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21. Regions At Risk: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Mali

Author:
Ibrahim Yahya Ibrahim and Mollie Zapata
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
More than four years after the overthrow of jihadist rule in northern cities in 2013 and deployment of a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission, violence in northern Mali has continued, expanded to other regions, and, in some areas, escalated. Although mass atrocities—large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations—are not yet taking place in Mali, early warning signs are visible and warrant immediate attention by the Malian government and international partners. This report explains the factors behind three high-risk intercommunal conflicts, elaborates plausible scenarios that would lead to escalation in violence against civilians in the next 12 to 18 months, and proposes recommendations to mitigate the risks. We identify two conflicts that could devolve into mass atrocities: (1) the conflict between the Peul, Bambara, and Dogon ethnic groups in central Mali (Mopti and Ségou regions) and (2) the conflict between the Tolebe (Peul) and the Daousahaq (Tuareg) in Ménaka, near the Niger border. This report also assesses risk for escalation in the simmering conflict between the Ifoghas and Imghad Tuareg clans in the region of Kidal. We conclude that the Kidal conflict does not pose a plausible risk for mass atrocities over the next 12 to 18 months, but it does merit close monitoring.
Topic:
Peacekeeping, Violence, Civilians, Armed Conflict, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

22. Breaking Cycles of Distrust: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Bangladesh

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This report explores scenarios over the next 12–18 months in which Bangladesh could plausibly experience large-scale, systematic attacks on civilian populations. The authors selected Bangladesh for this study because it has consistently ranked in the top 10 percent of countries in the world on the Early Warning Project’s global statistical risk assessment for state-led mass killing; yet, there has been relatively little apparent policy attention to these risks. Staff of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide interviewed a wide variety of stakeholders in Bangladesh and elsewhere to identify potential mass atrocity scenarios and the underlying risks and mitigating factors. The risk of mass violence in Bangladesh is rooted in the competition between Bangladesh’s two main political parties and is likely to be particularly acute in the lead-up to and aftermath of the general election scheduled for late 2018. Contested or unclear electoral results present the greatest risk of mass killing. If there is disagreement regarding the election results, allegations of fraud or rigging, or a situation where neither the Awami League (AL) nor the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) receives the required number of seats to form a government, the deeply polarized political environment has created incentives for each major party to react violently. Supporters of the competing party are likely to be the main targets in any mass atrocity scenario; religious minorities face distinct but related risks as well.
Topic:
Civil Society, Elections, Domestic Politics, Dialogue, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia