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11. A Framework for Action for the Responsibility to Protect: A Resource for States

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The Responsibility to Protect populations from genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing has emerged as an important global principle since the adoption of the UN World Summit Outcome Document in 2005. Since the conception of R2P, individual states and regional organizations, the UN, civil society, and experts around the world have worked to establish what implementation of R2P and the prevention of mass atrocity crimes means in practice. The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect and the Asia-Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect have developed a guide for states on steps to take to protect populations from atrocity crimes, at home and abroad. “A Framework for Action for the Responsibility to Protect: A Resource for States” consolidates and builds upon existing expertise from published works and best practice from states, regional organizations and the UN on how to prevent and respond to atrocity crimes. We encourage all states to utilize this framework to assess gaps and identify opportunities to address atrocity risks in their own countries, as well as to understand options available for responding to risks in their region and around the world.
Topic:
International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Addressing Earthquake Risk in India

Author:
India International Centre (IIC)
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
Earthquakes are among the major hazards in India. The areas vulnerable to earthquakes are the plate boundary regions, e.g., Himalaya, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, northeast India and some of the regions in plate interior, e.g., Kachchh. Unlike other hazards such as cyclones, tsunamis or floods, where forecasts for their likely arrival are made, earthquakes strike without any warning. The current scientific knowledge is not sufficient to predict earthquakes. Hence it is necessary to assess our vulnerability to impacts of earthquakes and ensure preparedness to mitigate their effects on society. The development of such resilience can certainly help to avoid disasters. This issue has to be addressed at three levels: a) earth system level or status of knowledge about earthquake generation processes and it’s hazard potential; b) social system level or response mechanism, role of government, private sector and nongovernment organisations, and infrastructure development; and c) human system level or consciousness, awareness and readiness of people towards an earthquake hazard. Today, in our country, monitoring of earthquakes, estimating earthquake parameters, and disseminating this information has become very efficient. All the earthquake monitoring systems have been networked to provide data in the shortest possible time. It is well known that earthquakes do not kill people; poorly designed and built buildings do. The building codes designed to minimise the impact of earthquakes depend on potential risks from hazards. Microzonation maps, useful in assessing seismic hazards and risk potential, seismic response of engineering structures and land-use planning maps, have been prepared for many cities. During the last two decades, the response mechanism has been made very efficient. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) along with the central and state governments have been provided necessary relief and rescue. Still, there are certain gaps and many questions to be addressed. a) Is there is a possibility of a large earthquake in Himalaya, especially in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, in the near future? If so, what actions do we need to take? b) How do we use our current understanding acquired through research in objective hazard assessment? What are the shortcomings, what should, can and needs to be done? c) How can microzonation maps be integrated in urban planning? What are the impediments? d) Are there any precursors to earthquakes? What is the status of precursor research in the country? e) Is early warning of earthquakes possible and can it be safely implemented? What is the current status of our knowledge about earthquake warning systems and their effectiveness? f) What are triggered earthquakes? What is the state of knowledge and can they be avoided? g) What is the status of the response mechanism (organisational strength) at the central, state and local levels? How effective is communication with people? h) What is the status for providing relief and rescue in an earthquake event? What are the preparations for providing medical care, shelter and food? i) What kind of public outreach programmes are required? How can we sensitise people, especially children? To discuss these issues and to provide possible solutions, a Workshop was organiaed on 12 April 2023 at the India International Centre, New Delhi. What follows are the presentations made by experts in the field
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Earthquake, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

13. How Outrage Can be Quantified in Risk Assessment

Author:
Jerzy Wolanin, Paweł Kępka, and Oksana Telak
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
In the article the problem how an emotional state influences quantitative risk profile is discussed. Risk as a concept enhances two equivalent dimensions. The first dimension relates to experts’ risk assessment. The second one is related to public risk perception, named outrage. One can understand outrage as the emotional state concerning risk. Five different degrees of hazardous situations are described and public emotional attitude towards them is analyzed by structured interview. A correlation between the emotional attitude and readiness to act is calculated to describe amplification of risk by the emotional state. Then a risk profile is constructed.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Perception, Risk Assessment, and Outrage
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. “Don’t Abandon Us”: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Papua, Indonesia

Author:
Made Supriatma
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This report assesses the risk of mass atrocities (large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations) in Papua, Indonesia, over the next 12–18 months. Since its integration into Indonesia in 1969, Papua has seen ongoing political resistance and armed rebellion in favor of independence, and government repression in response. The region is home to Indigenous Papuans and a growing population of migrants from other parts of Indonesia, layering intercommunal tensions on top of the conflict over the region’s governance. An upward trend in the frequency of violent incidents prompted this analysis of the potential for mass atrocities. This report is based on field research in Indonesia, including in Papua, from March to August 2021, as well as on expert consultations and a literature review. The report’s conceptual framework and research questions draw from the atrocity assessment framework developed by the US government.
Topic:
Security, Armed Forces, Indigenous, Industry, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Papua

