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3741. Mexico Alert: The Impact of the War in Iraq on Canada, the Caribbean, and Latin America

Author:
Phillip McLean
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Once again events elsewhere have driven news of Canada, the Caribbean and Latin America off the front pages— even from newspapers in the region. Lack of attention may be the least of those countries' concerns about the war. The more serious consequence is likely to be that the war will accentuate the hemisphere's already evident problems. To the degree that the war slows the growth of world trade, the region's near-term economic prospects will suffer, and global uncertainties will dim the promise of more open and dynamic markets.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Canada, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

3742. Mexico Alert: The Impact of the War in Iraq on Mexico

Author:
Armand Peschard-Sverdrup
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
When looking at the ramifications of the war in Iraq on the Western Hemisphere, it is clear that the conflict will have the greatest impact on the two nations with which the United States shares borders—Mexico and Canada. From a national security standpoint, these nations' immediate proximity to the United States automatically heightens the threat to their own national security, particularly because we seem to have entered an era in which the use of weapons of mass destruction—be they nuclear, chemical, or biological—poses a viable threat. From a U.S. homeland security standpoint, the shared border transforms both of our friendly neighbors into possible platforms from which rogue elements could stage attacks or enter the United States to threaten our homeland.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Canada, Latin America, North America, and Mexico

3743. Argentina Alert: Polls Apart

Author:
Carlos M. Regúnaga
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The race for the Argentine presidency is now in the next to last lap. The first ballot will be cast April 27, but for the first time in history it looks as if a second ballot will be required. If it is, it will take place on May 18. At this juncture, public opinion and pundits' predictions are poles apart. But before analyzing them, it might be useful to remember the electoral system now in effect.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Argentina, South America, and Latin America

3744. Mexico Alert: The Vote That Wasn't

Author:
Luis Rubio
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Mexico's President Vicente Fox chose a rather awkward time to take a stand supporting a multilateralist approach in foreign policy. Even though a multilateral approach matches neatly—almost naturally—with the country's history, taking such a visible stand after the events of September 11 entailed huge risks that nobody in Fox's cabinet could ignore, even if, in retrospect, few truly understood what the actual risks were. Yet, oblivious to that fact, the government pushed ahead. Even after President George W. Bush had decided not to pursue a vote in the UN Security Council on a follow-up resolution that would have de facto authorized the use of force in Iraq, the Mexican government found it necessary to state that it would have voted “no.” The critical question is less whether this constitutes an approach to foreign policy that is new for Mexico than whether the administration truly understands the implications of its newfound ways.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

3745. Mexico Alert: NAFTA And Mexico's Agriculture

Author:
Sergio Sarmiento
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
For a long time, it seemed impossible for any issue to forge an alliance between the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)—the party that ruled Mexico from 1929 to 2000—and the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). This issue, however, has clearly emerged now with the attempt to force President Vicente Fox, a member of the conservative National Action Party (PAN), to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in order to offer special protection to Mexico's agriculture.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America and North America

3746. Mexico Alert: Mexico State Election

Author:
Armand Peschard-Sverdrup and George W. Grayson
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
On March 9, 2003, the citizens of Mexico state (Edomex) will elect 124 municipal government officials and 75 members of the state legislature. Although local contests, these elections have attracted national attention for several reasons. First, with 13 million inhabitants Edomex is the most populous of Mexico 31 states–with approximately 4.5 million more citizens than Mexico City. Second, Mexico state also boasts more than 8 million voters, the most of any state and 12.55 percent of the nationwide total. Third, Mexico state is a microcosm of the country–with (1) a vibrant manufacturing sector, (2) one-third of its income arising from agriculture, (3) a small indigenous population, (4) a plethora of middle-class residents who work for the government, own small businesses, or practice professions such as medicine, dentistry, accounting, and teaching, and (5) poor people who eke out a living in Chalco, Texcoco, and other sprawling slums contiguous to Mexico City. Fourth, Edomex is an arena of intense political activism, involving the country's three major parties: the once-hegemonic Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the center-right National Action Party (PAN), and the nationalist-left Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). In addition, the Mexican Green Ecological Party (PVEM) boasts its largest support base in the state, while several new or small parties will also compete in the upcoming election. These include the centrist Convergencia, the leftist Workers' Party (PT), the right-wing Social Alliance (PAS), the conservative Party of the Nationalist Society (PSN), the reform-oriented México Posible (MP), the Mexican Liberal Party (PLM), Citizens' Force (FC), and the Citizens' Parliament (PC). Fifth, the importance of the state means that any major Edomex politician who distinguishes himself will wind up on the short list of contenders for the presidency in 2006. Finally, the outcome of the Mexico state balloting will provide an insight into the relative strength of contending parties as they prepare for the July 6 election of 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies and six governors (Campeche, Colima, Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, and Sonora).
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

