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2312. Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle
- Author:
- Jon Faust and John S. Irons
- Publication Date:
- 11-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
2313. Military Doctrine and Political Participation: Toward a Sociology of Strategy
- Author:
- Yagil Levy
- Publication Date:
- 01-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Studies of Social Change
- Abstract:
- Wars produce contrasting effects on the state's status in the domestic arena: they bolster its internal control but, at the same time, create opportunities for collective action of which domestic groups can take advantage and weaken state autonomy. As the case of Israel suggests, within the confines of geo-political constraints, states modify their military doctrine to balance the two contradictory impacts. The main purpose of the paper is to lay the foundation for a Sociology of Strategy by drawing on the case of Israel.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
2314. Neo-conservatism: Some Theoretical and Terminological Clarifications
- Author:
- Jesus Velasco
- Publication Date:
- 01-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- The classification of current political tendencies in the United States is sometimes confusing. Since the beginning of Ronald Reagan's first presidential campaign, American journalists and scholars have used indistinctly terms like right, conservatism, neoconservatism, ultraconservatism, extreme right, New Right, etc., to define the different political forces behind Reagan's ascent to the White House. This confusion is evident in the work of John Judis. He believes that Kevin Phillips (a conservative scholar), Paul Weyrich (a New Right activist), Irving Kristol (a neoconservative leader), and William Buckley (a traditional conservative), could all be embraced within the term "conservative" without considering any differences in their theoretical and political position.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
2315. Post-Communist Security Thinking in Russia: Changing Paradigms
- Author:
- Alexander A. Sergounin
- Publication Date:
- 07-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The end of the Cold War, the collapse of the USSR and its Marxist ideology, and the re-emergence of the Russian Federation as a separate, independent entity have compelled Russia to redefine its national interests and make major adjustments in the spheres of both foreign policy and international relations theory (IRT). These enormous tasks, together with an attendant polarisation of opinion on how to deal with them, have pitted Russia's policy makers and experts against one another in a fierce battle of world views. This debate is far from at an end. Neither a new security identity nor a coherent foreign policy strategy have yet been found.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Environment, Government, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
2316. Structural Liberalism:The Nature and Sources of Postwar Western Political Order
- Author:
- G. John Ikenberry and Daniel Deudney
- Publication Date:
- 05-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics, University of Pennsylvania
- Abstract:
- The end of the Cold War has triggered new debates about international relations theory. Most of the attention has been focused on explaining the end of the Cold War. Equally important, however, this epochal development raises new questions about the impact of forty years of East-West rivalry on the relations among the Western liberal democracies. This issue is not simply of passing historical interest because it bears on our expectations about the future trajectory of relations among the great powers in the West. Will the end of the Cold War lead to the decline of cooperative relations among the Western liberal democracies? Will major Western political institutions, such as NATO and the U.S.-Japanese alliance, fall apart? Will "semi-sovereign" Germany and Japan revert to traditional great power status? Will the United States return to its traditional isolationist posture? Our answers to these questions depend upon the sources of Western order: was the Cold War the primary cause of Western solidarity or does the West have a distinctive and robust political order that predated and paralleled the Cold War?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Europe, and Germany
2317. The Path to European Integration
- Author:
- Paul Pierson
- Publication Date:
- 11-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies
- Abstract:
- Many European and American observers of the EC have criticized "intergovernmentalist" accounts for exaggerating the extent of member state control over the process of European integration. This essay seeks to ground these criticisms in a historical institutionalist" account that stresses the need to study European integration as a political process which unfolds over time. Such a perspective highlights the limits of member state control over long-term institutional development. Losses of control result from member state preoccupation with short-term concerns, the ubiquity of unintended consequences, and processes that "lock in" past decisions and make reassertions of member state authority difficult. Brief examination of the evolution of EC social policy suggests the limitations of treating the EC as an institutional "instrument" facilitating collective action among sovereign states. It is more useful to view integration as a path-dependent process that has produced a fragmented but still discernible multi-tiered European polity.
- Topic:
- International Organization, Politics, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- America and Europe
2318. Is Pandora's Box Half-Empty or Half-Full? The Limited Virulence of Secessionism and the Domestic Sources of Disintegration
- Author:
- Stephen M. Saideman
- Publication Date:
- 11-1995
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Is secession contagious? If so, can it be contained or quarantined to limit its spread? These two questions must be addressed to understand the challenges posed by ethnic divisions within and between states today. The end of ideological competition between the United States and the Soviet Union has not ushered in an era of global peace, but instead a period characterized by ethnic conflicts within many states. The coincidence of the disintegrations of the Soviet, Yugoslav, and Czechoslovak federations suggests that secession does spread with potentially nasty consequences.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism, Politics, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- United States and Eastern Europe
2319. Mission to Haiti #3
- Author:
- Robert A. Pastor
- Publication Date:
- 03-1995
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Independent candidates and representatives from 27 political parties contested more than 2,000 municipal and Parliamentary postions in elections in Haiti on June 25, 1995. In the pre-election period, the Provisional Election Council (CEP) judged the qualifications of nearly 12,000 candidates, and disqualified about one thousand without explanations. The process was so prolonged and contentious that the ballots had to be changed up to the last days, and there were numerous mistakes. The CEP's erratic performance led three parties to boycott the election, and virtually all to question the CEP's judgment and independence. The unresponsiveness of the CEP to legitimate complaints raised by the political parties sowed seeds of distrust in the electoral process.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United Nations, Latin America, and Caribbean
2320. Nicaraguan Property Disputes
- Publication Date:
- 04-1995
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- With the first peaceful transfer of power from one political party to another in Nicaraguan history in 1990, Nicaraguans ended a decade-long civil war and began a process of reconciliation. Within the space of a year, the army was shrunk from 96,000 to less than 15,000 troops, the Nicaraguan Resistance was demobilized, and new forms of dialogue between previously hostile groups emerged. Nevertheless, economic recovery remained elusive in the face of hyperinflation, high expectations and competing demands among organized groups, and a lack of confidence among investors and producers. Disputes over property have played a significant role in Nicaragua's recent political and economic experience, and are a fundamental factor in its future economic recovery and political reconciliation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Law, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Central America