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271. Generative AI and the Future of Work: A Reappraisal

Author:
Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Like now, the early 2010s was a time of excitement about new technological wonders. The world had bounced back from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and, despite residual financial malaise, America seemed to be on the cusp of a productivity boom.1 Artificial intelligence (AI), long regarded as an academic backwater, was finally bearing fruit. In 2011, a question-answering computer system known as IBM Watson beat the world champion in Jeopardy. Machine learning—a subfield of AI—further expanded the possibilities of what computers could do; in 2012, a machine learning team from Google trained a deep neural network that, without ever being told what a cat was, proved independently capable of recognizing cat videos on YouTube. Gone were the days when a computer programmer needed to write explicit rules to guide the actions of a machine in every contingency. Computers could now infer rules by tapping into the data trails left behind by increasing numbers of humans online. This phenomenon was most clearly visible with the development of autonomous vehicles. No programmer could be expected to foresee every situation a human driver might encounter in city traffic, and even less to capture these in a sequence of “If-Then-Do” commands. Instead, autonomous vehicles made progress by collecting vast amounts of data on drivers’ actions in city traffic to predict what humans would in any given situation.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Future of Work, and Generative Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

272. The Strategic Nature of the Digital Age

Author:
Michael Fischerkeller and Richard Harknett
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Cyber operations advance intelligence goals through their capacity to surveil populations at home and abroad, as well as propagate new forms of informa- tional manipulation and communication. But what if those outcomes are only a subset of cyberspace’s potential impact on the conduct of international relations? Political scientist James Rosenau posits that the role of academic theory is fun- damentally to ask and posit answers to the “what ifs” of complex phenomena.1 In our book, Cyber Persistence Theory: Redefining National Security in Cyberspace, co-authored with Dr. Emily Goldman, we examine state activ- ity in and through cyberspace and conclude that it is strategic in potential and intent. There are two fundamental reasons why this focus on strategic potential is important. First, if the emerging field of cyber security studies is to mature, it needs to illuminate the underlying patterns emerging in modern international relations. Second, state policies should reinforce an overall stabilizing dynamic across international security relations as they increase their use of cyber and cyber-enabled operations and campaigns. In both cases, study and policy must be based on an accurate understanding of the logic of cyberspace security. States could focus on a narrow subset of cyber activity, such as traditionally framed propaganda, surveillance, and intelligence, in isolation of its capacity to shift power. However, such exclusion of the numerous other ways cyberspace can be leveraged effectively advances neither the academic nor policy objective.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

273. Table for Twelve: Dinner with the Foremost Experts on AI

Author:
Mike Sexton, Fredrick Hernandez, and Jim Kessler
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
We’re all trying to get smarter on AI. Well, suppose you could have dinner with some of the smartest experts on AI and get their take? Pull up a chair. We chose 11 AI thinkers—AI creators, defense experts, economists, academicians, tech capitalists, and sociologists—and condensed their viewpoints into 500 words with a link to go deeper. Some are true AI believers, others are deep skeptics, many fall in between. Why 11? So you could be number 12. Would you like red or white with your bots? This is the first product in a multi-year series to help educate decision-makers on the policy choices confronting Congress and the Administration on next generation Artificial Intelligence. Each summary represents our interpretation of their outlook based on published interviews and writings and have not been approved or edited by each individual.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

274. Technological Sophistication Made in China? – New Insights from Germany’s Evaluation of COVID-19 Antigen Rapid Tests

Author:
Silas Dreier and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
By analyzing a unique dataset from Germany’s evaluation of COVID-19 antigen rapid tests, we show that Chinese firms can excel under today’s global competition and produce tests at quality levels higher than China’s income level would suggest. We find these achievements are positively associated with China’s rising innovation capability and robust industrial base. Further strengthening China’s innovation and industrial base to support Chinese firms’ future accomplishments is what the Chinese government clearly aims for. This would intensify the challenges facing Western economies that strive for technological sovereignty and eagerly seek to de-risk their economic relations with China.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Innovation, Trade, COVID-19, Production, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Germany

275. A shared EU-US economic agenda for the world: Engagement as an imperative

Author:
Lauri Tähtinen
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
It is time for the European Union and the United States to build a shared, positive economic agenda towards third countries. Such an agenda would build upon the bilateral relationship but not focus on it. It would still be shared, even if the parties may have distinct reasons for supporting different aspects of it. The first elements of a shared economic agenda are evident in the EU-US Trade and Technology Council projects for Jamaica and Kenya. However, the political window for further alignment between the US and the EU, as well as for European trade deals, may be closing in 2024. Future initiatives should take into account major economies such as Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia. The entry into force of the EU-Mercosur agreement should be a high-level priority for both Washington and Brussels. The current state of the EU-US relationship is characterized by a divergence in technology, industrial policy, and environmental policy. To move onto a path of convergence, Washington must reassess its exaggerated fears regarding the regulatory power of the EU, and use the spread of European standards as a means towards shared ends.
Topic:
Environment, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Latin America, and United States of America