3747. Understanding Balkan Organized Crime: A Key to Success in Iraq?

Author:
Mark Edmond Clark
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
In your estimation, what would it take to get organized crime in Southeastern Europe under control? Mark Clark: A successful fight against organized crime typically would require the successful change of culture in the society in which it exists. Organized crime groups maintain their control by creating and maintaining an environment of fear within the societies that they operate. Practically as a prerequisite, they must possess the capacity to kill and commit other acts of extreme violence against friend and foe alike. To that extent, history would show that few in any society have had the strength to stand up against them. However, organized crime also survives often because the society in which it exists, accepts it. In the Balkans, peoples of the different ethnic groups have typically lived in rural communities, based on agrarian economies, and for the most part have been isolated and provincial, with little interest in making dramatic transformations regarding the place of organized crime. In the cosmopolitan cities and areas of almost each state, organized crime has also developed real influence. Perhaps a cause for that might be the successive migrations to the cities and towns, thereby assuring that there would always be segments of the population that accepted organized crime and would welcome the goods and services criminal groups could provide.
Topic:
Security, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:
Middle East

3748. Fireball on the Water: Naval Force Protection-Projection, Coast Guarding, Customs Border Security Multilateral Cooperation in Rolling Back the Global Waves of Terror...from the Sea

Author:
Irvin Lim
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Maritime Terrorist Threat is a hydra that continues to pose a clear and present danger to world commerce and, ultimately to the very well being of nations. The global stream of explosive carnage with truck bombs in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) on 13 May 2003, gas station bombing attacks across Pakistan on 15 May 2003, truck bombs in Casablanca (Morocco) on 16 May 2003 and in Jakarta (Indonesia) on 5 August 2003 serve as gruesome reminders that the war on global terrorism is far from over. In fact the war is getting tougher. We have not yet seen 'the turning of the tide'. A new wave of attacks is imminent around the world. More than on land and in the air, the vast maritime domain makes policing a Herculean enterprise, and it continues to be vulnerable to potentially devastating terrorist attacks. The paper argues that in order to effectively deal with the common threat of maritime terrorism, the world's naval forces and their respective home-front elements such as coastguard, costums, and port authorities must work hand-in-glove with the shipping community to enhance multi-agency integration and to forge great multilateral cooperation in order to protect vulnerable hulls and safeguard homelands at ports and at sea. It stands to reason then that the protracted, if not interminable fight against maritime terrorism remains to be urgently joined and decidedly joint in effort.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jakarta, and Riyadh

3749. American Unilaterism, Foreign Economic Policy and the 'Securitisation' of Globalisation

Author:
Richard Higgott
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper traces the 'securitisation' of US foreign economic policy since the advent of the Bush administration. It does so with reference to US economic policy in East Asia. It argues that in the context of US economic and military preponderance in the world order, the US has been able to resist the temptation to link foreign economic and security policy. While there was evidence of the securitisation of economic globalisation in US policy from day one of the Bush administration, it was 9/11 that firmed up this trend. For the key members of the Bush foreign policy team, globalisation is now seen not simply in neo-liberal economic terms, but also through the lenses of the national security agenda of the United States. Economic globalisation is now not only a benefit, but also a 'security problem'. 9/11 offered the opportunity for what we might call the 'unilateralist-idealists', in the Bush administration, to set in train their project for a post-sovereign approach to American foreign policy. The paper identifies some intellectual contradictions in current US strategy and raises a series of question about the implication for world order of the consolidation of the trends identified in the paper.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States, America, and East Asia

3750. In Search of 'Suitable Positions' in the Asia Pacific: Negotiating the U.S. China Relationship and Regional Security

Author:
Evelyn Goh
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that the crucial determinant of Asia-Pacific security is whether the US and China can negotiate their relationship and their relative positions and roles in such a way as to produce sustainable regional stability. It examines three alternative models to assess some of the possible processes and outcomes in negotiating Sino-American coexistence. (I) Power transition, in which there is a significant structural shift in the regional system as a rising China challenges US dominance, with a range of possible outcomes; (II) The maintenance of the status quo of US strategic dominance over the region, which China does not challenge concentrating instead on inernal consolidation and on developing its economic power; and (III) Negotiated change, by which the two powers coordinate to manage a more fundamental structural transformation, either through froming a concert (duet) of power, or by moving towards a regional security community. The paper suggests that Model II is likely for the short-to medium-term; Model III for the medium term; and Model I for the long term.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Asia