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371. Misinterpreting Ethnic Conflicts in Africa

Author:
Clement Mweyang Aapengnuo
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Ethnicity is typically not the driving force of African conflicts but a lever used by political leaders to mobilize supporters in pursuit of power, wealth, and resources. Recognizing that ethnicity is a tool and not the driver of intergroup conflict should refocus our conflict mitigation efforts to the political triggers of conflict. Ethnic thinking and mobilization generally emerge from inequitable access to power and resources and not from an intrinsic hatred. Over the medium to long term, defusing the potency of ethnicity for political ends requires a systematic civic education strategy that helps build a common national identity, which so many African countries still lack.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism, and Ethnic Government
Political Geography:
Africa

372. Conflict Prevention in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific

Author:
Elsina Wainwright
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The Asia Pacific has experienced thirty years without interstate conflict, but a number of long-running, low-level internal conflicts continue in Southeast Asia, and several South Pacific states have recent experience of instability. Tensions also remain at the inter-state level, and shifting power dynamics between the US, China, and other Asian states have the potential to foster regional instability. In addition, a raft of transnational threats, such as resource scarcity and climate change, are creating new uncertainty.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States, China, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

373. Fuel for Conflict or Balm for Peace? Assessing the Effects of Hydrocarbons on Peace Efforts in Algeria

Author:
Miriam Shabafrouz
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores the use of hydrocarbon revenues in post-conflict Algeria. While the bloody years of the 1990s now seem to be over, recurring terror attacks and the ongoing state of emergency leave room for doubt that a situation of stable peace has been achieved yet. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of post-conflict peace-building efforts in Algeria and identify ways of improving these measures. The resources, which are mainly controlled by the central state, can have positive and negative effects on the political economy: they can enhance growth and possibilities for the distribution of wealth, but the dependency on them makes the whole economy vulnerable to crises. Analysing the economic (and other) causes of the outbreak of the intra-state war in 1992 and the reasons for its escalation and its fading out can be revealing when assessing the extent to which critical conditions have or have not been addressed by recent and current peace‐building efforts. The author's analysis reveals that the measures taken by the government—such as implementing a programme of national reconciliation, the stimulation of certain sectors of the economy and the resolute reduction of foreign debt—all aim at stabilization and have all been driven by hydrocarbon income to a large extent. However, the recent rise and sudden drop in the price of oil and gas have both had an effect on the scope of these measures and reveal their limits. Moreover, some of the critical causes of the civil war such as the unfair distribution of revenue, the lack of political participation and destabilizing demographic changes still persist and have largely remained unaddressed. One of the author's concluding assumptions therefore is that it is very likely that the use of resource revenues for conflict prevention and peace‐building will only lead to sustainable results when embedded in full-fledged reforms of Algeria's entire economic and political system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Algeria

374. Bombs and Ballots: Terrorism, Political Violence, and Governance in Bangladesh

Author:
Naureen Chowdhury Fink
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
International initiatives to counter terrorism and militancy have more often than not been directed at the military aspects of such threats, with insufficient attention paid to the specific context—the social, political, and regional dynamics—in which they evolve. In Bangladesh, for example, the combination of development challenges, weak governance, violent politics, and regional tensions has proved a combustible mix. These have prompted fears that the state is growing increasingly fragile and that it may be unable to withstand the threats posed by terrorism and violent religious radicalization over the long term.
Topic:
Political Violence, Terrorism, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

375. From Violence to Moderation: Al-Jama'a al-Islamiya and al-Jihad

Author:
Sarah Grebowski and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Recognition by Egypt's leading Jihadists that violence has failed to achieve political change and in fact has been counterproductive has led them to a remarkable change of course.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

376. War in Saada: From Local Insurrection to National Challenge

Author:
Christopher Boucek
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Yemen's leaders consider their sporadic war against the Houthi rebels a conflict they can win and, in so doing, discourage southern secessionists—a more immediate threat to their hold on power and the nation's territorial integrity. Instead, this war in the North has exposed greater vulnerabilities for the regime, weakened the central government, and emboldened other threats to Yemeni and global stability such as al-Qaeda.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Yemen and Arabia

377. The Political Challenge of Yemen's Southern Movement

Author:
Stephen Day
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Three opposition groups within Yemen are undermining that country's stability. The newest, called the Southern Movement, has been less militant than al-Qaeda or the al-Huthi rebels on the northern border with Saudi Arabia. It began in 2007 and used peaceful means to seek redress of problems rooted in the troubled unification of North and South Yemen in 1990. The creation of the new state has meant problems for residents of the South: issues of national identity, economic grievances, and concerns over access to political power.
Topic:
Political Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

378. What Comes Next in Yemen? Al-Qaeda, the Tribes, and State-Building

Author:
Sarah Phillips
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
News that the failed Christmas Day attack on a U.S. passenger jet was tied to al-Qaeda elements in Yemen prompted questions of whether the fractious Arab state might give rise to a Taliban-style regime. For its part, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has stated its intent to achieve “our great Islamic project: establishing an Islamic Caliphate” but it is vulnerable to the threat that Yemen's tribes may ultimately find its presence a liability.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Taliban, Yemen, and Arabia

379. Côte d'Ivoire: sécuriser le processus électoral

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Already delayed six times, Côte d'Ivoire's presidential election is still some way off. Over two months after President Gbagbo dissolved the Independent Electoral Commission (Commission Électorale Indépendante, CEI) and the government, preparations are at a virtual standstill. The process of electoral identification already carries serious risks of violence. Armed groups and militias, the resurgence of xenophobic language and a challenging socio-economic situation make for an explosive environment, threatening the stability of this key West African country. Unless its politicians urgently meet the challenge of escalating tensions, accelerate electoral preparations and desist from hate speech, and unless regional, UN and other international partners establish the operational, political and security mechanisms necessary to prevent violence, the peace process could very well collapse, with dramatic consequences for the country and its neighbours. Côte d'Ivoire's civil war erupted in September 2002, when a section of the army attempted a coup d'Etat. The coup failed, but the insurgent soldiers took control of the northern part of the country. With the arrival of young intellectuals and under the leadership of former student leader Guillaume Soro, they articulated grievances that northerners were treated as second class citizens. An on-and-off war continued until the signing of the Ouagadougou Political Agreement in March 2007, which considerably calmed the situation. Since the middle of 2009, however, tensions have risen again over the electoral process and the question of Ivorian identity and nationality.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

380. Cameroon: Fragile State?

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Cameroon's apparent stability in a turbulent region cannot be taken for granted. The co-option of elites through the distribution of state largesse, and the emigration of many educated young people provide a certain safety valve for tensions, but the failure of reform and continued poor governance mean people no longer believe in the rule of law or peaceful political change. Multiple risks of conflict exist in the build-up to presidential elections in 2011 and beyond. This background report, Crisis Group's first on Cameroon, analyses the historical roots of the current impasse.
Topic:
Political Violence, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon