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21. Egypt’s Secular Political Parties: A Struggle for Identity and Independence

Author:
Michele Dunne and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Secular political parties in Egypt have always been caught between an overbearing state and a largely Islamist opposition. The brief, chaotic political opening from 2011 to 2013 offered them unprecedented opportunities, but the violence and intense polarization that followed the military coup have put them under more pressure than ever. Formal politics in Egypt is now a tightly controlled game in which no real independence is allowed, but some secular parties might reemerge as contenders should there be another opportunity for free competition.
Topic:
Political Theory and Democracy
Political Geography:
Egypt

22. How Regional Security Concerns Uniquely Constrain Governance in Northeastern Syria

Author:
Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In 2012, when Bashar al-Assad’s regime withdrew most of its security forces from the Jazira in northeastern Syria, it ceded local power to the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing. The PYD replicated past regime behavior, focusing on maintaining a secure hold of this strategic geographical area at the expense of effective governance. This approach has hindered the prospect of building a self-sustained administration. At the same time, outside actors such as Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey, and the United States have inadvertently reinforced the PYD’s security-focused rule while pursuing their own security concerns. Exploring potential avenues to peace and stable governance in Syria requires carefully identifying the interrelated nature of these various actors’ security concerns in the Jazira.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Political Theory, and Governance
Political Geography:
Syria

23. Going to the People—and Back Again: The Changing Shape of the Russian Regime

Author:
Alexander Baunov
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Revolutionary or dynamic regimes around the world tend to encourage supporters to act independently, or even engage in decentralized violence. By contrast, more conservative, static regimes typically discourage and distrust such unplanned, spontaneous demonstrations of support. For most of Russian history, the country’s leaders have employed a top-down political system. When Crimea was annexed in 2014, the Kremlin temporarily allowed more decentralized patriotic activism to rally support, but they soon saw the potential risks and reverted to more centralized political control. Russia’s reinstated traditional conservative rule may seem dull, but, paradoxically enough, its return might prove beneficial to future reformers.
Topic:
Political Theory and Political stability
Political Geography:
Russia

24. Trump Foreign Policy Impact in the Caucasus: Projecting Azerbaijan-USA relations for the next four years and beyond

Author:
Ahmed Alili
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
On 20th January, Donald John Trump, an American businessman and TV entertainer is going to be 45th President of the United States of America (US). This is a hard-to-be comprehended statement by the academic and research communities, who did not expect the result of the US presidential elections to turn out this way. The possibility of Trump’s victory was repeatedly denied by the major research centres, and each scandal encouraged researchers to re-state their predictions on the soon-to-be collapse of the Trump election campaign. Needless to say, these predictions were proven false by the final election results. Nevertheless, in the end, the academic and policy research communities have not produced research on what Trump’s presidency would look like. The same stands true for the foreign governments of the EU, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. In order to figure out who is the new US President and what he can do, the world has entered into a phase of intensive research on Trump. This paper is an attempt to puzzle out Trump’s foreign policy for the Caucasus and Azerbaijan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Theory, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
America and Azerbaijan

25. The Hellish Road to Good Intentions How to Break Political-Criminal Alliances in Contexts of Transition

Author:
Vanda Felbab-Brown
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Large-scale illicit economies and organized crime have received increasing attention from governments and international organizations since the end of the Cold War. The end of the Cold War brought a permissive strategic environment that allowed many states to focus on a broader menu of interests in their foreign policy agendas, such as the fight against drug trafficking and production. The post-Cold War era also exposed the fragility and institutional underdevelopment of many of these states, a deficiency perhaps exacerbated by globalization. At the same time, criminal and belligerent actors with significant power previously obscured by the shadows of Cold War politics were spotlighted by the international community, especially when their activities were associated with intense violence or corruption.
Topic:
Corruption and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. More and Better: Resources Defined Through Property and Exchange

Author:
Art Carden
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Independent Institute
Abstract:
Whether something is a “resource” emerges from its ability to satisfy wants, which in turn emerges from appropriation and exchange. Without taking an object out of the commons, assuming a right over it, and experimenting, we can’t know how much is “enough, and as good.” Appropriation brings objects into a knowledge-generating process that helps us know what “enough, and as good” means. Egalitarian objections to appropriation are also overstated in that the latecomers rather than the original appropriators are the ones who get to enjoy the cornucopia that a society based on private property and exchange has produced. I am grateful to my colleague William Collins and our students in a Jan Term 2016 special topics course at Samford University for conversations and discussions that motivated this paper and to Michael Munger, James Otteson, David Schmidtz, and participants in the “Future of Classical Liberalism” conference at the University of Chicago Law School in May 2016 for comments and suggestions. Seminar participants at Hampden-Sydney College, Geoffrey Lea in particular, also provided useful comments, and students in the 2017 version of the aforementioned Jan Term course provided useful comments as the final version of the paper neared completion. All errors are mine.
Topic:
Political Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. Rebelocracy: A Theory of Social Order in Civil War