15. Mass Atrocities in Ukraine: Assessing Risks of Significant Escalation

Author:
Daniel Solomon
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On October 11, 2022, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum convened a private roundtable to discuss potential scenarios of mass atrocity escalation in Ukraine. The discussion featured preliminary remarks by three Ukraine experts, followed by a facilitated discussion. The discussion aimed to encourage more systematic thinking about how the current pattern of mass atrocities in Ukraine could escalate, in terms of severity, lethality, and/or systematicity to inform policy makers’ consideration of preventive options. The 2022 United States Strategy to Anticipate, Prevent, and Respond to Atrocities states, “In cases of ongoing atrocities, the [Atrocity Prevention] Task Force supports regional policy processes in developing and monitoring targeted response options and adjusting course as needed.” Assessing potential pathways to escalation is one way to help identify targeted response options that could mitigate atrocity risks. Even in a case like Ukraine, where the core US strategy is to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion, additional options may be available to help protect vulnerable populations or head-off future escalation. At the time of the convening, little analysis of this type appeared to exist, despite the substantial attention to documenting atrocity crimes, monitoring day-to-day developments in the war, and anticipating potential future scenarios of the conflict in general. Therefore, the discussion focused on the following prompts: What are the major potential triggers or drivers of potential significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine over the next year or so? What strategies might policy makers use to anticipate, prevent, or respond to the potential escalation of atrocities? What observable trends or events would indicate increasing likelihood of a significant escalation of atrocities in Ukraine? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This rapporteur’s report summarizes key discussion points and questions without attribution.
Topic:
Atrocities, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

16. Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 1)

Author:
Carl V. Evans, Chris Anderson, Malcom Baker, Ronald Bearse, and Salih Biçakci
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
In 2014 NATO’s Centre of Excellence-Defence Against Terrorism (COE-DAT) launched the inaugural course on “Critical Infrastructure Protection Against Terrorist Attacks.” As this course garnered increased attendance and interest, the core lecturer team felt the need to update the course in critical infrastructure (CI) taking into account the shift from an emphasis on “protection” of CI assets to “security and resiliency.” What was lacking in the fields of academe, emergency management, and the industry practitioner community was a handbook that leveraged the collective subject matter expertise of the core lecturer team, a handbook that could serve to educate government leaders, state and private-sector owners and operators of critical infrastructure, academicians, and policymakers in NATO and partner countries. Enabling NATO’s Collective Defense: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency is the culmination of such an effort, the first major collaborative research project under a Memorandum of Understanding between the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), and NATO COE-DAT. The research project began in October 2020 with a series of four workshops hosted by SSI. The draft chapters for the book were completed in late January 2022. Little did the research team envision the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year. The Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, successive missile attacks against Ukraine’s electric generation and distribution facilities, rail transport, and cyberattacks against almost every sector of the country’s critical infrastructure have been on world display. Russian use of its gas supplies as a means of economic warfare against Europe—designed to undermine NATO unity and support for Ukraine—is another timely example of why adversaries, nation-states, and terrorists alike target critical infrastructure. Hence, the need for public-private sector partnerships to secure that infrastructure and build the resiliency to sustain it when attacked. Ukraine also highlights the need for NATO allies to understand where vulnerabilities exist in host nation infrastructure that will undermine collective defense and give more urgency to redressing and mitigating those fissures.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Alliance, Crisis Management, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

17. The Role and Importance of Disaster Risk Communication in Disaster Risk Reduction

Author:
Emin Yahya Menteşe
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The communication model defined as disaster risk communication is one of the main components of disaster risk reduction and is often described along the lines of sharing critical information with the public and relevant parties during and after a disaster. However, the meaning of disaster risk communication goes beyond that single feature. This communication model aims to explain and create an accurate understanding of risk reduction activities, encourage people to integrate the concept of risk into their lives, and make the risk reduction approach a priority policy by turning it into a societal norm.
Topic:
Communications, Governance, Public Policy, Disaster Management, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report

Author:
Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America

19. Fragile States Index 2019

Author:
Fund for Peace
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index — and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Fragile States, Political stability, Arab Spring, Peace, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Caucasus, Middle East, Brazil, Yemen, South America, Central America, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Somalia, Mauritius, and Global Focus

20. The Role of Justice in Preventing Mass Atrocities: 2019 Sudikof Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:
Amanda McCaffrey and Andrew Moore
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
While justice may advance many goals in the context of mass atrocities, the focus of this seminar was its role in prevention and non-recurrence. The seminar took an expansive definition of justice tools, moving beyond the “transitional” justice framework to explore the potential utility of justice initiatives at all stages of atrocities. Justice interventions are not limited to efforts to prosecute perpetrators after atrocities have occurred, but can also be incorporated early on in at-risk situations and, in some cases, used to stem escalating tensions or violence. With limited scholarly or practical consensus on the role of justice in prevention and non-recurrence, domestic and international actors need to better understand which justice tools are best suited to various stages of conflict and how to design such tools to more effectively prevent and mitigate risks of atrocities. Breaking down silos between communities working on these issues—academics, international justice experts, policymakers, rule of law practitioners, atrocity prevention experts, local experts, victims, historians—is a first step to addressing this need. Participants agreed, however, that more work needs to be done to more precisely answer these questions and to cross-pollinate what research shows and translate it into practical policies, programs, and learnings that practitioners can use. The organizers framed the discussion around three distinct approaches to prevention: 1. Structural Prevention: Efforts to address underlying risk factors and root causes of atrocities in context. 2. Operational Prevention: Efforts to change the decision making processes of individual actors. 3. Systemic Prevention: Efforts to address global or transnational risks that fuel atrocities.
Topic:
Transitional Justice, Training, Justice, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Global Focus