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4551. Nuclear Arsenal Games: Size Does Make a Difference

Author:
Carolyn C. James
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
The purpose of this article is to present and establish the significance of the Nuclear Arsenal Game (NAG). The NAG investigates behavior within dyads experiencing a crisis. It assumes that nuclear and quasi-nuclear states act according to the size and potential of their own nuclear force structure and that of their opponent. This paper will argue that the size and potential damage an arsenal poses, set in relation to an enemy state's second strike capability, determines actor preferences within a crisis situation. These preferences include the option of launching a first strike and risking retaliation in kind. The specific objective of this study is to propose a nuclear index for use in empirical studies and offer a game-theoretic model of crisis interaction based on the Theory of Moves (TOM) that encompasses these respective types of nuclear states; and indicates whether preferences and predicted behavior adhere to the assumptions of Classical (or Rational) Deterrence Theory.
Topic:
Security and Nuclear Weapons

4552. Defending Against New Dangers: Arms Control of Weapons of Mass Destruction in A Globalized World

Author:
Major John A. Nagl
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Thomas Schelling and Morton Halperin, in their classic book Strategy and Arms Control, first published in 1961, use the term "arms control" to include "all the forms of military cooperation between potential enemies in the interest of reducing the likelihood of war, its scope and violence if it occurs, and the political and economic costs of being prepared for it." This paper updates their definition of arms control and refocuses it for the post-Cold War world, arguing that arms control in the twenty-first century can remain an important component of U.S. national security policy if defined broadly and applied innovatively. Traditionally an element of nation-to-nation relations and usually conducted bilaterally, in the next century arms control will be an increasingly multilateral affair. Threats to U.S. national security in the next century will increasingly shift from other states to individuals and small groups–sub-and trans-national threats. Defending against these threats in the conventional sense will be difficult, and the focus of arms control will shift to preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to these groups. It is conceivable that both the parties to arms control agreements and provisions for their enforcement will similarly shift to non-state actors, including multinational corporations.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Globalization, and International Cooperation

4553. American Evenhandedness in the Mideast Peace Process: Lessons From Camp David II and the Al-Aqsa Intifada

Author:
Saul Singer
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Ask Israelis or Arabs to characterize the U.S.-Israel relationship and most, particularly on the Arab side, will argue that the picture is one of unwavering support for the Jewish state. Indeed, the outgoing Clinton administration has been widely perceived and labeled as the closest to Israel in the history of the U.S.-Israel relationship. Though the ties between the U.S. and Israel are indeed close, deep, and institutionalized, a closer examination reveals a constant tension between support for Israel and "evenhandedness" between Israel and the Arab world.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

4554. Israel's Major Economic Challenge: Closing the Gap in the Field of Business Economics

Author:
Manfred Gerstenfeld
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Why is it that Israel's per capita GNP still lags substantially behind that of the leading countries of the world? Why is it likely to take decades for the Israeli economy to catch up? This is while the Israeli papers are full of news about very promising high-tech start-ups, and we even hear occasionally about payments of billions of dollars by major foreign firms to acquire Israeli businesses which were founded a few years ago and have at most several hundred employees.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

4555. Factors Impeding the Implementation of Privatization

Author:
Yaakov Ne'eman
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
A number of factors are impeding the implementation of privatization in the Israeli economy. Here I will review those factors based on my own experience, both as someone who has represented investors who purchased government companies through privatization processes, and (from the other side of the fence) in my positions in the Ministry of Finance, when I had an opportunity to observe the governmental process from the inside.
Topic:
Security, Government, Privatization, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

4556. The "Post-Secular" Era

Author:
Eliezer Schweid
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
With the completion of the process of secularization within the Jewish people, it is now clear that secularism is no substitute for religion. Despite the influence of materialism and the unprecedented control of man over nature and over himself, the need for religion has intensified due to continuing moral, social, and spiritual-existential problems and the profound human need for a connection with the sources, and for continuity and permanence. The time has come for the representatives of religious and secularist movements to begin a substantive dialogue that will enable creative life together.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

4557. Interpretations of Jewish Tradition on Democracy, Land, and Peace

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
During the past twenty years, beginning with the Israeli-Egyptian disengagement talks following the 1973 war, the tension between secular and religious perspectives on the Middle East peace process and the "land for peace" formula has grown steadily.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

4558. A New Paradigm For Arab-Israeli Peacemaking: A Comprehensive Regional System For Security and Cooperation

Author:
Abraham Tamir
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, the reliance on separate negotiating tracks in the Arab-Israeli peace process has resulted in a cumulative loss of territories vital for the defense of Israel's very existence, without any corresponding buildup of peace and security for Israel that could last for generations. The military capabilities of Israel's potential adversaries have not diminished, but, in fact, have expanded considerably. The normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world, as stipulated in the peace treaties between Israel, Jordan and Egypt, has not advanced, but, rather, has been held hostage to further Israeli concessions in each of the separate negotiating tracks. Finally, the employment of terrorism and violence by Israel's neighbors became part of the negotiating process with Syria and the PLO.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Egypt

4559. The Emerging Threat of Iraq and the Crisis of Global Security

Author:
Richard Butler
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Ten years ago the UN Security Council imposed upon Iraq some very specific requirements for disarmament. After Iraq had been expelled from Kuwait, the Council decided unanimously that Iraq may not have nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons; or missiles which could fly beyond 150 km. The Security Council's decisions were taken with the full authority of international law.
Topic:
Security, International Law, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arabia

4560. The Role of Islam in Contemporary South East Asian Politics

Author:
Colin Rubenstein
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The political influence of Islam is increasing in South East Asia. While the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Communist bloc have contributed to the decline of communism as a revolutionary political force in the region, religious and ethnic issues are now assuming renewed and increasing significance. Religious divisions based on Islam have exacerbated ethnic differences, and some religiously-oriented groups are engaging in violent and extreme acts that pose a potentially serious long-term threat to stability in the region.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Soviet Union, Arabia, and Southeast Asia