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12. Four years since the referendum: the state of public opinion
- Author:
- John Curtice, Paula Surridge, Will Jennings, James Johnson, and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- To mark four years since the EU referendum, our Isolation Insight event looked at how public opinion has changed since the vote, how values have evolved and shaped politics, trust in government and leaders, and more. Speakers: Sir John Curtice, senior fellow, UK in a Changing Europe; Paula Surridge, political sociologist, University of Bristol; Professor Will Jennings, professor of political science and public policy, University of Southampton; James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners and former head pollster at 10 Downing Street; Chair: Professor Anand Menon, director, UK in a Changing Europe
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, European Union, Brexit, and Referendum
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
13. Cyber-enabled foreign interference in elections and referendums
- Author:
- Sarah O'Connor, Fergus Hanson, Emilia Currey, and Tracy Beattie
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, state actors have taken advantage of the digitisation of election systems, election administration and election campaigns to interfere in foreign elections and referendums. Their activity can be divided into two attack vectors. First, they’ve used various cyber operations, such as denial of service (DoS) attacks and phishing attacks, to disrupt voting infrastructure and target electronic and online voting, including vote tabulation. Second, they’ve used online information operations to exploit the digital presence of election campaigns, politicians, journalists and voters. Together, these two attack vectors (referred to collectively as ‘cyber-enabled foreign interference’ in this report because both are mediated through cyberspace) have been used to seek to influence voters and their turnout at elections, manipulate the information environment and diminish public trust in democratic processes. This research identified 41 elections and seven referendums between January 2010 and October 2020 where cyber-enabled foreign interference was reported, and it finds that there’s been a significant uptick in such activity since 2017. This data collection shows that Russia is the most prolific state actor engaging in online interference, followed by China, whose cyber-enabled foreign interference activity has increased significantly over the past two years. As well as these two dominant actors, Iran and North Korea have also tried to influence foreign elections in 2019 and 2020. All four states have sought to interfere in the 2020 US presidential elections using differing cyber-enabled foreign interference tactics. In many cases, these four actors use a combination of cyber operations and online information operations to reinforce their activities. There’s also often a clear geopolitical link between the interfering state and its target: these actors are targeting states they see as adversaries or useful to their geopolitical interests. Democratic societies are yet to develop clear thresholds for responding to cyber-enabled interference, particularly when it’s combined with other levers of state power or layered with a veil of plausible deniability. Even when they’re able to detect it, often with the help of social media platforms, research institutes and the media, most states are failing to effectively deter such activity. The principles inherent in democratic societies—openness, freedom of speech and the free flow of ideas—have made them particularly vulnerable to online interference.
- Topic:
- Elections, Referendum, Foreign Interference, and Cyberspace
- Political Geography:
- China, Australia, and Global Focus
14. The Future of the Kurdistan Region after the Defeat of ISIS and the Failure of the 2017 Independence Referendum
- Author:
- Pishko Shamsi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- In 2017, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq held an independence referendum, which triggered severe backlash, including the loss of control over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The backlash from the independence referendum prompted the regional government (Kurdistan Regional Government) to urgently shift policy and re-engage with Baghdad. Since then, the region has recovered politically and has implemented a pragmatic strategy to revitalize the economy and internal affairs. The KRG also launched diplomatic initiatives to restore relations with Iran and Turkey, and has pursued a policy of neutrality to manage the Region’s myriad of crises. Moreover, the KRG has pursued tactical alliances with Iraqi political parties to secure short-term gains, including the resumption of budget transfers from Baghdad. The KRG’s deal-making with Baghdad, however, has fallen short of translating into a sustainable policy, and many of the gains are fragile and dependent on Baghdad’s changing political scene. Without a long-term strategy, the KRG’s new leadership is unlikely to be able to deliver much needed institutional reforms to help curb corruption, improve governance, and enhance transparency in public affairs. And while the KRG has committed to reform politically, it remains unclear if it will bring about meaningful change and address structural challenges, such as entrenched crony networks, rentier economics, and partisan control over the public sector and security forces.The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a non-partisan organization that seeks to publish well-argued, policy-oriented articles on American foreign policy and national security priorities.
- Topic:
- Islamic State, Autonomy, and Referendum
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan
15. Algerian Constitutional Amendments Create Conditions for Military Intervention in Libya
- Author:
- Jacob Lees Weiss
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- On November 12, the Algerian Constitutional Council confirmed amendments that were approved in the country’s November 1 referendum, which allow the Algerian People’s National Armed Forces (APN) to participate in operations outside the country’s borders (El Khabar, November 12). Missions must be approved by a two-thirds majority in each parliamentary chamber and be within the framework of the objectives of the UN, the African Union, and the League of Arab Nations (al-Arab, October 25). The constitutional referendum was the flagship project of Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who has sought to distinguish his government from that of his predecessor, Abdelaziz Bouteflika.
- Topic:
- Constitution, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Referendum
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Algeria, and North Africa
16. The mechanics of a further referendum on Brexit revisited: questions for the new parliament
- Author:
- Alan Renwick, Meg Russell, Lisa James, and Jess Sargeant
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Academics from the UCL Constitution Unit examine objectively the options for a further referendum. The chapters in the report explain the following: How a further referendum might come about; The referendum process, and the minimum timetable; The form the question might take; The regulatory framework, and options for improving the quality of debate; The pros and cons of making a referendum legally binding; How and when a further referendum might occur.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, European Union, Brexit, Referendum, and Society
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
17. The future of our shared island: a paper on the logistical and legal questions surrounding referendums on Irish unity
- Author:
- Colin Harvey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The debate on Irish Unity has intensified. Brexit is only one part of this, as more people question the merits of the existing constitutional arrangements. The focus is now shifting to constitutional conversations about how the island is shared in the future, and the timeframe for what is often referred to as a “border poll”. The difficulty remains that there are several unanswered questions about the process, as many interventions understandably concentrate on the merits of this option. We believe that the debate around the referendums must be normalised as momentum builds towards setting out a precise timeframe. In this paper our intention is to examine logistical and legal questions that have thus far been neglected. This paper is therefore drafted with two principal considerations in mind: How can referendums on Irish unity be achieved? How can they be won?
- Topic:
- European Union, Constitution, Brexit, and Referendum
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and Northern Ireland
18. Battle of Ideas: Brexit: a revolution by or against the establishment?
- Author:
- Lisa Mckenzie, Anand Menon, Daniel Moylan, and Waterfield
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Can Brexit be understood as representing a genuinely revolutionary moment in British history, or are there much deeper, longer-term trends that explain the current moment? Speakers included: Lisa Mckenzie, Durham University Professor Anand Menon, UK in a Changing Europe Daniel Moylan, Urban Design London Bruno Waterfield, The Times
- Topic:
- European Union, Brexit, Referendum, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
19. The Bougainville Referendum and Beyond
- Author:
- Ben Bohane
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- As Bougainville prepares for a referendum on independence, Australia must navigate a policy response that acknowledges the history of conflict and colonialism there, Bougainville nationalism, PNG sensitivities, the principles of the guiding Bougainville Peace Agreement and new geostrategic realities to help forge a lasting solution. Bougainville is largely ‘referendum ready’ and its people are expected to vote overwhelmingly for independence in the November referendum. While Bougainville has abundant natural resources and a skilled older generation, as an independent nation it would face many challenges including fiscal self-reliance, consensus on mining issues, unity and political integrity. Australia has a significant stake in the outcome and should step up its engagement to remain a trusted peace and security broker in Melanesia. It should not oppose Bougainville’s independence if that is the result under the referendum and peace process, and should take a leading role in ensuring a peaceful resolution between the parties.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Colonialism, Conflict, Independence, and Referendum
- Political Geography:
- Australia, Papua New Guinea, Bougainville, and Melanesia
20. New Caledonia's Independence Referendum: Local and Regional Implications
- Author:
- Denise Fisher
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- As 30 years of peace agreements come to an end, stability in New Caledonia is now at risk. New Caledonia faces an uncertain future as it prepares for its last local elections under the Noumea Accord, and as it enters a four-year process ending 30 years of peace agreements. The continued stark ethnic divide over independence revealed in the November 2018 referendum, the first of potentially three such votes, revives old tensions and complicates essential discussions about future governance, which will have consequences for France, Melanesian neighbours and the wider region. While strategically Australia benefits from continued French regional engagement, its support should not be at any cost.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Political stability, and Referendum
- Political Geography:
- Australia, Asia-Pacific, New Caledonia, and Melanesia
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