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1081. Chechnya Weekly: Volume 7, Issue 4

Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On January 25, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) passed a resolution on the human rights situation in Chechnya. According to PACE's website (assembly.coe.int), the resolution, which passed by a vote of 117 to 24, stated that the Strasbourg-based assembly "is deeply concerned that a fair number of governments, member states and the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe have failed to address the ongoing serious human rights violations in a regular, serious and intensive manner, despite the fact that such violations still occur on a massive scale in the Chechen Republic and, in some cases, neighboring regions in a climate of impunity." The assembly also reiterated its "unambiguous condemnation of all acts of terrorism" and expressed "its understanding of the difficulties the Russian Federation faces in combating terrorism."
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Human Rights, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Chechnya

1082. From Counter-Society to Counter-State: Jemaah Islamiyah According to PUPJI

Author:
Elena Pavlova
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The General Guide for the Struggle of AlJama'ah Al-Islamiyah (Pedoman Umum Perjuangan Al-Jama'ah Al-Islamiyah) – commonly known under its acronym PUPJI – is an essential document for understanding Southeast Asia's most deadly terror network. Issued by Jemaah Islamiyah's Central Executive Council (Qiyadah Markaziyah), it outlines the group's administrative structure and guiding religious principles, in addition to providing insights into its organizational development, membership recruitment, and operational strategy. From the time Jemaah Islamiyah was established on January 1, 1993 – as the result of an internal split within the Darul Islam (DI) movement – until the time it first engaged in terrorist activities – with the Medan church bombings on May 28, 2000 – the group was structured and managed in accordance with this handbook. To understand Jemaah Islamiyah, therefore, we must understand PUPJI.
Topic:
International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Asia

1083. The LTTE's Online Network and its Implications for Regional Security

Author:
Shyam Tekwani
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
In the light of the expanding online networks of terrorist groups and the immediate and foreseeable threat they represent both to the sovereignty of nations and the security of the critical and informational infrastructures, the case for securitization of the internet is a valid and urgent one. This paper will use the case study of the online network of the LTTE to demonstrate how online networks pose a security threat and how securitization of the internet can offer solutions.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Sovereignty, and Terrorism

1084. The Rise and Fall of the Bush Doctrine: the Impact on Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Justin Vaisse
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies
Abstract:
Between 2002 and 2005, a relatively coherent and profoundly renewed strategic approach to international relations was developed by the Bush administration. Premised on an optimistic assessment of great power relations (”a balance of power that favors freedom”), it emphasized the importance of promoting democracy as a way to solve many of the long-term political and security problems of the greater Middle East. It rested on the view that American military power and assertive diplomacy should be used to defeat tyrannies, challenge a pernicious status quo and coerce states into abandoning weapons of mass destruction and support for terrorism - without worrying too much about legitimacy or formal multilateralism. The Bush doctrine led to tensions with the Europeans, who for the most part shared neither the world view that underpinned it nor its optimism about possible results, especially as far as geopolitical stability, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction were concerned. Then, in 2005, two silent developments took place: the Bush administration, while insisting on staying the course rhetorically (through “transformational diplomacy”), reverted to classical realism in its actual diplomacy - largely for reasons of expediency. China and India, on the other hand, imposed themselves on the global agenda, bringing multipolarity back into the picture of the world to come. While generally closer to European views, the new American realist line remains distinct from the European insistence on strengthening the rules and institutions of global governance.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Terrorism, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

1085. Weak States and Global Threats: Assessing Evidence of Spillovers

Author:
Stewart Patrick
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
A key motivation behind recent donor attention and financial resources devoted to developing countries is the presumed connection between weak and failing states, on the one hand, and a variety of transnational threats, on the other. Indeed, it has become conventional wisdom that poorly performing states generate multiple cross-border “spillovers,” including terrorism, weapons proliferation, organized crime, regional instability, global pandemics, and energy insecurity. What is striking is how little empirical evidence underpins such sweeping assertions. A closer look suggests that the connection between state weakness and global threats is less clear and more variable than typically assumed. Both the type and extent of “spillovers” depend in part on whether the weakness in question is a function of state capacity, will, or a combination of the two. Moreover, a preliminary review suggests that some trans-border threats are more likely to emerge not from the weakest states but from stronger states that possess narrower but critical gaps in capacity and will. Crafting an effective U.S. and international strategy towards weak states and the cross-border spillovers they sometimes generate will depend on a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms linking these two sets of phenomena. The challenge for analysts and policymakers will be to get greater clarity about which states are responsible for which threats and design development and other external interventions accordingly. This working paper represents an initial foray in this direction, suggesting avenues for future research and policy development.
Topic:
Security, Globalization, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

1086. Countering Afghanistan's Insurgency: No Quick Fixes

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Fierce battles rage in southern Afghanistan, insurgent attacks in the east creep towards the provinces surrounding Kabul and a new campaign of terrorist violence targets urban centres. The country's democratic government is not immediately threatened but action is needed now. This includes putting more international forces into the battle zones but insurgencies are never beaten by military means alone, and there are no quick fixes. Diplomatic pressure on Pakistan is needed, and the government of President Karzai must show political will to respond to internal discontent with serious efforts to attack corruption, work with the elected National Assembly and extend the rule of law by ending the culture of impunity. Afghanistan needs a renewed, long-term effort to build an effective, fair government that provides real security to its people.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Asia, and Kabul

1087. Terrorism in Indonesia: Noordin's Networks

Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Indonesian police are closing in on Noordin Mohammed Top, South East Asia's most wanted terrorist. In a dramatic pre-dawn raid on 29 April 2006 in Wonosobo, Central Java, they shot and killed two members of his inner circle and arrested two others. If and when they capture Noordin, they will have put the person most determined to attack Western targets out of commission. But the problem of Noordin's support structure will still have to be tackled.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

1088. Iraq's Muqtada Al-Sadr: Spoiler or Stabiliser?

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With stepped-up U.S.-led raids against Muqtada al-Sadr's militia, Jaysh al-Mahdi, and media allegations of the militia's responsibility for widespread and particularly horrendous sectarian killings in Baghdad on 9 July, the Shiite leader and his movement have become more central than ever. The war in Iraq radically reshuffled the country's political deck, bringing to the fore new actors and social forces, none more surprising and enigmatic, and few as critical to Iraq's stability, as Muqtada al-Sadr and the Sadrist movement he embodies. Largely unknown prior to the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime and bereft of resources Shiites typically must possess to assert their authority, Muqtada al-Sadr at first was dismissed as a marginal rabble-rouser, excluded from the political process and, after he flexed his muscles, decreed wanted “dead or alive” by the U.S.-led coalition. Learning the hard way, the U.S. and its allies have had to recognise the reality of the Sadrists' strength.
Topic:
Democratization and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

1089. Iraqi Tribunal Imposes Death Sentence on Saddam Hussein

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The Iraqi High Tribunal (IHT), or Iraqi Higher Criminal Court, previously known as the Iraqi Special Tribunal (IST), announced Nov. 5, 2006, that it was sentencing former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein Al-Majeed to death by hanging. The verdict comes in the first prosecution Saddam has faced before the tribunal, for the 1982 mass killing of villagers in the Shia town of Dujayl and related atrocities. Bringing Saddam and his henchmen to justice has posed unique challenges to an Iraq that seeks to make a former totalitarian dictatorship subject to rule of law, and in the process respect rule of law by providing fair trials. Unclear is the extent to which efforts to establish an historical record of atrocities, and undertake national healing, would be thwarted by executing Saddam before he can be tried for additional incidents. Of added significance are concerns raised by some voices that the death penalty itself is immoral and inconsistent with rule of law.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

1090. Afghanistan Stage III: NATO's most ambitious operation?

Author:
Francis Rheinheimer
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In the months ahead, NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) will deploy thousands more troops to Afghanistan as part of its ongoing mission to “support the Government of Afghanistan in providing and maintaining a secure environment in order to facilitate the re-building of Afghanistan.” Troop levels are expected to rise from about 8,000 in January to 17,000 by the end of October. The expansion, known as Stage III, will be responsible for maintaining security in the troubled southern provinces, where most violent attacks against foreign and domestic forces have taken place. NATO's commander, U.S. Gen. James L. Jones said ISAF could total as many as 25,000 troops eventually. British, Dutch and Canadian forces will be leading the effort to bring peace to Afghanistan through both civilian and military methods. Troops will be engaged in peacekeeping, reconstruction and, in all likelihood, open conflict – an effort Jones called “NATO's most ambitious operation.” Despite a lack of popular support for the missions in all three of the main troop-contributing countries, international leaders have pledged to safeguard Afghanistan from both internal and external forces that would otherwise lead the country into chaos.
Topic:
NATO, Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan