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3771. Kashmir: The View From New Delhi

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For half a century Kashmir has been the major issue of contention between India and Pakistan. In India's view, the conflict in the state of Jammu and Kashmir constitutes a major internal security threat and is driven by Pakistani interference. No solution is possible, according to the Indian leadership, until Pakistan ceases its support for militants there.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Kashmir, and New Delhi

3772. Kashmir: Learning from the Past

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While its roots predate Indian and Pakistani independence, the Kashmir conflict's current directions can best be understood in the light of the nationalism and state building that followed the end of British colonial rule. Domestic factors, including the imperatives of regime legitimacy and consolidation, remain important influences in both countries.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

3773. Iraq: Building a New Security Structure

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For the foreseeable future, Iraq's security will be in the hands of Coalition forces. As a result, how the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) chose to deal with the country's former military and how it is now going about starting up a new army may not have immediate security implications. But both courses have decisive political implications, and both appear, at a minimum, to have been poorly thought out and recklessly implemented. They heighten the risk that the Sunni population will be further alienated, that the military will be perceived as a prolongation of, rather than a substitute for, the occupation and that, far from helping to forge a new collective national identity, it will become an arena for renewed internal political, sectarian and ethnic conflict. A significant course correction is required in order to lay the foundations for a stable, and stabilising, indigenous security structure.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty, and Population
Political Geography:
Iraq and Arabia

3774. Southern Serbia's Fragile Peace

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Albanian-majority Presevo Valley in southern Serbia is one of the few conflict resolution success stories in the former Yugoslavia. Yet tensions linger, and a series of violent incidents in August and September 2003 demonstrated that the peace can still unravel. Serbia's stalled reform process is preventing the political and economic changes that are needed to move forward on many critical issues in the area, and there is a general sense among local Albanians that peace has not delivered what it promised: an end to tensions with Serb security forces and prosperity.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

3775. Sudan: Towards an Incomplete Peace

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the signing on 25 September 2003 of a framework agreement on security arrangements, the Sudanese government and the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA) are closer to peace than at any time in the past twenty years. However, considerable hurdles remain before any final deal is signed, and a separate, intensifying war in the west already threatens to undermine it. As the parties press forward with the last phases of negotiation, the international community's engagement should intensify in support of the final deal, in preparation for helping with implementation if successful, and in ensuring coordination between the main peace process and the conflict in the west.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
South Asia, Sudan, and North Africa

3776. Colombia: President Uribe's Democratic Security Policy

Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
More than any of his predecessors, President Alvaro Uribe has made combating the insurgents the overriding priority and defining objective of the Colombian government. Through modest achievements on the ground a sense of public security has begun to be re-established. However, Uribe's "Democratic Security Policy" (DSP), the long-term strategy promised to lend coherence to the security effort, has been stalled for nearly a year by political infighting and fundamental arguments over how best to bring the 40-year conflict to a close. Without some serious modifications, it is doubtful that it will achieve its goal.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

3777. CÔTE D'IVOIRE: "The War Is Not Yet Over"

Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
"The war is not yet over", an ICG mission to Côte d'Ivoire repeatedly heard in November 2003. There are ominous signs that the Côte d'Ivoire peace process initiated in January 2003 has broken down. If the country goes back to war, it could well take all West Africa with it, endangering even recent progress in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The UN Security Council needs to take a leading role in the peace process, initially by upgrading its current presence to a full peacekeeping mission. This could include subsuming some 1,400 West African troops under the umbrella of an expanded operation. The UN should also step up cooperation between its ongoing peace operation in Liberia and its Ivorian peace mission, MINUCI.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, Liberia, and Sierra Leone

3778. Iran: Discontent and Disarray

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Shirin Ebadi, a courageous human rights lawyer, has focused renewed attention on the deep divisions and tensions within Iran. How these work out, and how Iran defines its role in the world, will have a critical impact on a range of wider security issues, from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the future of nuclear non-proliferation.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, Development, Economics, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, and Arabia

3779. Macedonia: No Room for Complacency

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Recent events require that policymakers revise substantially the conventional assessment that Macedonia is the foremost political “success story” of the Balkans. In fact, it is an underperforming post-conflict country still very much at risk, unable to tackle – operationally or politically -- its security challenges without upsetting an uncertain ethnic balance. Clear-eyed analysis of the dynamics driving unrest, from criminality and weak policing to an equally weak economy and corruption, is needed if a country that narrowly avoided war in 2001 is to secure long-term stability. Specifically, Macedonia cannot yet safely do without the presence of an international security force.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Macedonia

3780. Colombia: Negotiating with the Paramilitaries

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Eighteen months after the rupture of peace talks between its predecessor and the main insurgent group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the Uribe administration has entered upon a high risk-high gain negotiating process with the main paramilitary group, the United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC), that will test its skill and its good faith.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America