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201. Political Unrest in Venezuela

Author:
Patrick D. Duddy
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant political unrest and violence that lead to the further curtailment of democracy in the country. Presidential elections are scheduled to take place on October 7, 2012. President Hugo Chavez is in the midst of a tough reelection campaign against Henrique Capriles Radonski—the young and energetic governor of the state of Miranda–– who enjoys multiparty support and appears to have a better chance of defeating the incumbent than earlier challengers.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Latin America and Venezuela

202. Zimbabwe: An Opportunity for Closer U.S.-South Africa Relations

Author:
John Campbell
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
As Zimbabwe moves closer to elections, the prospect for political violence, even civil war, grows. President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are wrangling over a new constitution and the timing of upcoming elections. The eighty-eight-year-old Mugabe is suffering from cancer and wants elections soon to ensure his "liberation" legacy. At the same time, Mugabe-allied military factions, flush with off-the-books cash from Marange diamonds mined in the eastern part of the country, are mobilizing to stay in power when Mugabe dies. Political murder is on the upswing and Zimbabwe is as tense and divided now as it was during the run-up to the violent 2008 elections.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

203. Go Long: Six Actions to Structurally Address Organized Violence

Author:
J. Brian Atwood and Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Contemporary organized violence has evolved beyond the now rare interstate conflicts that marked the first half of the twentieth century, and even beyond the intrastate conflicts of the 1990s that tended to feature a government and a rebel group. Organized violence is a broad notion that refers to the use or threatened use of force by groups to inflict injury, death, or psychosocialharm. In this brief we focus on forms of organized violence that have a significant international impact and are most likely to trigger an international response as a result.
Topic:
Political Violence, Crime, Development, Health, Peace Studies, United Nations, War, and Narcotics Trafficking

204. Beyond Ceasefire: Ending the blockade of Gaza

Author:
Martin Hartberg
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The ceasefire agreed between the Government of Israel and Hamas on 21 November 2012, following the recent military escalation in Gaza and southern Israel, provides an unprecedented opportunity to end the cycle of violence that has affected too many innocent Israeli and Palestinian civilians. In the ceasefire understanding, the parties agreed to negotiate 'opening the crossings' into the Gaza Strip and to put an end to 'restricting residents' free movement and targeting residents in border areas'. It is therefore also a unique chance to once and for all lift the Israeli blockade on Gaza, which has had a devastating impact on the lives and well-being of Gaza's civilian population and on Palestinian development.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, War, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

205. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (I): The Jos Crisis

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since 2001, violence has erupted in Jos city, capital of Plateau state, in Nigeria's Middle Belt region. The ostensible dispute is over the “rights” of the indigene Berom/ Anaguta/Afizere (BAA) group and the rival claims of the Hausa-Fulani settlers to land, power and resources. Indigene- settler conflicts are not new to Nigeria, but the country is currently experiencing widespread intercommunal strife, which particularly affects the Middle Belt. The Jos crisis is the result of failure to amend the constitution to privilege broad-based citizenship over exclusive indigene status and ensure that residency rather than indigeneity determines citizens' rights. Constitutional change is an important step to defuse indigene-settler rivalries that continue to undermine security. It must be accompanied by immediate steps to identify and prosecute perpetrators of violence, in Jos and other parts of the country. Elites at local, state and federal level must also consistently implement policies aimed at reducing the dangerous link between ethnic belonging and access to resources, power and security if intercommunal violence is to end.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Natural Resources, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

206. L'Est du Congo : la rébellion perdue des ADF-Nalu

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Les Forces démocratiques alliées-Armée nationale de libération de l'Ouganda (ADF-N alu) sont un des groupes armés les plus anciens et les moins connus de l'Est de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) et le seul de cette région à être considér é comme une organisation terroriste appartenant à la nébuleuse islamiste d'Afrique de l'Est. S'ils ne constituent pas une menace déstabilisatrice comme le Mouvement du 23 mars (M23), ils tiennent cependant tête à l'armée congolaise depuis 2010. Créé en RDC en 1995 et situé aux confins montagneux de la RDC et de l'Ouganda, ce groupe armé congolo-ougandais fait preuve d'une extraordinaire résilience qui tient à sa position géostratégique, son inse rtion dans l'économie transfrontalière et la corruption de s forces de sécurité. Par con- séquent, avant d'envisager toute nouvelle intervention militaire contre les ADF-Nalu, il convient de faire la part du mythe et de la réalité et de réduire sa base socioéconomique tout en proposant une offre de démobilisation et de réinsertion à ses combattants.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa

207. Threats to Security in the Sahel: The Mali Crisis

Author:
Mohamed Mahmoud Mohamed Salah
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This issue brief provides a view from the Sahel on the current threats to peace and security in the region. As part of its project on peace and security in the Sahel- Sahara region, IPI's Africa Program has partnered with the Mauritania-based think tank, the Centre for Strategies for Security in the Sahel Sahara Region. The Centre 4S was established in June 2011 to help countries in the Sahel take the lead in transforming the region's daunting security and development challenges into opportunities. Originally written in French, this June 2012 research paper from the Centre 4S examines the principal threats to peace and security in the Sahel and their impact on development. It then offers proposals and recommendations for surmounting the current conflicts before presenting possible future scenarios for the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
North Africa

208. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

Author:
Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

209. Mapping Political Violence – The Approaches and Conceptual Challenges of Subnational Geospatial Analyses of Intrastate Conflict

Author:
Alexander De Juan
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The rationale is straightforward and persuasive: intrastate conflicts are by definition subnational phenomena. If we want to understand them fully, it may be wise to refocus our attention from the country level to the subnational level. Where violence is located might inform us as to why it erupts and how it is linked to various political, economic or social factors. The number of statistical geospatial analyses undertaken at the subnational level has been increasing constantly in recent years. Even though such studies have contributed greatly to peace and conflict research, they have come with their own challenges. Most importantly, they often do not adequately consider the theoretical and conceptual implications of switching from conventional cross‐country to subnational analysis; this has led to dubious theoretical arguments and conclusions. Moreover, operationalization and measurement issues often limit these analyses' explanatory power. The paper reviews several geospatial analyses of violent conflict, points out the limitations of the previous research and proposes some potential avenues for improvement.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Political Violence, Economics, and War

210. Arab Spring, Turkish "Summer"? The trajectory of a pro-Western "moderate Islam"

Author:
ees van der Pijl
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The “moderate Islam” that has developed in Turkey could play a role in shaping the outcome of the Arab revolt that began in 2011. The modern Turkish state established by Atatürk after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire had to find ways to integrate Islam politically. Turkey was a late-industrialising country and the Islamic political current tended to have an anti-Western, antiliberal profile on this account. Two tendencies within Turkish political Islam are distinguished: one connecting religion to economic nationalism, the other primarily cultural and willing to accommodate to neoliberalism. The 1980 military coup geared the country to neoliberalism and cleared the way for this second tendency to rise to power through the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of R.T. Erdo ˘gan. For the West and the Gulf Arab states the export of this model to the Arab countries destabilised in the popular revolt would amount to a very favourable outcome. Gulf Arab capital was already involved in the opening up of state-controlled Arab economies, including Syria. Although the situation is still in flux, by following the Turkish model Muslim Brotherhood governments could potentially embrace political loyalty to the West and neoliberal capitalism.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa