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31. Human Rights, but with CPC Characteristics, Rising in China's Foreign Policy

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
For China, human rights in relation to a sovereignty is gaining importance in its cooperation with countries of the Global South. The Chinese authorities emphasise the right of governments to make their own decisions in this area, which is welcomed by many of these, mainly authoritarian, states. For the EU, it is important both to counter the Chinese narrative on such disparities in human rights standards and to apply sanctions against China in cases of violations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Sovereignty, Sanctions, and European Union
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Global South

32. Economic Impacts of the Sanctions on the Russian Economy and Stabilization Measures for Economic Cooperation between Korea and Russia

Author:
Minhyeon Jeong
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
There are concerns that the economic sanctions imposed by the West on Russia will continue even after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2022 and has since prolonged. This is because the nature of the war encompasses a multifaceted structure that cannot be easily explained by the mere clash of interests between Russia and Ukraine, the primary parties involved. Therefore, it may be overly optimistic to expect that the Western sanctions against Russia will be fully lifted following the conclusion of the war. If there is a high likelihood that the Western economic sanctions against Russia will be prolonged, it is necessary to systematically analyze the long-term impact of these sanctions on the Russian economy. Even though Russia's economic growth rates in 2022 and 2023 were more favorable than anticipated by the West, it cannot be definitively stated that the long-term effects of the sanctions will be negligible. This is because the intrinsic nature of the sanctions against Russia is to "impose economic isolation," suggesting that the prolonged duration of these sanctions is likely to have structurally adverse long-term effects on the Russian economy. Meanwhile, the Government of the Russian Federation is devising and establishing various domestic and international strategies in order to minimize the structural adverse impacts on the economy. By thoroughly re-viewing these domestic and international strategies, it is essential to systematically understand the direction of development within the Russian economy and the demand for international economic cooperation. This understanding will allow for the rapid restoration of economic cooperation between Korea and Russia, and the enhancement of cooperative synergy amid prolonged sanctions. Given this backdrop, this manuscript aims to summarize three key conclusions from the work of Jeong et al. (2023). First, we provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the long-term impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. Second, we review the foreign and domestic policies of the Russian Federation in response to the prolonged sanctions following the war. Third, based on the findings of the first and second analyses, we explore measures to stabilize economic cooperation between Korea and Russia under the anticipated prolonged sanctions.
Topic:
Sanctions, Economy, Economic Cooperation, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia, and South Korea

33. The Rise of US Economic Sanctions on China: Analysis of a New PIIE Dataset

Author:
Martin Chorzempa, Mary Lovely, and Christine Wan
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Concerns over China’s national security and human rights activities have led the United States to rely increasingly on financial sanctions and export controls to curb Beijing’s behavior. But the tools are so complex it is difficult to assess their effectiveness. A new PIIE dataset sheds light on this economic statecraft. The first Trump administration added three times as many Chinese entities to export control and other sanctions lists than the previous four administrations; the Biden administration added even more to these lists. Most sanctions and controls target high-tech sectors, especially electronics, military and defense entities, aviation, space, and aerospace; targets are chosen under a veil of secrecy, raising questions over accountability and transparency. The benefits of isolating Chinese firms come with potential costs, hobbling innovation for US and allied business, encouraging circumvention of sanctions, and accelerating Chinese innovation.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, National Security, Sanctions, and Exports
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34. US-South Korea Cyber Cooperation: Towards the Higher-Hanging Fruits

Author:
Jenny Jun and So Jeong Kim
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
In the past decade, the US and South Korea faced a relatively narrow set of challenges in cyberspace, notably North Korea’s cyber crime facilitating sanctions evasion. In the next decade, however, the two countries will face a more diversified set of challenges with growing North Korean ties with Russia, its involvement in the war in Ukraine, and intensifying US-China competition. The US and South Korea must develop a joint playbook for responding to scenarios of disruptive cyber operations targeting South Korean public and private sectors and prepare for an even more difficult environment for curbing North Korea’s cyber crime as Russia provides a way out. Over the past two years, the US and South Korea have significantly deepened and broadened cooperation on cyber issues and have expanded cooperation further to trilateral and multilateral settings. The two countries established several regular high-level and working-level dialogues, have issued joint sanctions and threat advisories, and deepened mil-to-mil cooperation. However, 2024 has been a watershed in terms of shifting geopolitical dynamics on and around the Korean peninsula. Cyber threats will become more diversified, and the bilateral relationship will be tested at the seams without a clear joint strategic concept and operational plan.
Topic:
Sanctions, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

35. UN Tools for Addressing Conflict-Related Sexual Violence: An Analysis of Listings and Sanctions Processes

Author:
Jenna Russo and Lauren McGowan
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Since the Security Council first recognized conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) as a threat to international peace and security in 2008, the UN has developed an increasing number of pathways to prevent and respond to such crimes. One of these is the annual report of the secretary-general on CRSV, which includes an annexed list of perpetrators who are credibly suspected of committing or being responsible for patterns of CRSV violations in contexts on the agenda of the Security Council. In addition, perpetrators of CRSV may also be designated in UN sanctions regimes. Yet while both of these processes aim to prevent and respond to CRSV, they are not always coherent with one another. This paper analyzes the relationship between the annual reports of the secretary-general on CRSV and sanctions designations to provide recommendations to enhance their complementarity. It provides an overview of the CRSV annual report and the process for listing parties. It then focuses on designations in sanctions regimes for crimes related to sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), including the level of coherence between the reporting of the secretary-general and designations in sanctions regimes. Next, the paper analyzes the reporting and political barriers that inhibit more regular designations for SGBV in sanctions regimes. Finally, it provides recommendations to the UN and member states on how to improve the coherence, coordination, and effectiveness of these processes, including the following.
Topic:
United Nations, Sanctions, Sexual Violence, UN Security Council, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

36. Safeguarding Humanitarian Action from the Unintended Effects of Sanctions: Resolution 2664 and the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida Regime

Author:
Alice Debarre
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
Resolution 2664, adopted by the UN Security Council on December 9, 2022, was a landmark resolution that created a clear and well-defined humanitarian carve-out for UN sanctions. The application of the carve-out to the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime was particularly important given the far-reaching impact of that regime. It applies across multiple countries, including some of the world’s most challenging humanitarian contexts. This paper examines how Resolution 2664 has established a humanitarian carve-out within UN sanctions regimes and its impact on facilitating humanitarian access to financial services. It also analyzes the limitations the resolution imposes on asset-freeze measures and specific humanitarian organizations, as well as the challenges of extending the carve-out for the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime beyond its expiration in December 2024. In order to maintain the positive impact on humanitarian operations of the resolution so far, including in situations impacted by the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime, and to realize the full potential of Resolution 2664 in safeguarding humanitarian action, this paper offers the following recommendations: Security Council members should decide a standing application of the humanitarian carve-out for the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida sanctions regime in December 2024. Humanitarian actors should continue to provide member states with evidence of the positive humanitarian impact of Resolution 2664. Humanitarian actors should continue to share information with member states and donors about their due-diligence and risk-mitigation practices and any instances of incidental benefits going to listed individuals or entities. All stakeholders should ensure that discussions around Resolution 2664 and the carve-out for the 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida regime are fact- and evidence-based. Member states should fully implement Resolution 2664 in a harmonized manner and pursue efforts to socialize and operationalize it. All stakeholders should pursue and strengthen cross-sector engagement.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Sanctions, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Global Focus

37. Syria returns to the Arab League

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The decision to restore Syria’s membership in the Arab League (AL) is aimed at Arab states gaining greater control over the situation in the region and reducing external influence, including that of the West. Although the AL imposed a number of obligations on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, such as holding elections, it is doubtful whether the League can enforce them. The organisation’s decision to normalise relations with Syria will be used to undermine the effectiveness of the sanctions in counteracting violations of international law, also in the context of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Topic:
International Law, Sanctions, Syrian War, Normalization, Bashar al-Assad, Arab League, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Arab Countries and Syria

38. Using Frozen Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Possibilities for the EU

Author:
Elzbieta Kaca
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU wants to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, using for this purpose frozen Russian assets, among others. The European Commission proposes to improve the system of confiscation of private assets of sanctioned persons in case of criminal activity and to obtain income from the active management of immobilised Russian public assets. These solutions may yield limited results. To be more effective, the EU would have to reach an international agreement to confiscate the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Topic:
Sanctions, Reconstruction, European Union, Assets, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

39. Lavrov Visits Latin America to Try to Lure It to Russia's Side

Author:
Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 17-21 April, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. During his trip, he argued that the goals and interests of Russia and most Latin American countries coincide. He also repeated false Russian narratives, for example, about the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine, portraying Russia as a victim of the policy of the West. While he used his stay in Brazil to legitimise the Russian narratives, in other countries, it was mainly about consolidating Russia’s ties with their authoritarian regimes, including cooperation on evading sanctions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Narrative, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Latin America

40. China's response to the US tech war: The closing of detours

Author:
Yang Jiang
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In the US-China rivalry, no battle is currently more fierce than the one over technology, with both countries ramping up efforts to pursue global technological leadership. The tech war has intensified under President Joe Biden, with the US’s strangling of China’s technological bottleneck getting tighter and tighter. The US’s stated aims are protecting its national security and foreign policy interests and preventing sensitive technologies with military applications from being acquired by China. Some analysts point to Beijing’s Made in China 2025 as the trigger of the tech war because that is China’s plan to upgrade manufacturing and seek the top positions in global value chains. The US is pursuing a strategy to outcompete and outmanoeuvre China, as is stated in the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy in October 2022: “this decade will be decisive, in setting the terms of our [the US’s] competition with the PRC”. Especially in the sector of semiconductors or chips, where the West controls China’s access to the most advanced technology, US restrictions and its ability to bring its allies into line have been destructive to China’s development. On 21 May 2023, Beijing’s ban of American chipmaker Micron from critical information infrastructure in China signals a first direct retaliation from Beijing. China has also realised that some of its hitherto measures—turning to alternative sources of import, utilising policy loopholes, and sufficing with lower-level technology—are just detours. They are not long-term solutions; nor can they be the foundation of China’s national security. The US restrictions have forced China to adopt new measures to accelerate domestic innovation with more focus on basic research and market forces. How the tech war will play out has important implications for Western countries and global supply chains. This policy brief will focus on China’s responses to the US-waged tech war, specifically: What have been China’s domestic measures to respond to the tech restrictions from the US, and what is China’s potential for technological breakthrough? What have been China’s international responses, and what are China’s options for retaliation?
Topic:
Science and Technology, Sanctions, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America