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1. The Global Terrorist Threat Forecast in 2025

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The global terrorist threat remains persistent and pervasive as the world moves into 2025. Armed conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza and destabilisation by both State and non-State actors are redefining international stability. The influence of groups such as Islamic State, al-Qaeda and Iranian-backed militias underscores the enduring risks. Key challenges include geopolitical rivalries, radicalisation and increasingly sophisticated cyber and physical attacks. With the Middle East at the epicentre of escalating tensions and Africa emerging as a new hotspot, coordinated international efforts are essential to prevent and counter threats. States must strengthen cooperation in intelligence, security and strategic foresight to deal with a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous global landscape.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Radicalization, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Collaboration, Threat Assessment, 2023 Gaza War, Transnational Threats, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

2. Radicalization and Regional Instability: Effects of the Gaza War

Author:
Mamoun Fandy
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
As Israel attempts to reestablish its identity as a regional deterrent by destroying Gaza, the effects of its campaign cascade through the region, shifting political alignments, and generating new concerns over radicalization and conflict spillover
Topic:
Radicalization, Deterrence, Instability, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

3. Russia’s wartime ideology: Radicalization, rent-seeking and securing the dictator

Author:
Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Anti-Western propaganda and the indoctrination of citizens, especially young people, have gradually intensified since the early days of Putin’s rule. However, their radicalization during the war is indicative of the regime’s need for manipulative control rather than reflective of broad support for the regime’s worldview. The most significant shift in the Kremlin’s wartime propaganda has been its codification in school education since the summer of 2022. This timing reveals more about the regime’s need to justify the war and its consequences than it does about any consistent long-term strategy. Key actors behind the ideological codification are opportunistically exploiting the current context. Meanwhile, ideological radicals face little opposition, as most citizens show limited interest in their activities. Despite the regime’s indoctrination practices, the indifference of society suggests that the conditions for a strong anti-Western consensus after Putin will be weak. Such a consensus can only emerge if the future regime, like the current one, is able to maintain satisfactory material conditions and a tolerable daily life alongside its ideological views, whatever they may be.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Democracy, Ideology, Post-Soviet Space, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

4. “Co-Radicalization”: A Scientific Lens Proposal to Understand the Social Movements in Turkey

Author:
Ayhan Kaya and Metin Koca
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
The term co-radicalization refers to intergroup hostilities leading to conflicts through cycles of reciprocal threat. This article explores the concept of co-radicalization in violent and non-violent terms and its potential application particularly in Turkey and broadly in the Middle East, a region characterized by ethnic, cultural and religious diversity, as well as socio-economic disparities. Drawing from the social fragmentations recently observed in Turkey, where scientific research on radicalism and co-radicalization is insufficient, the article offers several subjects of scrutiny, including (1) socio-economic co-radicalization between the native and migrant people in the fringes of the urban spaces, (2) the religious norm carriership led by the state institutions and the rise of “Deism” and atheism in response, and (3) the variety of non-violent radical expressions feeding each other, from music to satire. We conclude that the study of co-radicalization should be distinguished from the reductionist approaches to the concept, which tend to take terrorism and radicalism synonymously; the social scientific goal is to gain a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics behind societal divisions.
Topic:
Social Movement, Radicalization, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

5. The Spillover Effect: The Gaza Conflict and Potential Ramifications to the Western Balkans

Author:
Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This report outlines potential security and geopolitical risks for the Western Balkans stemming from the war in Gaza. While none of these security challenges are inevitable, they are possible. Depending on whether the conflict in Gaza continues in its current form or whether it escalates in intensity and number of belligerents, there are at least three potential ramifications for the Western Balkans. The first concerns the potential radicalisation in the local Muslim communities involving anti-Semitism and acts of violence that could disrupt harmony between local religious communities. The second concerns the risk that if the conflict expands to engulf Iran and Hezbollah and potentially other regional actors, there is a risk that this security rivalry between Middle Eastern players like Israel and Iran will spread to the Western Balkans. Thirdly, depending on the geographical scope and duration of the conflict, there is a potentially high risk of a new refugee crisis impacting the region.
Topic:
Security, Radicalization, Geopolitics, Refugees, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans

6. Popular Organizing is the Only Way to Stop Bolsonarismo

Author:
Sabrina Fernandes
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
The essence of the phenomenon tied to Jair Bolsonaro’s rise is extreme, and it is a potent force for radicalizing people towards authoritarian and violent positions.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Violence, Jair Bolsonaro, and Community Organizing
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

7. Exploring trends and research in countering and preventing extremism & violent extremism

Author:
Denis Suljić and Emma Allen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hedayah
Abstract:
Radicalization leading to extremism and violent extremism still threatens global security and safety. The COVID-19 pandemic led to new trends and developments important for experts and practitioners working on preventing and countering extremism and violent extremism to consider in their prevention efforts. Considering the ever-changing landscape of extremism and violent extremism, researchers should regularly assess emerging challenges and shed light on effective preventing and countering extremism and violent extremism strategies and solutions for policymakers and practitioners to draw upon and to understand and respond to new and developing trends. This compilation of research essays spans various topics related to countering and preventing extremism, presented at Hedayah’s International Research Conference in Granada, Spain, in May 2022. The collection of essays intends to share insights from academics and practitioners on their professional experiences and cutting-edge research findings related to the broader efforts in countering and preventing extremism, and serves as a summary of discussions and findings highlighted at the conference. Hedayah’s International Research Conference has consistently aided in expanding research on countering extremism and violent extremism spanning over seven years. First, the conference presents recent, cutting-edge research, considering both academic and practitioner-led findings. This ensures that the presented findings include those with rigorous academic standards and the perspectives of the practitioner community. Second, the conference panelists are invited by Hedayah to contribute to the subsequent Edited Volume to publish their research findings. The Edited Volume ensures that these research results are disseminated beyond the conference attendees, and are made available to a larger network of policymakers, researchers and practitioners attempting to strengthen their activities, research, policies, and programs in this space. Therefore, the conference is designed to cover cross-cutting subjects and overarching themes across different panels, such as gender, youth, and cross-disciplinary challenges and lessons. Hedayah’s seventh Research Conference brought a range of policymakers, practitioners and academic experts together on issues related to countering and preventing extremism and violent extremism. It presented research in a discussion-oriented forum, providing our vibrant and diverse community with the opportunity to engage in meaningful discussions and share novel ideas and suggestions on addressing new and emerging extremist and violent extremist threats, trends, and suggestions on how they could be treated. The sessions, divided across three days, covered diverse themes and topics. The panel that opened the conference discussions focused on the implications of COVID-19 on extremist and violent extremist actors, and efforts to address these new developments and emerging threats. Sessions that followed covered the role of the internet and new technology, the effects of environmental changes on extremism and violent extremism, the global rise of the radical right, and the unceasing threat of ideologically-inspired extremist, violent extremist and terrorist groups. The conference also included in-person and virtual breakout sessions, including a session concentrating on the future directions of the field, and another exploring the ethical challenges of research on preventing and countering extremism, along with innovative methodologies and techniques.
Topic:
Radicalization, Far Right, COVID-19, Countering Violent Extremism, Misogyny, Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), and Eco-Fascism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Naxalism: The Left-Wing Extremist Movement in India

Author:
Rajashri Ghosh
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
After 200 years of bondage, India gained freedom from the British through numerous revolutionary movements in 1947. But, within 20 years of the independence, insurgent movements had started arising against the Indian Government as well. In 1967, the Naxalite insurgency was initiated as a radical protest by the oppressed peasants against the colonial tenancy system retained by the feudal landowners even after the British had left the country for good. The uprising got pinpointed as Naxalism and the rebels as Naxals, as it all started at Naxalbari, a village in the Indian state of West Bengal. Spanning over 50 years, this ongoing movement initially acquired the respect of the general population of India with its radical ideologies of fighting against the oppressor imperialists but soon mutated into a source of terror. A qualitative assessment of the instances taken from secondary sources, such as context-related online journals and blog articles, will help this paper to explain the formation of the contemporary perception of Naxalism as an extreme radical armed revolution and one of the biggest security challenges against the Indian Government.
Topic:
Terrorism, Radicalization, Leftist Politics, Maoism, and Naxalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

9. Global threat landscape 2022

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Three trends will characterise the evolving global terror threat landscape in 2022. First, the cascading implications of the return of the Taliban-al Qaeda alliance to Afghanistan on August 15, 2021. Second, the diffusion of the Islamic State threat from the Levant, notably from Iraqi-Syrian theatre. Third, the online surge of extremist and violent content especially of Islamist and Far Right entities on servers in North America and Europe mobilising and radicalizing especially youth. With lockdowns, partial lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions, the challenges facing government security forces - military, law enforcement and intelligence surged and both in resource allocation for training and mobility for operations hampered their performance and efficacy. The focus on humanitarian challenges by governments during the pandemic was ably exploited by threat groups to expand their support bases or capture territory. On the other hand, a range of ideological and material threats manifested in 2021. Some will institutionalise both in the physical and digital spaces in 2022. With radicalisation and reciprocal radicalisation of Islamists and Far Right threat groups, their networks, cells and personalities will stage attacks.
Topic:
Taliban, Radicalization, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Islamism, and Digital Space
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Syria

10. The Indonesia-Australia partnership to counter radicalism and terrorism in Indonesia

Author:
Ali Maksum and Hafidz Ridha Try Sjahputra
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Indonesia and Australia have always been helpful partners since Indonesian Independence in 1945. However, the relationship was worsened after Bali Bombings in 2002 and 2005 as well as Australian embassy bombing in 2004 that killed many Australians. Thus, using Australian perspective, this article attempts to examine the response of Australian government in dealing with terrorism problems in Indonesia as well as the feedback from Indonesia. The research reveals that given the fact that Australia has many interests in Indonesia added with the geographical proximity, it is naturally urged to resolve the terrorism issues in Indonesia. The study found out that Australia proposed some programs to Indonesia due to its domestic interest and international factors. At the same time, Indonesia was also the main beneficiary of Australian counter terrorism policy.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Counter-terrorism, Partnerships, and Radicalization
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Australia