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1. Financialisation Reinforced: The Enduring Legacy of the Covid Pandemic

Author:
Photis Lysandrou and Taimaz Ranjbaran
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of the covid pandemic on the financialisation process, here viewed as the growing domination of the world’s financial securities markets over the world’s material output base. Two major arguments are advanced. The first is that the pandemic has reinforced the functionality of financial market scale, which is that its continuing growth signifies nothing other than that governments and corporations on the one hand and pension funds and other asset managers on the other are colonising the future to cope with the rising financial pressures of the present. The second argument is that the pandemic has also accentuated one of the more notable dysfunctional aspects of the continuing growth of financial market scale, which is the reinforcement of a core-periphery divide between the advanced and emerging market economies that occupy the global financial system. The paper concludes with some policy implications of the analysis that includes the call for a global wealth tax.
Topic:
Economics, COVID-19, Securities, and Financialisation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. The Spatialisation of the Future

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This paper argues that the growth of the securities markets signifies the spatialisation of the future. The possibility of this spatialisation is explained in terms of Marx’s commodity principle: it is because that principle has been expanded to encompass financial securities that the future now exists as a socially constructed space that parallels physical space. The necessity for this spatialisation is explained in terms of the financial pressures on the world’s major public and private organisations: security-issuing governments and corporations need to use the future to escape financing constraints in the present just as security-buying institutional investors need to use the future to meet financial commitments in the present. As the precondition for the continuing growth in scale of the securities markets is compliance with the rules of commodity exchange, and as the ‘liberal market economy’ variety of capitalism is the only one in which this condition is unreservedly met, it follows that a key by-product of the increasing need to colonise the future to take the overspill of the pressures of the present will be an increasing convergence on this variety of capitalism.
Topic:
Capitalism, Economy, Commodities, Securities, Karl Marx, and Spatiality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. "Fool Me Once . . . " Did U.S. Investors Play it Safer in the European Debt Crisis?

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut, Fang Cai, and Nyssa Kim
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines U.S. investors' portfolio investment patterns since the global financial crisis, particularly since the European debt crisis that began in late 2009. The global financial crisis during 2007-2009 was accompanied by an increase in U.S. investors' home bias. U.S. investors experienced significant valuation losses and pulled back notably from their foreign investment, especially from foreign debt. In contrast, while they have also incurred sizable losses on cross-border investment during the European debt crisis, U.S. investors so far have not shown any increase in home bias, and they have not even pulled back from their long-term investments in Europe. Holdings data show that U.S. investors have continued to invest in European securities, particularly in government debt, but have made little new investment in the financial sector. This continued interest in European securities could owe to the fact that most of U.S. holdings of European debt have been concentrated in dollar-denominated debt issued by core euro area countries and the United Kingdom, which are deemed relatively safe. Changes in the composition of holdings over the past couple years suggest that U.S. investors have behaved in a way that reflects their diversity and differing objectives: while investors reached for higher yields in government debt, there also appears to be some shift toward safer investment in the financial sector.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Investment, Securities, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

4. Portfolio Diversification and the Cross-Sectional Distribution of Foreign Investment

Author:
Alexandra Tabova
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In this paper I explore the role of portfolio diversification in explaining the distribution of foreign investment across countries. I capture the portfolio diversification motive by a measure of country-specific riskiness, "covariance risk", which I construct as how countries' growth rates covary with the stochastic discount factor of a representative international investor. My key new empirical finding is a strong and significant correlation between this new measure of country riskiness and foreign investment allocations. Less risky countries, i.e. countries whose growth rates are more highly correlated with the investor's stochastic discount factor, receive larger investment shares than more risky countries. I interpret this result as evidence that investors do take into account diversification opportunities, not only for portfolio investment decisions, but also for foreign direct investment decisions. My empirical results confirm the theoretical predictions of standard portfolio allocation models.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Investment, Risk, Fiscal Policy, Securities, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. International Capital Flows and the Returns to Safe Assets in the United States, 2003-2007

