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7102. Middle East Missile Proliferation, Israeli Missile Defense, and the ABM Treaty Debate
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- For most of the Cold War period, the spread of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction to the Middle East was severely constrained by the existence of a global regime of arms control agreements and export controls that was chiefly supported by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union. But in the last decade this regime has crumbled: In the Middle East, Iran and Iraq are seeking to build their own indigenous military-industrial infrastructure for the manufacture of intermediate-range (500-5,000 kilometers) missiles, and thus reduce their dependence on imports of whole missile systems, as was the case in the 1970s and 1980s. Intercontinental strategic-range systems are also planned. These efforts are being backed not just by other rogue states, like North Korea, but by no less than Russia itself, which has abandoned the cautiousness toward proliferation that was demonstrated by the former Soviet Union. Despite Washington's efforts to stop these trends through the United Nations monitoring of Iraq and limited sanctions against Iran, the build-up of Middle Eastern missile capabilities has only worsened, especially since 1998 which saw Iran's testing of the 1,300-kilometer-range Shahab-3 and the total collapse of the UN monitoring effort. Iraq has preserved considerable elements of its missile manufacturing infrastructure, continuing to produce short-range missiles, and with large amounts of missile components still unaccounted for. Nor did the administration stop the flow of Russian missile technology to Iran. "The proliferation of medium-range ballistic missiles," CIA Director George Tenet testified on March 21, 2000, "is significantly altering strategic balances in the Middle East and Asia." Clearly, the Middle East is far more dangerous for Israel than it was in 1991 at the end of the Gulf War. While diplomatic energies over the last decade have been focused on the Arab-Israeli peace process, a major policy failure has taken place that has left Israel and the Middle East far less secure. Not only will Israel's vulnerability increase, but on the basis of these planned missile programs, the vulnerability of Europe and the Eastern United States is likely to be far greater in the next five to ten years, as well. Thus, an entirely new strategic situation is emerging in the Middle East requiring far more intense efforts in ballistic missile defense on the part of the states of the Atlantic Alliance in order to assure their own security and enhance Middle Eastern regional stability. With Russia playing such a prominent role in the disintegration of key elements of the proliferation regime, Moscow's objections to robust missile defenses on the basis of the ABM Treaty should not serve as a constraint on the development and deployment of future missile defense systems. The Russian argument that the ABM Treaty is the cornerstone of global arms control rings hollow. The arms control regime for the Middle East has completely broken down and cannot reliably serve as the primary basis for protecting national security in the new strategic environment of this region. The most promising way of assuring the defense of Israel, the U.S., and the Western alliance is through a concerted effort to neutralize the growing missile threat with robust missile defenses, combined with the deterrence capabilities that they already possess.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union
7103. The End of the Post-Gulf War Era
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Three basic conditions prevailed when the Arab-Israeli peace process began in 1991 in Madrid and accelerated in 1993 at Oslo. First, the Soviet Union crumbled and eventually collapsed, removing what had since 1955 been the strategic backbone of the Arab military option against the State of Israel. Second, Iraq was militarily crushed and under both UN sanctions and monitoring, and was therefore removed from the political and military calculus of relations between Israel and the Arab world. Third, Iran was still recovering from its eight-year war with Iraq and was far from ready to have an impact in the Middle East. Together, these three conditions created a unique moment of Pax Americana, maintained not just by virtue of American power, but by the consent of its potential rivals.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, War, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union
7104. Overthrowing Saddam Hussein: The Policy Debate
- Author:
- Max Singer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi dictator, has biological weapons capable of killing hundreds of thousands of Israelis with infectious diseases such as anthrax. These weapons could be delivered either by missiles, by small pilotless planes, or by infecting the passengers of a plane landing at Ben-Gurion Airport with less than an ounce of agent spread through the plane's air conditioning system. Saddam also has at least several nuclear weapons that are missing only highly enriched uranium which he is likely to be able either to make himself or to buy this year.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
7105. The European Union's New Crisis Management Capability
- Author:
- Raimo Väyrynen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- To the surprise of most observers, the European Union is moving quickly toward the establishment of its own crisis management capability. In its June 1999 meeting in Cologne the European Council concluded that the Union must have "the capacity for autonomous action, backed up by credible military force, the means to decide to use them, and a readiness to do so, in order to respond to international crises without prejudice to actions by NATO." The Council pledged to develop an effective EU-led military crisis management capacity in which all EU members, both NATO and non-allied countries, would participate on an equal footing. The new force will perform the so-called Petersberg tasks: humanitarian and rescue operations, peacekeeping, and the use of combat forces in crisis management, including peacemaking.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7106. Making Sense of Environmental Security
- Author:
- Frank McNeil
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- The concept of environmental security—even after more than two decades of discussion—has no widely agreed-upon formulation. However, in the metaphor used by environmentalists, environmental security can be a “canary in the mine,” signaling conflicts within nations and across borders. While environmental insults may foster violence, conflicts short of war also impose high costs, wreaking damage to economies, to societal stability, to the effectiveness of political institutions, and to international cooperation. Recent examples of such conflicts and their costs can be seen in locales as diverse as the Western Hemisphere and Southeast Asia (for example, in Guatemala, the Philippines, Colombia, Indonesia, and Nicaragua's maritime and riparian disputes with Honduras and Costa Rica).
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Environment, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Caribbean
7107. Transnational Organized Crime: The Caribbean Context
- Author:
- Anthony T. Bryan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The North-South Center, University of Miami
- Abstract:
- Were it not for the illegitimate character of their actions, transnational criminals could be lauded as pioneers and visionaries in the age of globalization. They have adopted facilitative and exacting measures to remain competitive, fashioned an enviable organizational culture of efficiency and accountability, and maximized the opportunities provided by globalization. They have been able to innovate, expand, and flourish in a furiously changing international scenario and have done so while being relatively cloaked, so that there is an aura of mystery and ambiguity about their operations.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean
7108. Security, integration and identity change
- Author:
- Pernille Rieker
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In this working paper Pernille Rieker attempts to contribute to a better understanding of both how the EU functions as a security system and what kind of impact the integration process has on national security identities. While security has always been the main reason behind the integration process, security and integration have usually been studied separately. Integration specialists have given more attention to economy than to security, and security experts have studied traditional security institutions and overlooked the EU. Rieker attempts to combine these two theoretical traditions by drawing on a combination of recent work on security communities and international socialisation. While the development in the Nordic countries will be used as brief examples in the final part of the paper, a more detailed analysis of these countries' security identities will follow in a forthcoming study.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Government
7109. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
7110. CIAO: International — Organic Pollutants
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Delegates from 122 countries recently concluded an international agreement restricting the use of persistent organic pollutants. The agreement marks an important step towards eliminating the use of highly toxic and long-lived chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment. However, the significance of the accord extends well beyond its subject area: negotiators managed to find compromises on several issues that have bedevilled other international environmental agreements.
- Topic:
- Security and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Russia