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41. South Caucasus: What Prospects after Twenty Years of "Managed Instability"?

Author:
Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union and the independence of the three Caucasian Republics of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, the region remains characterized by a state of “managed instability” due to the absence of solutions to the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan (over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh) and between Georgia and Russia (over territorial issues and political differences). Negotiation mechanisms aimed at solving these issues exist (since 1992 for Nagorno-Karabakh, and since 1991 for Georgia), but they do not appear to produce meaningful results, raising questions on the purpose of these mechanisms and the future of the region beyond the lasting status quo. A movement toward deeper instability in the region, which cannot be excluded, would pose a direct security threat to Europe, as well as to Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Cold War, Territorial Disputes, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

42. The Western Balkans and the EU: 'the hour of Europe'

Author:
Jacques Rupnik (ed)
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Today, more than fifteen years after the end of the wars of Yugoslavia's dissolution, the 'Balkan question' remains more than ever a 'European question'. In the eyes of many Europeans in the 1990s, Bosnia was the symbol of a collective failure, while Kosovo later became a catalyst for an emerging Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). In the last decade, with the completion of the process of redrawing the map of the region, the overall thrust of the EU's Balkans policy has moved from an agenda dominated by security issues related to the war and its legacies to an agenda focused on the perspective of the Western Balkan states' accession to the European Union, to which there has been a formal political commitment on the part of all EU Member States since the Thessaloniki Summit in June 2003. The framework was set, the political elites in the region were – at least verbally – committed to making Europe a priority and everyone was supposedly familiar with the policy tools thanks to the previous wave of Eastern enlargement. With the region's most contentious issues apparently having been defused, the EU could move from stability through containment towards European integration.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, Sectarian violence, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

43. Stakeholders of Libya's February 17 Revolution

Author:
Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof and Manal Omar
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Who the rebels are in Libya has been a common question surrounding the revolution that overthrew Muammar Gadhafi. This report maps out the factions in Libya's east, centering on Benghazi. It identifies the various groups, their narratives, their part in the revolution, and emergent grievances that could translate into instability or future conflicts. Libyans share a strong sense of historical narrative and ownership of the recent revolution, but complexities lie within that ownership. There are tensions between the youth movement and the National Transitional Council; between local Libyans and returning members of the Libyan diaspora; between secular groups and religious ones, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood; within militia groups that did the fighting; and among Libya's tribes and ethnic groups. The widespread sense of ownership of the revolution, which kept morale high during the fighting, has translated to expectations of quick improvements, both overall and in people's day-to-day lives. Managing expectations will be key to ensuring that tensions within Libyan society do not overcome the sense of unity that the revolution fostered. International actors should ensure that local ownership of the political process remains at the fore and is not undermined. In addition, research is needed to understand the situation in Libya more clearly, in order to identify ways that the international community can support, aid, and advise local efforts in forming a stable and secure environment in Libya.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

44. Palestinian UN Vote and Triple-faced EU Policies

Author:
Patrycja Sasnal and Daniel Levy
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The question of recognising the Palestinian state has once again revealed deep divisions within the EU, its weakness and marginality of the problem in light of the euro crisis. In the following study Patrycja Sasnal examines the Palestinian options at the United Nations and claims that the EU can still save face and make a difference in the Peace Process by unanimously abstaining or voting in favour of the Palestinian state, depending on the wording of the resolution. Daniel Levy then gives reasons for why a "yes" vote at the UN can advance the Peace Process. In a chaotic and changing Middle East the immediate goal is to avoid another round of violence between the conflicted parties.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

45. South Sudan on the Eve of Independence. Assessing the Viability of the World's Newest State

Author:
Berenika Stefanska
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 9 July 2011, South Sudan will declare its independence from the Republic of Sudan. The independence comes after 22 years of civil war, which ended in 2005 thanks to an internationally brokered Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The treaty was signed by President Omar al-Bashir and the late John Garang, head of the rebel Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM). It included provisions for a referendum in January 2011 in the 10 southern states to determine their political future. People in the south voted overwhelmingly (98.7%) for independence. The result of the referendum was recognised by the northern ruling National Congress Party (NCP). Most countries already have stated their intention to recognise the Republic of South Sudan.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa

46. We the Peoples? The Birth and Death of Self-Determination

Author:
Uriel Abulof
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper traces the discourse of self-determination, its rise and possible demise. Self-determination evolved in three phases. The concept emerged from the intra-socialist debate on how to reconcile socialism and nationalism. The Bolshevik Revolution subsequently transformed this ideological debate into a “speech-act,” an act predicated, practically and ethically, on a specific speech. The concept was then universalized by Western diplomacy. Drawing on both content and discourse analysis, I argue that while self-determination as a political concept is still alive, as a universal speech-act it may be dying. Three trends undermine self-determination's ideal of duality (pertaining to both the individual and the collective) and mutuality (for the self as well as for others): (1) overshadowing the self-determination of peoples with the other-determination of states; (2) increasingly excluding non-colonized and ethnic peoples from the realm of eligible groups; (3) defending existing states while denying statehood to stateless peoples, due to both globalization and the rising emphasis on the state's functions, to protect and to represent, as prerequisites for self-determination. I conclude by suggesting that self-determination may be gradually developing to focus less on advancing new polities and more on justifying existing ones.
Topic:
Nationalism, Sovereignty, International Affairs, Political Theory, and Self Determination