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3601. Sustaining Global Democratization: Nation Building and Intervention

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
This panel on global democratization is part of an ongoing ISD effort to focus policy debate on a topic of growing importance. The first in this series of panel discussions was held shortly after 9/11, and was entitled "Sustaining Global Democratization: a priority now more than ever". That title could serve well for this panel also, as the connected issues of democratization and nation building are more timely and urgent than ever. In the new National Security Strategy, the President commits the U.S. to "extend the benefits of freedom across the globe." Democratization is no longer on the fringes of the policy debate. Uppermost on the agenda of policy maker and analyst are the open questions relating to Afghanistan, Iraq and the West-Bank/Gaza. How our democracy promoting goals are to be pursued and achieved in these and other cases is far from clear. Panelists today and at subsequent forums will bring the benefit of their wide experience to these issues. The problems that we discuss are global in nature. Today's panel will for the most part focus on the Middle East. Other regions will be the focus of attention at subsequent forums.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Gaza

3602. Reputation and War: Explaining the Intractability of Territorial Conflict

Author:
Barbara F. Walter
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Between 1940 and 1996, governments were seventy percent less likely to negotiate with rebels seeking independence or greater territorial autonomy than with rebels seeking any other goal. Current theories suggest that this is due to the economic, strategic, or psychological value of territory under dispute. I argue that a government's decision to negotiate has more to do with the signal the government wishes to send to future challengers than with any specific characteristics of the land in question. If the government believes it could face multiple separatist challenges in the future, it will invest in a reputation for toughness now rather than face additional challengers down the road. If the government knows it will face such a challenge only once, there is less reason to invest in a reputation and negotiation is likely to result. An analysis of all self-determination movements between 1940 and 2000 demonstrates that governments of multiethnic states are far less likely to negotiate than are governments that preside over more homogenous populations.
Topic:
Security, Peace Studies, and Politics

3603. Democracy and Military Intervention: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
Daniel Byman
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
The Bush administration entered office skeptical of using the U.S. military to build democracy. Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's National Security Advisor, wrote before the election that: "The President must remember that the military is a special instrument. It is lethal, and it is meant to be. It is not a civilian police force. It is not a political referee. And it is most certainly not designed to build a civilian society." Despite this skepticism, policing, building a civilian society, and other tasks inherent to democratization were quickly thrust upon the Bush administration. Even before the fall of the Taliban, the United States and its allies began trying to shape a new government to take power in Kabul. And today, as the United States and its allies move to topple Saddam's regime, they are grappling with how to create a stable and democratic future for Iraq.
Topic:
Security, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Taliban, and Kabul

3604. Making multilateralism matter: the EU Security Strategy

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Catriona Mace, and Gerrard Quille
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The European Security Strategy (ESS) adopted as the basis for an EU Strategic Concept at the Thessaloniki European Council on 20 June is intellectually coherent, holistic and sufficiently flexible to enable the EU to adapt effectively to the changing security environment. It directly addresses the US priorities of international terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD), proposing concrete steps within a broad framework. Moreover, should member states muster sufficient will to agree a Security Concept in December 2003, this will represent an important moment in the evolution of the EU-US strategic partnership. It remains to be seen, however, whether this will deliver effective multilateralism, an institutionalised and equitable dialogue with the US and the capabilities required for decisive and rapid responses to international crises.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

3605. Building bridges? What role for the EU in post-war Iraq?

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Catriona Mace, and Jocelyn Mawdsley
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
Now that the war in Iraq is officially over, the EU must consider what role it can play in post-war reconstruction. Thus far the Union has reacted swiftly to the humanitarian crisis but not yet defined the part that it will play in the stabilisation and institution building processes. With the US announcement that an interim administration should be in place in Iraq by June the pressure is on to define the EU's role in the reconstruction of Iraq and build bridges within its own CFSP.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Iraq and Europe

3606. The EU Reunited? Implications of the Iraq Crisis for CFSP

Author:
Catriona Gourlay, Catriona Mace, Gerrard Quille, and Malin Tappert
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The extraordinary meeting of the European Council held in Brussels on 17th February was as much about the crisis in the EU as it was about the crisis in Iraq. The summit brought a welcome restatement of common principles after weeks of disunity among member states. However, while it succeeded in highlighting the commonalities in member state positions: multi-lateralism, support for the UN, and for a regional solution in the Middle East, there was no indication that divisions over the necessity and timing of the use of force had been bridged.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

3607. The European Union: Tackline the threat from Weapons of Mass Destruction

Author:
Gerrard Quille and Stephen Pullinger
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
This is the first in a series of Discussion and Policy Papers - published by ISIS Europe and Saferworld - that will trace, analyse and contribute towards developments in the European Union's emerging strategy against the proliferation of weapons and materials of mass destruction (WMD). This first paper has been written for circulation at the EU's Inter - Parliamentary Conference on the 'Non - proliferation and Disarmament Co - operation Initiative' within the framework of the G8 'Global Partnership against Materials and Weapons of Mass Destruction', launched in Kananaskis, Canada in July 2002. The authors welcome the initiative by the European Commission to promote Parliamentary interest in this important area of non - proliferation.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe and Canada

3608. Building an Integrated and Accountable European Security and Defence Policy

Author:
Catriona Gourlay and Catriona Mace
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
In this first conference session speakers addressed the ways in which structural reforms could improve the integration and accountability of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The draft constitution then under discussion at the European Convention was evaluated and the session aimed to identify further reforms that could be enacted in order to improve the integration and accountability of EU action in foreign affairs, security and defence.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

3609. Saudi Arabia's Dubious Denials of Involvement in International Terrorism

Author:
Dore Gold
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia's past involvement in international terrorism is indisputable. While the Bush administration decided to redact 28 sensitive pages of the Joint Intelligence Report of the U.S. Congress, nonetheless, Saudi involvement in terrorist financing can be documented through materials captured by Israel in Palestinian headquarters in 2002-3. In light of this evidence, Saudi denials about terrorist funding don't hold water. Israel retrieved a document of the International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO) which detailed the allocation of $280,000 to 14 Hamas charities. IIRO and other suspected global Saudi charities are not NGOs, since their boards of directors are headed by Saudi cabinet members. Prince Salman, a full brother of King Fahd, controls IIRO distributions "with an iron hand," according to former CIA operative Robert Baer. Mahmoud Abbas, in fact, complained, in a handwritten December 2000 letter to Salman, about Saudi funding of Hamas. Defense Minister Prince Sultan has been cited as a major IIRO contributor. It was hoped, after the May 12 triple bombing attack in Riyadh, that Saudi Arabia might halt its support for terrorism. Internally, the Saudi security forces moved against al-Qaeda cells all over the kingdom. But externally, the Saudis were still engaged in terrorist financing, underwriting 60-70 percent of the Hamas budget, in violation of their "roadmap" commitments to President Bush. Additionally, the Saudis back the civilian infrastructure of Hamas with extremist textbooks glorifying jihad and martyrdom that are used by schools and Islamic societies throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Ideological infiltration of Palestinian society by the Saudis in this way is reminiscent of their involvement in the madrassa system of Pakistan during the 1980s, that gave birth to the Taliban and other pro bin-Laden groups.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

3610. Ten Years Since Oslo: The PLO's "People's War" Strategy and Israel's Inadequate Response

Author:
Joel S. Fishman
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Israel and the PLO have been confronting each other according to completely different paradigms of conflict. Since the late 1960s, the PLO has adopted a "people's war" paradigm that continued to guide its policies even after the signing of the 1993 Oslo Accords. According to the "people's war" paradigm, borrowed from Marxist-Leninist traditions in China and Vietnam, conflict is waged on both the political and military levels, but for militarily weaker guerilla groups, political conflict is more important, especially the delegitimization of an adversary and the division of his society. Prior to 1993, Israel largely responded to the PLO militarily as a terrorist threat, but not politically. After 1993, with the PLO "renouncing" terrorism, Israel embraced the PLO leadership and ignored the signs that the PLO was still engaged in political warfare against it (incitement, reluctance to alter PLO Covenant, UN votes, textbooks). Israeli governments later complained about these symptoms of political warfare, without identifying the cause. Established Israeli traditions place undue emphasis on the narrowly-framed military approach to the detriment of the political, which leaves Israel particularly vulnerable to broad-based strategic deception. Israeli policy-makers must reexamine the assumptions upon which they have based political and military policy over the last decade.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Vietnam, Arab Countries, and Oslo