276. Technology needs for climate adaptation in agriculture: Evidence from Africa

Author:
African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The adoption of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) plays a pivotal role in driving innovation to combat climate change in African agriculture. This policy brief underscores key factors influencing ICT adoption in agriculture, with a special emphasis on affordability, cost-effectiveness, and clear economic benefits. Access to digital farming solutions and ICT tools is rapidly spreading across the continent, particularly in providing farmers with essential weather information, market access, and improved agricultural practices. Despite these promising developments, significant challenges such as high data costs, limited digital literacy, and gender-based digital disparities must be addressed to ensure inclusivity in technological access. Furthermore, the knowledge product demonstrates the critical role of climate-resilient crop varieties and adaptable livestock breeds in agricultural technological innovation. This includes drought-tolerant, heat-resistant, and diseaseresistant crops, as well as livestock breeds suited for changing environmental conditions. Water management and irrigation technologies, such as precision agriculture and data analytics, are critical to optimizing resource use, increasing efficiency, and empowering women in agriculture. This document emphasizes the importance of ICT in closing technological gaps, improving weather monitoring, promoting resilient crops and livestock, and fostering sustainable practices across African agricultural systems. A gender-responsive approach to technological innovation is essential for ensuring equitable participation and closing existing gaps. Finally, the knowledge product emphasizes the importance of policy support, capacity development, and public-private partnerships in effectively integrating ICT into agriculture. By harnessing the potential of ICT while prioritizing gender-responsive solutions, Africa can successfully adapt to climate change, empower its farming communities, foster sustainable development, unlock economic opportunities, provide access to vital information, and scale up adaptation efforts. Ultimately, technological innovation through ICT is critical to building climate resilience and securing a prosperous and sustainable future for Africa.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Science and Technology, Communications, Innovation, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Africa

277. The Trilateral Security Dialogue, Defence Cooperation, & Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Aiden Warren, Charles T. Hunt, and Matthew Warren
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This report investigates the prospects and difficulties of enhancing AI cooperation among Australia, Japan, and the United States under the Trilateral Security Dialogue (TSD) framework. Significant overlap in national AI objectives and vision, along with shared understandings of global AI competition and the security implications of AI development, exist among the TSD members. Insights from consultations and workshops with various stakeholders in Washington D.C. reveal a strong appetite for further cross-border collaboration in AI. However, several challenges persist across common standards, interoperability, trust, awareness, export control regimes, and data governance. The report, the first in a series, outlines key areas for building a robust and resilient AI partnership that can address the security challenges and opportunities in the Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:
International Relations, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

278. Finding Firmer Ground: The Role of High Technology in U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Sara Hsu, Ja Ian Chong, Rorry Daniels, Hargisl Shirley Martey, and John Lee
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The latest installment in the Finding Firmer Ground report series examines how technological advancements have increased distrust and uncertainty in U.S.-China relations. From big data to semiconductors, the multiauthor report looks into the geopolitical implications of technological development and what strategies, if any, policymakers in the United States and China can take to mitigate tensions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

279. Digital Surveillance in Serbia

Author:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
People’s ever-stronger reliance on digital technologies and devices has caused states and private actors to increasingly reach for various systems and tools for the digital surveillance of citizens. Consequently, high-resolution cameras, artificial intelligence, programmes for biometric recognition, tools for automatic data collection from the Internet, and intrusive software for monitoring mobile phones have become the everyday reality of people worldwide. The spread of digital surveillance in Serbia is highly non-transparent, and especially dangerous since Serbia has been assessed as a captured state characterised by the abuse of state resources for the sake of personal and party interests. Although the reports by the media and investigative journalists are important, they are focused on individual cases, which makes it difficult to get a broader picture of the scale of the digital surveillance problem in Serbia based on them. That is why it is important, starting from the existing reports, to map the digital surveillance infrastructure in Serbia, i.e. to make a list of digital surveillance equipment and programmes the state institutions have acquired, determine whether they are competent and authorised to use them, and how these technologies are misused. Since Serbia is striving to become a member of the European Union (EU), it is also important to show how the EU is attempting to regulate this area.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Surveillance, Institutions, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

280. Mind the Gap: The Challenges of Assurance for Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Isaac Gazendam and Philip Dawson
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
Artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities have progressed rapidly since defeating human players at board games. From voice assistants to chatbots, image filters to multi-modal content generation, AI is accelerating individual, commercial, and scientific purposes. The development of increasingly advanced AI systems, each with unique strengths and vulnerabilities, has also made assessing and managing AI risk a daunting prospect. Controls do exist. A variety of stakeholders have made strides in proposing tools and methods to govern AI systems. A common approach applied across these attempts is based on assurance, a collection of approaches and techniques that aim to measure the quality, reliability, and trustworthiness of AI products, services, organizations, or professionals. To some extent, governments are relying on assurance-based approaches to govern AI – from assessments and audit to certification – regardless of whether they have plans to develop AI regulations. Yet the AI assurance ecosystem remains nascent. Frameworks for AI assessments and audits are still evolving, as are supporting standards and accreditation criteria for third-party auditors, reviewers and evaluators. In some cases, it is now possible to apply certain assurance mechanisms to the governance of narrower applications of AI and related organizational processes. However, assurance-based approaches to more advanced systems based on large language models (LLMs) or generative models remain in their infancy.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, Artificial Intelligence, and Large Language Models (LLMs)
Political Geography:
Global Focus