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2. The New Syria and the Regional Balance of Power
- Author:
- Amjed Rasheed
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024 and the subsequent rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now leading the Syrian interim government in the country, have dramatically shaped the regional balance of power. Remarkably, the HTS-led interim government has been making some serious attempts to consolidate its control, and boost legitimacy, but also rebuild Syria after 14 years of civil war and a half-a-century of Assad dynasty rule. In its pursuit to achieve these ends, the interim government has launched diplomatic efforts toward regional and international powerhouses. Everybody, including Russia, is currently welcome to visit Damascus. Yet there is also failure so far to open up the transition to others, which could generate grievances and lead to disruptive regional interference. While the success of such a policy remains to be gauged, the HTS approach to accommodate regional contradiction is worth explaining.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations
3. Exploring options for advancing Kosovo-NATO relations
- Author:
- Ramadan Iazi and Jeta Loshaj
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- NATO’s role in Kosovo has been vital since the 1999 intervention and KFOR remains integral for guaranteeing security and stability not only in Republic of Kosovo but also the wider Western Balkans. Public sentiment for full NATO membership is extremely high in Kosovo—over 90% support—reflecting Kosovars’ enduring trust in the NATP alliance. However this overwhelming public support can be affected if Kosovo’s aspirations for closer ties with NATO are not addressed. While, Kosovo’s formal progress toward full membership is politically constrained by the fact that four NATO member states have yet to recognize its independence, there are other options that NATO can pursue to advance relations with Kosovo. In this context, this paper explores options how can Kosovo and NATO advance relations and cooperation. The 1995 study provides core principles for options that are examined in this paper. These principles remain highly relevant for Kosovo. While formal membership is stalled by non-recognizing NATO member states, the paper argues that an inclusive, step-by-step approach can be adapted for a flexible, deeper engagement with Kosovo. A central recommendation is the creation of a “Kosovo Enhanced Cooperation Initiative,” a tailored version of NATO’s partnership mechanisms (e.g., Partnership for Peace, Planning and Review Process, and the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre). KECI would aim to strengthen Kosovo’s defense institutions, enhance interoperability, support civil emergency preparedness, and develop broader crisis-management capabilities. Crucially, it would not force any change in the political stance on recognition among NATO member states. The EU-facilitated normalization dialogue between Republic of Kosovo and Serbia is one of the essential elements especially for Kosovo to build the confidence of both skeptical NATO member states and international partners when it comes to Euro-Atlantic integration process of the country. Regular coordination with NATO and the EU, particularly concerning sensitive actions in the north, would affirm that Kosovo’s leaders prioritize strategic partnerships and diplomacy over moves that risks and undermine support for Kosovo. Nevertheless, without any concrete carrots such as anything close to a guarantee that Kosovo gains an open perspective for NATO’s PfP, it is rather difficult for Kosovo to be encouraged to deliver on either an agreement with Serbia or any other agreement.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Partnerships, Normalization, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
4. Simul in the Middle East: Regional Strategic Ramifications of Israel and Hezbollah’s War
- Author:
- Boushra Jaber
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- This report aims to explore the background of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict and the context surrounding their most recent war. It argues that the causes and consequences of this war have both domestic and broader regional and international dimensions. The report underlines the significant ramifications of this war by analysing the origins, progression, and outcomes of the conflict at both domestic and regional levels, as well as its international resonance. Additionally, it presents policy recommendations to address these challenges, particularly in Lebanon, focusing on containing Hezbollah and strengthening state governance. Eventually, the report highlights two main findings: first, the conflict underscores the profound geopolitical interconnections within the Middle East, illustrating how instability in one nation can create a ripple effect throughout the region, ultimately impacting its overall stability. Second, it stresses the urgent need for carefully considered and well-informed policies to navigate the complexities and interdependencies inherent in the region.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Hezbollah, Armed Conflict, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon
5. Polish Presidency of the Council - A paradigm shift in Poland's European policy
- Author:
- Piotr Buras and Michał Matlak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Poland is holding the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2025. After a controversial Hungarian presidency and political turbulence in France and Germany, European public opinion is looking to Poland, where an openly Eurosceptic government was ousted in the 2023 elections. This change has come at a time when the European Union is facing major existential challenges, in particular with the war in Ukraine, which are especially resonant in Poland. The hopes pinned on Poland are as much a reflection of the impression of a leadership vacuum in Europe that Warsaw - who else at the moment? - could fill, as well as the country's growing economic and geopolitical position after two decades of EU membership.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
6. The New Political Groups in the European Parliament: Ideological Identity and Cohesion
- Author:
- Antonis Papakostas and Spyros Blavoukos
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the outcome of the June 2024 European Parliament elections, focusing on the characteristics of national political formations that are represented in Strasbourg and the identity of the political groups in the European Parliament. This analysis is based on two axes of ideological and political nature: (1) the political spectrum (Left to Right), and (2) the disposition of the parties toward European integration. The paper makes use of data from the European Election Study 2024 (EES) exploring EP political groups’ (lack of) homogeneity and the varying degree of their internal cohesion.
- Topic:
- Ideology, European Parliament, Identity, Regional Politics, and Cohesion
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7. The Impact of Energy Security on Inter-Relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
- Author:
- Haila Al-Mekaimi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The concept of energy security in the Arabian Gulf region refers to the ability to meet the energy needs of countries in the region without interruption in a way that guarantees the economic, social, and political stability of these countries. The concept of energy security in the Arabian Gulf includes several aspects: Ensuring strategic supplies. This relates to ensuring the continuous availability of oil and gas to producing and consuming countries in the region and beyond, avoiding any disturbances in the global market, and ensuring price stability. Energy diversification means diversifying energy sources and relying on them. Diverse energy, such as renewable energy, reduces total dependence on oil and gas and provides future economic opportunities. Strengthening energy independence: This includes developing national capabilities in the energy sectors, including developing the infrastructure and technologies necessary to extract and refine oil and gas and generate renewable energy. Achieving environmental sustainability: This requires achieving a balance between meeting energy needs, protecting the environment, and reducing harmful emissions. Regional and international cooperation Energy security also consists of enhancing cooperation between countries in the region and other countries in the field of energy, whether in exchanging knowledge and technology or in developing joint projects for generating and transmitting energy. This paper adopts a comparative methodology between Gulf countries to measure their ability to confront energy security in light of climate change. This paper reaches the most prominent conclusion, which is that the Gulf countries’ varying capabilities in achieving future energy security will play a major role in reshaping the inter-relations between the Gulf countries.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diversification, Sustainability, Gulf Cooperation Council, Regional Politics, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gulf Nations
8. What Lies Ahead for Syria: A Conversation with Dr. Omar Dahi (Episode 25)
- Author:
- Omar Dahi and Sahar Aziz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- A complex array of domestic, regional, and international factors contributed to the rise of Hafez Al Assad as president of Syria in 1970 and the ultimate demise of his son, Bashar Al Assad on December 8, 2024 – thirteen years after the Syrian people unsuccessfully rose up peacefully as part of the regional phenomena commonly referred to as the Arab Spring. Located at the center of geopolitical competition between Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, the nation of Syria will continue to play an instrumental role in regional politics, which in turn impacts U.S. interests in the oil-rich Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, Post-Conflict, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
9. Syria and Seismic Shifts in Middle East Politics with Bassam Haddad (Episode 29)
- Author:
- Sahar Aziz and Bassam Haddad
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- Syria's complex history and politics led to the overthrow of Bashar Al Assad on December 8, 2024 – as unexpected as the Arab Spring revolutions that gripped the Middle East thirteen years earlier. Located at the center of regional competition, the nation of Syria will continue to experience foreign intervention from its neighbors, as well as the United States. Meanwhile, the millions of Syrian refugees outside the country are gradually returning to rebuild their homeland. Host Sahar Aziz (https://law.rutgers.edu/bio/sa1356) speaks with Professor Bassam Haddad (https://schar.gmu.edu/profiles/bhaddad) about the origins of Syria’s uprising in 2011 that culminated in the overthrow of the Assad regime in 2024, the current uncertainty of Syria in regional politics, and what to expect in U.S. Middle East policy under the second Trump administration.
- Topic:
- Syrian War, Foreign Interference, Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
10. A Turning Point, or Not? Principles for a New European Order
- Author:
- Richard Youngs
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Despite repeated declarations of historic turning points, deep structural reforms to the European project remain elusive. While defense spending rises are welcome, EU governments must also pursue systemic changes to Europe’s political and security architecture.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe