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7281. China's Post-Deng Military Leadership: New Faces, New Trends

Author:
David Shambaugh
Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
It is a pleasure to be here at Stanford to discuss China's new military leadership, and to share some preliminary findings from my research on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). One key feature of the new leadership in China today, following the passing of patriarch Deng Xiaoping, are the new faces to be found in the military. The PLA High Command today (see Appendix) is almost entirely new. There has been almost total turnover of the top twenty to thirty military officers in China during the last three years. This includes all the commanders, deputy commanders, and political commissars in all seven military region commands; the General Staff, Logistics, and Political Departments; the two major educational institutions of the PLA, the National Defense University and the Academy of Military Sciences; the Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense and its successor body the general Armaments Department, and other bodies. The Central Military Commission itself has seen more than half of its membership turn over in the last few years. Only the top echelon of the Second Artillery, China's ballistic missile forces, has gone relatively untouched. I anticipate much more personnel turnover and organizational reform in the next few years as the PLA proceeds with its policy of downsizing, upgrading, and streamlining its force structure.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

7282. Benefits and Burdens: The Politically Dominated Economics of U.S. Alliances with Japan and Korea

Author:
Charles Wolf and Michele Zanini
Publication Date:
04-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Alliances are organizations between or among independent entities that concert to produce “collective goods” for the mutual benefit of alliance members. The statement applies whether the alliances are between or among countries, corporations, universities, research centers, or other institutions. Of course, the nature of the collective goods, as well as the membership in the collectivity, differs across these cases. That the goods (or benefits) are “collective” means that their availability to one alliance member (or their production by any member) implies their availability to the other members of the alliance.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Korea

7283. The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification

Author:
Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Existing estimates of the costs of unification are inadequate for a number of reasons. In this paper we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calculate South Korean and total peninsular income streams under a variety of unification (and non–unification) scenarios. We find that there are scenarios in which the present discounted value of South Korean income is higher with unification than without it. Although lower income groups in South Korea experience reduced incomes under this scenario, with redistribution of the gains, everyone can be made better off. Indeed, this scenario, which involves relatively low levels of South Korean private investment in the North together with relatively high levels of North–South migration, is also the one which generates the highest level of total peninsular income as well. The latter point is critical in that it suggests that there is no necessary conflict between the economic interests of North and South Koreans after unification.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea

7284. Integration on the Basis of Strength: China's Impact on East Asian Security

Author:
Wu Xinbo
Publication Date:
02-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China is perhaps the most important variable in East Asian security, not only because of its growing power but also because of the great uncertainty over its future. Therefore, to assess China's impact on regional security, one question should be tackled first: what will China look like in the future? There are three different schools of thought concerning China's future: the “implosion" school holds that China, unable to cope with a wide array of social, economic, and political challenges created by its rapid economic growth, will follow in the footsteps of the former Soviet Union and “implode" the “expansion" school argues that as China gradually builds up its material strength, Beijing will wield its weight and seek to establish hegemony in the region; and the “integration" school believes that as China's economy further merges with the world economy, Beijing's internal and external behaviors will slowly but inevitably conform to international norms, and China will become a more responsible and more cooperative member of the world community.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union

7285. Energy and Security in East Asia

Author:
Michael May
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This study examines the likely security consequences of the continued growth in energy consumption in East Asia, and in particular: The dimensions of that growth which are likely to have an effect on international security. The dependencies and insecurities created by that continued growth. The policy guidance that can be derived for the United States from a review of those dependencies and insecurities.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia

7286. The Japan-America Security Alliance: Prospects for the Twenty-First Century

Author:
Daniel Okimoto
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
By almost any criterion of success—be it cost–effectiveness, risk–reward ratio, multiplier effects, or sheer longevity, the Japan America Security Alliance (JASA) stands out as one of the most successful alliances in twentieth century history. For the United States, chief architect of a global network of military relationships, JASA is arguably the most important of its many bilateral alliances. In terms of historic impact, JASA is comparable to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a multilateral alliance that restructured the European security landscape in 1949. For nearly a half–century, JASA and NATO have functioned as the bedrock on which the Cold War security systems of Asia and Europe have been constructed.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, America, Europe, and Asia

7287. Tbilisi: The Tip of the Nuclear Iceberg

Author:
Toby F. Dalton
Publication Date:
04-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In a front-page story on April 21, 1998, The New York Times broke the news of Auburn Endeavor, a secret U.S.-British operation to airlift fissile material from a nuclear research facility in Tbilisi, Georgia. This operation seems to be another success for the U.S. Departments of Defense and Energy in preventing the transfer of nuclear weapons, material or technology to nuclear weapons aspirants.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
New York

7288. The United States, Europe, and the New Security Threats

Author:
Robert D. Blackwill and Kristin Archick
Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Transnational challenges, which range from the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to environmental problems to migration, have been receiving greater attention in foreign policymaking circles on both sides of the Atlantic since the end of the Cold War. Some strategists assert that many of these issues represent new threats to the security of the nation-state and to the stability of the international community. The globalization of financial markets, the spread of advanced technologies, and the rapid diffusion of information have combined to produce an increasingly interdependent world and call into question the significance of geopolitical boundaries. Cyberterrorism renders important information systems vulnerable. International organized crime and its attendant money laundering weakens the stability of global finances. Precisely because these new threats cross territorial borders, they also blur the dividing line between foreign and domestic policy. Civil strife within the territory of one state, for example, may become internationalized if it produces refugee flows into another.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States

7289. The Tests of War and the Strains of Peace

Author:
Harold Brown, Bruce Stokes, Richard L. Armitage, and James J. Shinn
Publication Date:
04-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The U.S.-Japan security relationship is far too important to peace and stability in Asia to allow it to simply wither away or to be destroyed by a crisis. But the relationship is not sustainable in the form that served it so well during the Cold War. To weather both the "tests of war" and the "strains of peace," the alliance must be strengthened by adapting to the new realities and security challenges of the 21st century. The revision of the U.S.-Japan Guidelines for Defense Cooperation, announced September 23, 1997, was an important step in that direction. But the Japanese Diet must still pass laws implementing these changes. More broadly, Japan must: make the case directly and convincingly to the Japanese public that closer security ties with the United States are in Japan's self interest; agree to engage in explicit defense cooperation so that Japanese forces can be "planned in" rather than "planned out" of U.S. military operations in a range of Asian regional contingencies; engage in a serious dialogue with the United States on long term weapons acquisition plans, including some commitment by Japan to Theater Missile Defense. For its part, the United States must: convince the American public and the Congress that a continued security relationship with Japan is essential to the United States; increase the flexibility of the Pentagon regarding the basing of its troops in Asia, including its forces in Japan, and especially in Okinawa; clearly commit to keep the Japanese security alliance as America's premier security relationship in Asia. And both nations need to: cooperate more closely in gathering and sharing intelligence; coordinate more actively on nuclear nonproliferation and counterterrorism activities; enhance mutual political consultation so that in a crisis Japan shares more authority in as well as responsibility for the alliance. These changes should be implemented at a deliberate pace with a careful eye to the political climate and the art of the possible in Washington, Tokyo, and other Asian capitals. Only in this way can the U.S.-Japan security relationship be adapted to the challenges that lie ahead.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and East Asia

7290. Differentiated Containment: U.S. Policy Toward Iran and Iraq

Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Persian Gulf is one of the few regions whose importance to the United States is obvious. The flow of Gulf oil will continue to be crucial to the economic well–being of the industrialized world for the foreseeable future; developments in the Gulf will have a critical impact on issues ranging from Arab–Israeli relations and religious extremism to terrorism and nuclear nonproliferation. Every president since Richard Nixon has recognized that ensuring Persian Gulf security and stability is a vital U.S. interest.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East