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302. Holding Libya Together: Security Challenges After Qadhafi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As the recent upsurge of violence dramatically illustrates, the militias that were decisive in ousting Qadhafi's regime are becoming a significant problem now that it is gone. Their number is a mystery: 100 according to some; three times that others say. Over 125,000 Libyans are said to be armed. The groups do not see themselves as serving a central authority; they have separate procedures to register members and weapons, arrest and detain suspects; they repeatedly have clashed. Rebuilding Libya requires addressing their fate, yet haste would be as perilous as apathy. The uprising was highly decentralised; although they recognise it, the local military and civilian councils are sceptical of the National Transitional Council (NTC), the largely self-appointed body leading the transition. They feel they need weapons to defend their interests and address their security fears. A top-down disarmament and demobilisation effort by an executive lacking legitimacy would backfire. For now the NTC should work with local authorities and militias – and encourage them to work with each other – to agree on operational standards and pave the way for restructured police, military and civilian institutions. Qadhafi centralised power without building a central state. His successors must do the reverse.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Africa
303. Disrupting the Supply Chain for Mass Atrocities
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- Mass atrocities are organized crimes. Those who commit genocide and crimes against humanity depend on third parties for the goods and services—money, matériel, political support, and a host of other resources—that sustain large-scale violence against civilians. Third parties have supplied military aircraft used by the Sudan Armed Forces against civilians, refined gold and other minerals coming out of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and ensured a steady flow of arms into Rwanda. Governments seeking to prevent atrocities cannot afford a narrow and uncoordinated focus on the perpetrators of such violence. Rather, an effective strategy must include identifying and pressuring third-party enablers— individuals, commercial entities, and countries—in order to interrupt the supply chains that fuel mass violence against civilians.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Crime, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Rwanda
304. Côte d\'Ivoire : poursuivre la convalescence
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- En dépit d\'une nette amélioration, la situation de la Côte d\'Ivoire reste fragile. Le transfèrement à La Haye de l\'ancien président Laurent Gbagbo inculpé par la Cour pénale internationale (CPI), douze jours seulement avant les élections législatives du 11 décembre 2011, a alourdi l\'atmosphère politique. Au lendemain de ces élections marquées par une très forte abstention, le pays est toujours exposé à de sérieuses menaces. La faiblesse et le déséquilibre de l\'appareil de sécurité et l\'exercice d\'une justice à deux vitesses confortent les extrémistes dans leurs convictions et constituent les deux principaux défis que le pouvoir doit relever dans les prochains mois. Si le vote s\'est déroulé dans le calme, la campagne qui l\'a précédé a été marquée par des incidents qui ont rappelé que la violence politique est toujours d\'actualité. L\'installation d\'une nouvelle Assemblée marque une nouvelle étape dans la normalisation, mais le pays n\'est pas pour autant sorti de l\'ornière.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Corruption, Government, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Africa
305. Waging Peace: ASEAN and the Thai-Cambodian Border Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia that caused dozens of casualties and displaced thousands have challenged the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to finally turn its rhetoric on peace and security into action. Cambodia's successful attempt to list the Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage Site came against the backdrop of turmoil in Thai politics after the 2006 coup that deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thai pro-establishment movements used this issue to whip up nationalist sentiments against Cambodia as they tried to topple the Thaksin-backed government. The emotionally charged campaigns halted border demarcation and sparked a bilateral conflict. In early 2011, the dispute turned into the most violent clash yet between ASEAN's members, testing its historical commitment to non-aggression and prompting it to get involved. This has raised expectations that it might live up to its stated aspiration to keep peace in its own region. As yet, however, while its engagement set important precedents, it has no significant achievements. More robust diplomacy and leadership are still needed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Cambodia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia
306. The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention: A Primer
- Author:
- Paul Romita
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- At a recent conference on conflict prevention attended by over fifty UN member states, a UN official remarked, “we are living in a conflict prevention moment.” In recent years, there has been a surge of interest and activity related to conflict prevention in the UN system, at the regional level and among member states. While the UN has made great strides in refining peacekeeping doctrine and strategy, it has also made significant progress in its political response and preventive activities in recent times. In 2007, the Department of Political Affairs (DPA) established a mediation support unit “to plan and support mediation efforts in the field.” In late 2008, DPA also secured member-state support to create forty-nine additional posts; it now has approximately 270 staff members. While this was less than half of the number of new posts requested by the department, it did help desk officers to more substantially engage on conflict prevention and good-offices work in their portfolio countries. The UN Office in West Africa (UNOWA) has played a critical preventive role in recent crises in Mauritania and Guinea. A UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) was also established in March 2011 to “assist member States and sub-regional organizations in consolidating peace and preventing future conflicts.” In recent years, the African Union (AU) has been an influential mediator in high-profile cases, notably in Kenya (2008) and Sudan (2010–2011). Among the UN membership, especially among African member states, statements calling for the need to strengthen conflict-prevention tools are now consistently voiced. The Security Council, which now holds monthly “horizon scanning” sessions to discuss emerging and ongoing crises, appears to be a part of this trend.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Guinea, and Mauritania
307. Care and Support of Male Survivors of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence
- Author:
- Michael Peel, Wynne Russell, Alastair Hilton, Lizle Loots, and Liz Dartnall
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
- Abstract:
- The world is increasingly aware that armed conflict and sexual violence against women and girls often go hand in hand. However, armed conflict also brings danger of sexual violence for men and boys. Male survivors of sexual violence are less likely than women and girls to disclose assaults (Callender and Dartnall 2011), with the result that such violence is "vastly under-represented" in official statistics (WHO 2002: 154). Nevertheless, sexual violence against men and boys—including rape, sexual torture and mutilation, castration, sexual humiliation, forced incest and forced rape, and sexual enslavement—is a pervasive feature of armed conflicts around the globe. It can emerge in any form of conflict—from interstate wars to civil wars to localised conflicts—and in any cultural context (Russell 2008).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Gender Issues, Human Rights, War, and Sex Trafficking
308. Global Review of National Prevention Policies
- Author:
- Lizle Loots, Liz Dartnall, and Rachel Jewkes
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
- Abstract:
- Reducing and preventing sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) has been recognised as a key strategy to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by the year 2015. SGBV hampers countries' efforts to eradicate poverty as it decreases productivity and can deprive young girls of an education (World Health Organisation, 2005b). The consequences of sexual violence may carry over generations, influencing the development and progress of individuals, families, communities, societies and countries over time (Morrison, Quadara Boyd, 2007; Ellsberg, 2006; United Nations Development Fund for Women, 2002). Primary prevention of sexual violence can save both lives and money (WHO/LSHTM, 2010). Policies and guidelines on how best to prevent sexual violence from occurring should therefore form a key part of national government gender violence programmes. The extent to which countries have policies on rape prevention is unknown. Moreover, evidence on what works in the area of prevention and sexual violence is limited, particularly in developing countries.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Gender Issues, Health, Human Rights, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
309. Do Failed States Produce More Terrorism: Initial Evidence from the Non-Traditional Threat Data (1999-2008)
- Author:
- Bridget L. Coggins
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Today, Americans are more threatened by weak and failed states than they are by the strong. Or so we believe. A growing developed-world consensus sees failed states as the preeminent global threat. But that consensus - and any new security policy derived from it - rests upon an uncertain foundation; insights into the nature and intensity of threats emanating from failed states remain surprisingly tentative and unsystematic. Using new panel data on state weakness, failure and terrorism (1999-2008), this study examines the relationship between internal anarchy and terror. Among the so-called non-traditional threats, terrorism has received by far the most scholarly and policy attention, but the literature is too incoherent to draw any reliable conclusions regarding internal weakness' influence on a country's likelihood to generate terrorism.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Post Colonialism, Terrorism, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- America
310. Preventive Diplomacy: Regions in Focus
- Author:
- Francesco Mancini
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Preventive diplomacy—conceived by Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold in the mid-1950s and revitalized in the early 1990s by Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali—is a vital instrument in the United Nations' conflict-prevention toolkit. While the responsibility for preventing conflict and its escalation ultimately lies with countries themselves, the UN has played an indispensable supporting role since its establishment and will continue to do so.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Diplomacy, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- America, Israel, Latin America, and Southeast Asia