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181. Rising Power… To Do What? Evaluating China's Power in Southeast Asia

Author:
Evelyn Goh
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Drawing on China's relations with its relatively weak neighbours in Southeast Asia where we ought to find evidence of China getting other states to do what they otherwise would not have done, this paper asks how and how effectively China has converted its growing resources into influence over other states, their strategic choices and the outcomes of events. First, it adopts the framework of structural and relational power, further disaggregating the latter into persuasion, inducement and coercion as modes of exercising power. Second, it accounts for the reception to power by offering an analytical framework based on variations in the alignment of the extant preferences of the subjects and wielders of power, which determine the degree to which alterations are necessary as part of an exercise of power. The analysis identifies key cases particularly demonstrating three categories of Chinese power: its power as 'multiplier' when extent preferences are aligned; its power to persuade when pre-existing preferences are debated; and its power to prevail in instances of conflicting preferences. It finds that the first two categories of power have been most prevalent, while there have been very few instances where Southeast Asian states have done what they would otherwise not have done as a result of Chinese behaviour. These findings suggest that even though China's power resources have increased significantly, the way in which it has managed to convert these resources into control over outcomes is uneven.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Power Politics
Political Geography:
China and Southeast Asia

182. Strained Alliances: Iran's troubled relations to Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Janne Bjerre Christensen
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This report offers a critical examination of Iran's influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Two points are made: that Iran's top priority is its own regime's survival and its regional policies are directed by its national security concerns. Secondly, that Iran's engagements in Afghanistan are clearly guided by the presence of the US. Iran's predominant interest is in stabilizing Afghanistan, but as long as Afghanistan is neither safe nor stable, Iran will play a double game and engage with its regional neighbours according to the US–Iran equation. Deterrence, counter-containment and competition are the keywords in these complex relations. The report outlines Iran's reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, its political platform and 'soft power', and the bonds of mutual dependency in terms of water rights, refugees and drug trafficking. It examines Iran's alleged military interventions and the reasons for playing this double game. Lastly, the report discusses Iran's tense relationship with Pakistan with regard to both Afghanistan and the troubled region of Baluchistan.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Power Politics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Iran

183. Resurrecting Retrenchment: The Grand Strategic Consequences of U.S. Decline

Author:
Paul MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Many policymakers and pundits contend that U.S. relative power is declining and that this decline will have negative consequences for international politics. They justify this pessimism on the belief that great powers have few options for dealing with acute relative decline. Critics say that retrenchment, a policy of retracting grand strategic commitments in response to a decline in relative power, is a contemptible policy that demoralizes allies and emboldens potential adversaries. Furthermore, domestic interest groups and lobbies look like immovable obstacles with regard to policies designed to harmonize ends with means.
Topic:
Imperialism, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States

184. Sleeping Lions: Tratados internacionales de inversión, conflictos Estado-inversor y acceso a alimentos, tierra y agua

Author:
Javier Perez, Myriam Gistelinck, and Dima Karbala
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
La gestión y el acceso a la tierra y el agua son clave para asegurar la seguridad alimentaria y la reducción de la pobreza. En los próximos años, esta importancia irá en aumento. Sin embargo, estos recursos naturales a menudo se convierten en objeto de importantes conflictos de poder entre empresas, Estados y comunidades. Estos conflictos no tienen lugar en el seno de un vacío institucional, sino que los gobiernos nacionales y las instituciones internacionales son los responsables de diseñar el escenario en el cual operan estos distintos intereses. Las normas nacionales e internacionales permiten a las empresas invertir en tierras, agua y otros recursos naturales tanto en sus propios países como en el extranjero.
Topic:
Security, Poverty, Power Politics, Natural Resources, and Food

185. Cooperating in the Energy Security Regime Complex

Author:
Jochen Prantl
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper investigates the influence of global power shifts on energy security cooperation and examines the existing structure for energy governance. It asserts that a regime complex is likely to be more effective that an integrated regime in governing energy cooperation. It concludes with recommendations on how to enhance cooperation in energy security.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Power Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

186. Identity, Insecurity, and Great Power Politics: The Tragedy of German Naval Ambition Before the First World War

Author:
Michelle Murray
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security Studies
Institution:
Security Studies
Abstract:
Why did Germany pursue naval expansion at the turn of the twentieth century? This question has long puzzled scholars of international security, who consider German naval ambition to be an instance of suboptimal arming—a decision that decreased Germany's overall security and risked the survival of the German state. This article argues that the social desire to be recognized as a world power guided Germany's decision to challenge British naval hegemony. From the beginning of its naval planning, Germany had one clear aim: a powerful fleet of battleships stationed in the North Sea would alter the political relationship with Britain in such a way that it could no longer ignore Germany's claim to world power status. Reconceptualizing Germany's naval ambition as a struggle for recognition elucidates the contradictions at the center of German naval strategy, explaining how the doomed policy could proceed despite its certain failure. The article concludes that the power-maximizing practices of great powers should be seen as an important component of identity construction and an understudied dimension of contemporary security practice.
Topic:
Security and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Britain and Germany

187. Evaluating Governance. Effectiveness and Legitimacy in Areas of Limited Statehood

Author:
Cord Schmelzle
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
While it is widely acknowledged that effectiveness and legitimacy both play an important role in the evaluation of governance, the causal relationship between these two concepts is far from clear. While some theorists hold that there is an inevitable trade-off between the demands of effectiveness and legitimacy, others argue that both qualities are mutually reinforcing. The aim of this paper is to shed light on the relationship between these two standards under conditions of limited statehood. The paper is organized into three sections: In the first section I will define the central concepts of effectiveness and legitimacy. While the main features of the concept of effectiveness are straightforward, the concept of legitimacy is notoriously opaque. In the second section, I will argue that the causal relationship between effectiveness and legitimacy is far more complex than usually assumed. Most scholars describe the connection as a virtuous circle: The more effective a political order or institution is, the more legitimate it is, and the more legitimate it is, the more effective it becomes. While the causal pathway from legitimacy to effectiveness is well understood, this does not hold true for the reverse connection from effectiveness to legitimacy. I will therefore identify four necessary conditions which have to be met in order to make the virtuous circle argument compelling. These are the conditions of (1.) “instrumental legitimacy belief,” (2.) “shared social goals,” (3.) “transparency,” and (4.) “generalization”. Finally, I will argue that these conditions are serious challenges to effective and legitimate governance in areas of limited statehood.
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, Power Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance

188. Medvedev's take on the power vertical: Are the rules of the game changing in Russia?

Author:
Katri Pynnöniemi and Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The political system that Vladimir Putin established during the first decade of the 2000s is often referred to as 'the power vertical'. The term suggests a stable, streamlined and effective centre-led system. Yet, this image does not quite correspond with Russian reality. The system creates inefficiency, encourages corruption and is hostile towards bottom-up political initiative. The current leadership acknowledges that Russian stability is on shaky ground and therefore the system is in need of modernization. The economy is clearly a priority for the leadership: it believes that the political system's modernization should emerge gradually and in a highly controlled fashion from economic achievements. The current system in Russia is hostile to innovation and prone to corruption and therefore Medvedev's modernization plan is unlikely to succeed unless transparency and open competition within the system are considerably enhanced. This will be difficult to achieve because the elite benefits from the current corrupt and non-transparent system where the lines of responsibility are unclear. The West should not expect dramatic changes and radical liberal reforms in Russia. Western actors should, nevertheless, actively support and encourage economic and political reforms in the country and engage with it through international cooperation on specific issues such as anti-corruption policy. By stepping up its engagement with Russia, the West can demonstrate that a prosperous, competitive and modern Russia is also in the interests of the West.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

189. Zimbabwe: Political and Security Challenges to the Transition

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As Zimbabwe enters its second year under a unity government, the challenges to democratic transformation have come into sharp focus. Despite reasonable progress in restoring political and social stability, ending widespread repression and stabilising the economy since February 2009, major threats could still derail the reform process. In particular, resistance of intransigent and still powerful security sector leaders and fractious in-fighting between and within the Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU-PF) and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) must be addressed now. South Africa and other countries in southern Africa – who monitor the accord that guides the transition – must press the parties, and particularly President Robert Mugabe, to see the transition through to a successful conclusion. Donors should back their efforts.
Topic:
Security and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

190. Measuring Geopolitical Power in India: A Review of the National Security Index (NSI)

Author:
Karl Hwang
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This review examines how India perceives its own rise to power by undertaking a detailed analysis of the Indian National Security Index (NSI) for the period from 2003 to 2008. Like other power formulas, the NSI includes various indicators of power, though it is uniquely Indian in that it initially emphasized human development and later included ecology based on a holistic human‐security paradigm. The analysis demonstrates that this holistic approach has now been abandoned in favor of a more conventional one, and that the technical formulas and theoretical concepts of the NSI exhibit various inconsistencies and problems. In particular, one can recognize the absolute need for a unified standard for handling variables in the construction of composite indexes in general.
Topic:
Security, Emerging Markets, Human Welfare, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and India