Author:
Ben S. Bernanke, Carol C. Bertaut, Laurie Pounder DeMarco, and Steve Kamin
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A broad array of domestic institutional factors--including problems with the originate-to-distribute model for mortgage loans, deteriorating lending standards, deficiencies in risk management, conflicting incentives for the GSEs, and shortcomings of supervision and regulation--were the primary sources of the U.S. housing boom and bust and the associated financial crisis. In addition, the extended rise in U.S. house prices was likely also supported by long-term interest rates (including mortgage rates) that were surprisingly low, given the level of short-term rates and other macro fundamentals--a development that Greenspan (2005) dubbed a "conundrum." The "global saving glut" (GSG) hypothesis (Bernanke, 2005 and 2007) argues that increased capital inflows to the United States from countries in which desired saving greatly exceeded desired investment--including Asian emerging markets and commodity exporters--were an important reason that U.S. longer-term interest rates during this period were lower than expected. This essay investigates further the effects of capital inflows to the United States on U.S. longer-term interest rates; however, we look beyond the overall size of the inflows emphasized by the GSG hypothesis to examine the implications for U.S. yields of the portfolio preferences of foreign creditors. We present evidence that, in the spirit of Caballero and Krishnamurthy (2009), foreign investors during this period tended to prefer U.S. assets perceived to be safe. In particular, foreign investors--especially the GSG countries--acquired a substantial share of the new issues of U.S. Treasuries, Agency debt, and Agency-sponsored mortgage-backed securities. The downward pressure on yields exerted by inflows from the GSG countries was reinforced by the portfolio preferences of other foreign investors. We focus particularly on the case of Europe: Although Europe did not run a large current account surplus as did the GSG countries, we show that it leveraged up its international balance sheet, issuing external liabilities to finance substantial purchases of apparently safe U.S. "private-label" mortgage-backed securities and other fixed-income products. The strong demand for apparently safe assets by both domestic and foreign investors not only served to reduce yields on these assets but also provided additional incentives for the U.S. financial services industry to develop structured investment products that "transformed" risky loans into highly-rated securities. Our findings do not challenge the view that domestic factors, including those listed above, were the primary sources of the housing boom and bust in the United States. However, examining how changes in the pattern of international capital flows affected yields on U.S. assets helps provide a deeper understanding of the origins and dynamics of the crisis.
Topic:
Finance, Capital Flows, Securities, and Capital
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

6. ABS Inflows to the United States and the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut, Laurie Pounder DeMarco, Steve Kamin, and Ralph Tryon
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The "global saving glut" (GSG) hypothesis argues that the surge in capital inflows from emerging market economies to the United States led to significant declines in long-term interest rates in the United States and other industrial economies. In turn, these lower interest rates, when combined with both innovations and deficiencies of the U.S. credit market, are believed to have contributed to the U.S. housing bubble and to the buildup in financial vulnerabilities that led to the financial crisis. Because the GSG countries for the most part restricted their U.S. purchases to Treasuries and Agency debt, their provision of savings to ultimately risky subprime mortgage borrowers was necessarily indirect, pushing down yields on safe assets and increasing the appetite for alternative investments on the part of other investors. We present a more complete picture of how capital flows contributed to the crisis, drawing attention to the sizable inflows from European investors into U.S. private-label asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage-backed securities and other structured investment products. By adding to domestic demand for private-label ABS, substantial foreign acquisitions of these securities contributed to the decline in their spreads over Treasury yields. Through a combination of empirical estimation and model simulation, we verify that both GSG inflows into Treasuries and Agencies, as well as European acquisitions of ABS, played a role in contributing to downward pressures on U.S. interest rates.
Topic:
Finance, Interest Rates, Housing, Securities, and Capital
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

7. Assessing the Potential for Further Foreign Demand for U.S. Assets: Has Financing U.S. Current Account Deficits Made Foreign Investors Overweight in U.S. Securities?

Author:
Carol C. Bertaut
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Since 2001, foreign investors have acquired roughly $5 trillion in U.S. securities – more than doubling their holdings of U.S. equities and bonds – as both official and private inflows have financed record U.S. current account deficits. Although the rapid growth of foreign holdings of U.S. securities raises concerns that foreign investors may have become too heavily weighted in U.S. assets, foreign investors have not in fact materially changed the relative allocations between U.S. and other foreign securities in their portfolios in recent years. Based on data from the most recent comprehensive surveys of foreign portfolio investment, the 2006 IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investment Surveys (CPIS), most foreign investors remain relatively more underweight in both U.S. equities and bonds than they do in foreign securities in general. Although the underweight position suggests that there remains potential for foreign investors to continue to acquire U.S. securities, econometric evidence indicates that the underweight position itself reflects a preference by foreign investors for securities of countries with which they have strong economic or cultural ties, consistent with recent research that suggests “location” or “information” preferences in both domestic and international portfolios. As securities markets abroad continue to deepen, such factors are likely to continue to attract investment from “nearby” markets, especially from European investors.
Topic:
Investment, Securities, Bonds, and International Portfolios
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and North America