Author:
Ana Arjona
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
War zones are usually portrayed as chaotic and anarchic. In irregular civil wars, however, they are often ordered. Furthermore, different forms of order often coexist in areas controlled by the same non-state armed group, where the behavior of both civilians and combatants vary substantially. What explains this variation? In this paper I present a theory of the creation of order in war zones that analyzes the behavior of non-state armed groups, the responses of local populations, and the effect of their interaction on wartime institutions. My central argument is that disorder emerges when armed groups have short time horizons, which usually happens when they fight for control with other warring sides or are undisciplined; under these conditions, they are unlikely to establish a social contract with the local population. When armed groups have a long time horizon, a social contract is established, giving place to a new order. In this new order, armed groups may intervene minimally or broadly in civilian affairs; their choice, I argue, depends on the likelihood of organized civilian resistance, which is, in turn, a function of the quality of pre-existing local institutions, especially those dealing with adjudication of disputes. I also present extensions of the theory that account for variation in the strategic value of territory, variation in local capacity for collective action, and armed groups’ information about local institutions.
Topic:
International Affairs and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. How Policy Legitimacy affects Policy Support Throughout the Policy Cycle

Author:
SIMON MATTI, Sverker Jagers, Simon Matti, and Katarina Nordblom
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg,
Abstract:
We analyze the importance of legitimacy and compare how drivers of public policy attitudes evolve across the policy process consisting of the input (i.e., the processes forgoing acquisition of power and the procedures permeating political decision-making), throughput (i.e., the inclusion of and interactions between actors in a governance system), and output (i.e., the substantive consequences of those decisions) stages. Using unique panel data through the three phases of the congestion tax in the Swedish city of Gothenburg, we find that legitimacy is indeed important in explaining policy support. Moreover, we find a lingering effect where support in one phase depends on legitimacy both in the present and in previous phases. Hence, our study takes us one step further on the road to understand the complicated dynamic mechanisms behind the interactions between policy mak- ing, policy support, and the legitimacy and approval of politicians and political processes. Keywords: Policy, Support, Attitudes, Legitimacy, Policy Cycle, Environment, Congestion Tax
Topic:
Environment and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Sweden

29. Does Party Politicization of Corruption Affect Voter Turnout

Author:
Andreas Bagenholm, Stephan Dahlberg, and Maria Solevid
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg,
Abstract:
In this paper, we argue that the effects of corruption on voter turnout not necessarily have to be negative. We argue that voters’ willingness to participate in elections will increase when parties politicize the issue of corruption in electoral campaigns, as it indicates party responsiveness to voter concerns. We test this claim by using individual-level data from CSES coupled with unique context data on party politicization of corruption in campaigns. Our findings show that higher perceived levels of corruption are associated with lower voter turnout but that the negative effect of perceiving high corruption on turnout is reduced in an electoral context where corruption is politicized. The results thus show that if corruption is not politicized, individuals’ corruption perceptions exert a significant negative impact on turnout. By politicizing anti-corruption measures, political parties are acting policy responsive and by that they are also affecting voters’ decision whether to vote or not.
Topic:
Politics, Political Theory, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand

30. Making Sense of Corruption Perceptions: Who to Ask (and About What?) - Evidence from Iceland

Author:
Gissur Ólafur Erlingsson and Gunnar Helgi Kristinsson
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg,
Abstract:
The extent of corruption in Iceland is highly contested. International corruption measures indicate a relatively small amount of corruption, while domestic public opinion suggest a serious corruption problem. Thus, uncertainty prevails about the actual extent of corruption and whose perceptions to rely on. This problem is relevant for corruption research in general. Perceptions are increasingly used as proxies for the actual levels of corruption in comparative research. But we still do not know enough about the accuracy of these proxies or the criteria they must meet in order to give depend- able results. In fact, radical differences exist concerning evaluations of perceptions between those who believe in unbiased learning and those believing perceptual bias to be widespread. The purpose of this article is, therefore, to attempt to gauge which factors may influence how perceptions of corruption are shaped and why differences in corruption perceptions between different groups may be so pronounced. We present findings from original survey data from three parallel surveys – among the ‘public’, experts, and ‘municipal practitioners’ – conducted in Iceland in 2014. Expecta- tions based on the perceptual bias approach are tested, indicating that perceptions may be affected by (1) information factors, (2) direct experience of corruption and (3) emotive and/or ideological fac- tors. The validity of perception measures should be considered with this in mind. Domestic experts are likely to be well informed and avoid perceptual bias to a greater extent than other groups. Our examination of the Icelandic case suggests that the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) tends to underestimate corruption problems in ‘mature welfare states’, such as Iceland, whilst the general public tends to overestimate it.
Topic:
Corruption and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Iceland