation and reconstruction of Iraq will shape U.S. relations with the Arab world—and perhaps with the whole Muslim world—for decades, just as prior military occupations altered U.S. relations with Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia. What happens in Iraq is also likely to profoundly affect whether and with what degree of effort and success states choose to work together to constrain the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The war and its aftermath will affect U.S. foreign relations, influence U.S. policies regarding future armed interventions, and alter the international struggle against terrorism. It is a massive understatement, then, to say that a great deal is at stake, on the ground in Iraq, around the world, and in the lessons for the future that will be drawn here at home.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Arabia, Latin America, and Caribbean
1197. America After 9/11: Public Opinion on the War on Terrorism, the War with Iraq, and America's Place in the World.
- Author:
- Karlyn H. Bowman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Polls should not be used to make policy whether the issue is sending troops into battle or shoring up Social Security. They are too crude for that purpose. That said, policy makers need to be aware of what the public is thinking. That is what this collection is designed to do. We are very grateful for the cooperation the pollsters have given us in making the collection possible. The document is a work in progress. We began putting it together in late September 2001, and we have updated it almost every week, adding new sections as new issues have arisen. With 14 national pollsters in the field on a regular basis, the polling environment has become very competitive. The different ways that pollsters approach a topic and the responses they receive are often useful in understanding what Americans are thinking.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, and Middle East
1198. European Defense Reform Print Mail: The Beginning of the Beginning
- Author:
- Radek Sikorski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Europe has been slow to respond to the menace of terrorism, but there are signs that its perception of threats is converging with that of the United States. Paradoxically, America's costly war in Iraq is convincing Europeans that they need a more capable military to give them greater influence over how the West uses force beyond its perimeter.
- Topic:
- Security and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Europe
1199. Update on the Global Campaign Against Terrorist Financing
- Author:
- Marice R. Greenberg, Mallory Factor, William F. Wechsler, and Lee S. Wolosky
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In October 2002, this Task Force issued its initial report on terrorist financing. That report described the nature of the al-Qaeda financial network, the actions that had been taken to date to combat terrorist financing, and the obstacles that hindered those efforts.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
1200. Stability, Security, and Sovereignty in the Republic of Georgia
- Author:
- David L. Phillips
- Publication Date:
- 01-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The Republic of Georgia suffers from pervasive problems. Popular frustrations boiled over after the November 2, 2003, parliamentary elections, which international observers determined were fraudulent. Facing mass protests and civil disobedience, President Eduard Shevardnadze resigned. The so-called revolution of roses culminated in a peaceful transfer of power when Mikhail Saakashvili assumed the presidency after receiving 96 percent of the vote in a special ballot on January 4, 2004.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Asia, and Georgia