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41. Iranian Subversive Efforts in Jordan: A Strategic Threat Requiring a Robust Response

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Against the background of Hamas' ongoing war with Israel (and the expressions of support for it among Palestinians and Islamists in Jordan), the Iranian regime has intensified its efforts to subvert the Hashemite monarchy. The arrests in March 2024 of Iranian agents involved in smuggling arms to Muslim Brotherhood elements in Jordan are part of a campaign to counter the role of Tehran in bringing both drugs and weapons over the Syrian and Iraqi borders into Jordan. Tensions rose further over Jordan's supportive role in foiling the Iranian attack on Israel on 14 April 2024. For the Iranian regime, the destabilization of Jordan is a vital precursor for the strategic goal of turning Judea and Samaria into "another Gaza", as Supreme Leader 'Ali Khamenei suggested back in 2014: hence the importance of American and Israeli support for Jordan. The stability of the Kingdom (and thus the need to reduce economic and social strains) is a vital interest of both Israel and the West.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islamism, Muslim Brotherhood, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Jordan

42. A discussion of Kosovo- NATO relations and prospects for greater cooperation

Author:
Leureta Lumi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Membership of Kosovo in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is regarded as a national interest across Kosovo’s political spectrum and receives substantial public support. According to the 2022 Security Barometer by the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS), an overwhelming 92 percent of all citizens in Kosovo are in favor of joining NATO. This support is even more pronounced among the Kosovo Albanians, where the approval rate soars to 99.5 percent. This is the only objective in Kosovo that enjoys this level of public backing. Kosovo’s Security Strategy 2022-2027 states ‘The irreplaceable aim of the Republic of Kosovo is NATO membership and integration as the mechanism that provides long-term strategic security’. NATO’s leading role in ending the 1999 war and averting a potential genocide in Kosovo is widely seen as a major reason behind the strong public support for the alliance. However, this sentiment has been reinforced by recent developments, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, intensifying Kosovo’s appreciation for NATO membership. The urgency for Kosovo to join NATO is further heightened by the unresolved bilateral disputes with Serbia and the increasingly adversarial positions of Serbian President Vucic towards, as shown by a recent statement from him, which implies that on Kosovo, Serbia should learn from Azerbaijan, adding that: “They waited 27 years for special geopolitical circumstances”. The Banjska terrorist attack in September 2023, which is believed to have been orchestrated with the support of Serbian security institutions and in cooperation with Russia, reinforces the perception that Serbia sees a military solution to the “Kosovo problem”. Although Kosovo benefits from NATO’s protection via the KFOR mission, NATO’s stance on Kosovo remains status-neutral, with no significant advancement in NATO-Kosovo political relations since 2016. This paper delves into these challenges and seeks to explore the obstacles Kosovo faces on its path to NATO membership. Accordingly, this paper includes an analysis of the current NATO-Kosovo relations, options for Kosovo to enhance these relations and overcome key challenges, including exploration of the Partnership for Peace and the Membership Action Plan (MAP), a review of NATO accession processes in Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia, and concluding remarks with recommendations.
Topic:
NATO, Public Opinion, Regional Security, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Kosovo

43. Europe's defence against Russia

Author:
Elina Valtonen
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The large-scale offensive launched by Russia against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 marked a real turning point in the history of Europe. It radically altered the European security order, and there will probably be no turning back. The cooperative, treaty-based security order has been transformed into a system based on a balance of power, deterrence and containment[1]. By waging a brutal and illegal war against Ukraine, Russia's objectives have not changed. Its actions demonstrate total disdain for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an independent neighbouring state. This Russian aggression, in flagrant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter, demonstrates Russia's determination to undermine the foundations of the European security order. There is nothing to suggest that, in the area of our common security, Russia will resume respect for existing treaties and commitments. It is becoming increasingly isolated from the international community. Its recent hybrid operation to redirect foreign nationals to Finland's eastern border is further evidence of this trend. Russia is and will remain on the doorstep of the European Union. It is essential that, on the international stage, the European Union continues to act resolutely and in a spirit of unity to stem Russian aggression, that it prepares for the future and that it invests in defence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

44. Making Sense of Multinational Cooperation

Author:
Ina Kraft
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Multinational cooperation is a prominent characteristic among the armed forces of European states. However, despite its prevalence, a shared understanding of this phenomenon is lacking in the research community. Furthermore, studies often restrict their focus to examining the effects of cooperation, neglecting the essential exploration of its underlying conditions. To overcome these limitations, this article develops a categorisation of multinational cooperation into structures, processes, and activities. It concludes that multinational cooperation in Europe can be categorised into three distinct phases (1990-2004, 2005-2013, 2014-) with significantly varying underlying motives for cooperation, particularly since the ‘wave of multinational cooperation’ in Europe following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014. By introducing a novel framework for comprehending military cooperation and presenting an empirically informed overview of recent shifts in cooperation across Europe, this article aims to invigorate further research in the field.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Multinational Corporations, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

45. Europe’s Conscription Challenge: Lessons From Nordic and Baltic States

Author:
Sophia Besch and Katrine Westgaard
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine reminds European countries about the importance of manpower, many are once again weighing the promise and perils of compulsory military service.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Armed Conflict, Conscription, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

46. Gang violence in the Caribbean reaches farther than Haiti

Author:
Sandra Pellegrini
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In recent years, Haiti has made headlines for unprecedented levels of gang violence, with gangs increasingly challenging state authorities and expanding their grip over the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area and beyond, which exerts a heavy toll on civilians. Yet, this worsening security situation is not confined to Haiti; other countries and territories in the Caribbean, particularly Jamaica, Puerto Rico, and Trinidad and Tobago, have experienced a surge in gang violence amid their fragmented and volatile gang landscapes.
Topic:
Violence, Gangs, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Latin America, Caribbean, and Haiti

47. Newly restructured, the Islamic State in the Sahel aims for regional expansion

Author:
Hén Nsaibia
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
A series of military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in recent years have transformed military dynamics in the region, shifting bilateral assistance from traditional Western partners like France and the United States to Russia, through mercenaries from the Wagner Group and its successor, Africa Corps. Despite these seismic changes, both the Islamist insurgency spearheaded by the local al-Qaeda offshoot, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), and the Sahel province of the Islamic State (thereafter, IS Sahel) conflict have intensified and increased. In the first half of 2024, reported fatalities across the three Sahelian states reached a record-high 7,620 — an increase of 9% compared to the same period in 2023, 37% compared to 2022, and a staggering 190% compared to 2021.
Topic:
Islamic State, Coup, Regional Security, and Islamic State in the Sahel
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

48. Countering Coercion: Managing Chinese Gray Zone Activity in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean Region

Author:
Lisa Curtis and Nilanthi Samaranayake
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
The People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) has been engaging in gray zone activity—coercive behavior that is aimed at changing the status quo but that is below a threshold that would prompt a military response—particularly against the Philippines in the South China Sea (SCS), and these actions are raising tensions in the Indo-Pacific.1 Washington must closely monitor the situation and take steps to help protect the sovereignty of Southeast Asian nations from PRC intimidation and territorial encroachment. China makes ambiguous claims to 90 percent of the 1.3 million square miles of the South China Sea, including waters within the exclusive economic zones of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Projecting power and dominating the South China Sea, with its critical resources and central role in global trade—around $3 trillion worth of commerce transits the seaways annually—is a top national security and foreign policy goal for China.2 PRC maritime bullying is not new, but it has intensified in the past few years, especially against the Philippines. Beijing aims to convince Manila to give up its claim to Second Thomas Shoal, an underwater reef located in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea. The Philippines makes its claim to the shoal by housing a small contingent of marines aboard a World War II–era ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, that was intentionally grounded there in 1999.3 Philippines-China tensions in the South China Sea threaten to involve the United States, which has been a treaty ally of the Philippines for over 70 years. Despite the risk that tensions could further escalate, Washington continues to stand firmly behind Manila as it employs asymmetric tactics to push back against Chinese behavior.4 PRC maritime activities and goals in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), for the time being, are focused on protecting China’s economic interests (80 percent of its energy imports flow through the Indian Ocean), gathering intelligence, and projecting power, not on asserting maritime claims.5 However, China’s unrelenting aggression in the SCS has raised concern that Beijing will soon begin to demonstrate similar behavior in the IOR. Over the past 15 to 20 years, China has expanded from sporadic to regular presence in the Indian Ocean through its naval ships, research vessels, and fishing fleets, as well as a military base. The United States and its allies and partners must not be complacent about PRC actions in the Indian Ocean Region, especially China’s submarine port visits and docking of dual-use ships such as in Sri Lanka and, more recently, Maldives. Due to the high stakes involved, the United States and its allies and partners must balance the need to deter China with the need to avoid military escalation when responding to PRC gray zone acts. When there are violations of international law and norms or when the lives of official personnel or civilians are threatened, Washington and its allies must respond.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Gray Zone, Coercion, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Indian Ocean, and South China Sea

49. Enhancing Trilateral Security Cooperation: Korea, the United States, and Indonesia

Author:
Sook-yeon Lee
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Sook-yeon Lee argues that Indonesia serves as an ideal partner for the United States and South Korea to advance their objectives in the Indo-Pacific region and that the three countries should expand areas for trilateral cooperation. While the bilateral South Korea-Indonesia and US-Indonesia partnerships have deepened over the past several decades, trilateral security cooperation remains unexplored due to the differing scopes of cooperation between the two bilateral relationships. Lee outlines several areas in which the three countries should expand trilateral cooperation and contribute to strengthening regional security. Due to Indonesia’s desire for neutrality and South Korea’s concerns regarding its ties with China, Lee recommends a cautious approach to initiating trilateral cooperation in maritime security and counterterrorism before gradually expanding to additional areas. Such an approach both addresses Indonesia’s immediate cooperative needs and aligns with areas that South Korea and the United States have already identified within their respective partnerships with Indonesia. However, the primary challenge facing trilateral security cooperation is maintaining mutual trust and ensuring the leaders of all three countries are committed to upholding trust as the foundation of trilateralism. Domestic politics and foreign policy considerations of the three countries further complicate efforts to enhance trilateral security cooperation. Thus, Lee recommends that the three countries strengthen strategic dialogues to understand and respect the differences in each country’s respective core interests to ensure the establishment of a durable trilateral partnership between South Korea, Indonesia, and the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Interests, Regional Security, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Indonesia, South Korea, North Korea, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

50. A Proposed Paradigm Shift: Future Regional Security Concerns and Human Rights

Author:
Greg Scarlatoiu
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. policy toward North Korea has been almost exclusively focused on eliminating the production and proliferation of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. The past three decades have been defined by bipartisan failure on North Korea policy. To overcome this grim predicament, a “paradigm shift” is needed—one that elevates North Korean human rights to a level on par with the other critical issues, including political, security, and military concerns. Advancing human rights through multilateral and international diplomacy will be key to a human rights upfront approach that leads to safeguarding peace and security on the Korean peninsula, in Northeast Asia, and beyond.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, Ideology, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea