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4141. Turkish Election Preview: Fragmentation of the Center

Author:
Patrick Clawson and Keith Weissman
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The people of Turkey go to the polls on November 3, 2002, amid a great deal of political and economic uncertainty. Possible outcomes range from a coherent pro-European Union (EU) coalition to a dramatic change following an outright electoral victory by a party attractive to Islamist voters. In Turkey, the election is widely portrayed as a referendum on the country's EU accession. Lack of progress on key EU reforms (abolition of the death penalty; allowances for Kurdish-language broadcasting and education) during Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's debilitating illness provoked the July political crisis that has led to the upcoming elections. (Parliament approved these reforms in early August.) Polls indicate that a majority of Turks support EU membership. What divides parties and voters is not the principle of membership – which in theory is the logical outcome of Kemal Ataturk's vision of Turkey's European identity – but rather the issue of how much should be conceded to the EU in order to join.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

4142. Special Policy Forum Report: Battling for the Hearts and Minds in the Middle East: A Critique of U.S. Public Diplomacy, Post-September 11

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In terms of public diplomacy (PD), the U.S. government's record since September 11 is poor. This failing grade is due to a combination of factors: faulty strategic direction from PD policymakers, who have put a premium on a well-intentioned but highly counterproductive effort "to be liked" at the expense of policy advocacy; flawed tactical decisions that have lent an aura of endorsement to some of the most virulent critics (and critiques) of U.S. interests and policy; a lack of speed and creativity in taking advantage of the post-September 11 window to develop and implement new PD projects and initiatives (some of which are actually resurrected old projects that were prematurely terminated); and over-reliance on the powers of broadcasting and a concomitant lack of attention and adequate funding to medium- and long-term aspects of the "hearts and minds" campaign. An assessment of the past year suggests that the heart of the problem lies in Washington, not in the field, where most PD professionals toil with woefully inadequate resources and poor policy direction. Even in the field, however, some are reluctant to press the case for U.S. policy, preferring instead to focus efforts on winning admiration for and sympathy with U.S. values.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

4143. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraqi Regime Change and the Kurdistan Regional Government

Author:
Barham Salih
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Since it became an autonomous region in 1991, Kurdistan has taken advantage of its relative freedom from the tyranny of Baghdad. As a result, Kurdish culture has blossomed, media outlets have boomed, and the number of schools, physicians, and universities in the region has increased dramatically. In comparison to its pre-1991 status, Kurdistan is doing very well. Nevertheless, it has reached a dead end. The Kurdish people realize that in order to ensure further cultural revival, better education, and additional healthcare, a regime change in Baghdad is necessary. At the same time, the Iraqi people look with pride at what has been achieved in Kurdistan and wait for the day in which they can emulate it. They, too, have reached the conclusion that regime change is necessary and that they must accept differences within their society and government, as expressed through the ballot box. Iraqis feel that the day of liberation is near, and they hope that the international community will soon perceive their readiness for change and their willingness to pay the price for such change.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

4144. Special Policy Forum Report: The Middle East: A Turkish Perspective

Author:
Ugur Ziyal
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The November 3, 2002, Turkish parliamentary elections are unlikely to produce any significant change in Turkish foreign policy, upon which there is a national consensus. The statements of all the political parties support Turkey's European orientation, and they also share a similar stance on Iraq. The new government may bring differences in style, but the same guiding principles for policymaking will remain in place.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

4145. WMD Inspections in Iraq: A Trap or an Opportunity?

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President George W. Bush's speech to the UN General Assembly on September 12 is expected to lay out U.S. policy on Iraq. There are strong arguments against raising the issue of arms inspections at all during this speech, and even stronger arguments for proposing a specific deadline for resuming inspections.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

4146. Special Policy Forum Report: The War on Terrorism in Central and Southwest Asia

Author:
Ahmed Rashid
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although al-Qaeda and the Taliban no longer pose a military or political threat in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda cells are regrouping. This threat requires the response of special forces, intelligence, and commandos in order to uncover the terrorist cells and prevent another September 11-style attack. But the main threat posed by terrorism in Central Asia today is the enormous domestic political crisis that has erupted throughout the region.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban

4147. Terrorist Links of the Iraqi Regime

Author:
Ely Karmon
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 28, 2002, a U.S. federal grand jury issued a new indictment against five terrorists from the Fatah Revolutionary Command, also known as the Abu Nidal Organization (ANO), for the 1986 hijacking of Pan Am Flight 73 in Karachi, Pakistan. Based on "aggravating circumstances," prosecutors are now seeking the death penalty for the attack, in which twenty-two people – including two Americans – were killed.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Palestine, Arabia, and Karachi

4148. Sealing the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership through Cooperation in Iraq? A View from Ankara

Author:
Nihat Ali Ozcan and Ersel Aydinli
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ever since talk of American intervention in Iraq began heating up, Turkish policy on cooperation has generally been as follows: keep a close eye on the situation and clearly express reluctance, but if Washington begins to display greater decisiveness, take part in the action. The primary reasons for such a policy are Turkey's immediate proximity to Iraq and its unpleasant memories from the Gulf War.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Ankara

4149. A Roadmap from Crawford to Baghdad

Author:
Raymond Tanter
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
An uninvited guest – Saddam Husayn – may dominate the August 21 military planning session at President George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas. The publicized agenda for this session does not mention Iraq, but then again, neither did the Bush speech at West Point in June 2002. Nevertheless, the doctrine Bush set out in that speech – the doctrine of preventive war – will receive its first test case with Iraq. Bush's argument in June was that the United States must be prepared to take preemptive action against rogue states that acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD), which could be transferred to terrorists if not used directly by such states.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, South Africa, Baghdad, and Arabia

4150. Special Policy Forum Report: Prospects for Palestinian Economic Reform

Author:
Maher Al-Masri
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Palestinian economy has reached a situation like none it has ever experienced before. For several years leading up to 1999, average annual growth within the PA was estimated at 6.5 percent. Unemployment shrank to around 11.5 percent, poverty figures were on the decline, and, for the first time, the Palestinian economy was absorbing more Palestinian laborers than Israel. The economy might have been in an even better situation had trade and border conditions not been under strict Israeli control. Under such control, transported goods often had to be unloaded, checked, and reloaded, on top of several other impediments to the free flow of goods. Despite these impediments, however, the economy was progressing at a significant pace.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia