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1. Social protection for Mozambique’s elderly: History, structure, and potential effectiveness

Author:
Sara Almeida, Hanna Berkel, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, and Telça Massingue
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria— programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. We estimate that in the best case with zero targeting errors, the PSSB-Elderly programme reaches two-thirds of its target group. However, significant regional disparities persist, including undercoverage in poorer regions. Additionally, we document substantial delays in payments since 2023, as well as various inaccuracies in the beneficiary registry. These findings underscore the importance of simple and robust designs for social protection in resource-constrained contexts. They also suggest that expanding programme coverage towards a quasi-universal subsidy in high-poverty locations merits serious consideration.
Topic:
Poverty, Public Policy, Pension, and Payment Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

2. Exploring the Impact of Behavioural Factors and Personality Traits on Private Pension System Participation: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:
Can Verberi and Muhittin Kaplan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study aims to investigate the effects of personality traits, in addition to basic financial literacy, private pension literacy and behavioural factors on Private Pension System (PPS) participation using machine learning algorithms. The PPS participation model was trained using both random forest and LightGBM algorithms, and the contributions of model inputs in the prediction of pension participation were interpreted using the Tree SHAP algorithms with swarmplots. The data employed in the empirical analysis is survey data collected from the Şırnak province of Türkiye with a sample size of 449. The findings of the study shows that: (i) PPS participation is more likely for females and middle-aged people; (ii) High basic financial literacy has a negative impact on PPS participation; (iii) Extraversion is the key personality trait affecting PPS participation; (iv) Advanced pension literacy has more impact on participation than simple pension literacy: (v) Present-fatalistic tendency is key behavioural factor and it negatively affects PPS; (vi) Present-hedonistic, conscientiousness, future-time orientation, and locus of control tendencies increase PPS participation. Furthermore, the distribution of colours in LightGBM has a greater degree of uniformity in both directions compared with the random forest algorithm. Finally, to increase PPS participation, the results of the study suggest the implementation of the following policy measures: Tailored pension literacy programmes can help to increase pension participation rates. Incentives should be created to prevent narrow-minded behaviour and establish a sense of protection and control around PPS, targeting middle-aged individuals and women.
Topic:
Economics, Behavior, Pension, Machine Learning, and Personality
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

3. A reform option for pension fund contribution as tax expenditure in South Africa

Author:
Ada Jansen, Winele Ngobeni, and Wynnona Steyn
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
South Africa has a progressive broad-based personal income tax system with relatively few tax expenditures. The two most important are the medical contribution plus additional tax credits for medical expenses, and the deductions allowed for retirement contributions. A pertinent question for tax reform in South Africa is whether redistributive gains can be achieved by restructuring expenditures in the personal income tax system. This paper considers the redistributive implications of converting the tax deduction for retirement contributions to a tax credit. This would build on the gains achieved by introducing a medical tax credit system in 2012. We analyse the tax revenue gains/losses of income groups and in total in terms of distributional effects and progressivity outcomes using a static microsimulation model based on data for the 2019/20 tax year. We find a high concentration of taxpayers in terms of taxable income and retirement contributions. The concentration of contributions is highly skewed towards lower- and middle-income earners, whose annual contribution amounts are low compared with higher-income earners. We recommend a conversion rate that considers the current distribution of taxpayers contributing to retirement funds. Converting the pension contribution deduction to a tax credit would raise additional revenue and make the tax system more progressive, benefiting low-income earners with marginal tax rates of less than the proposed conversion rate. The revenue gained would provide increased fiscal space to fund social expenditure or reduce government debt. Further distributional and behavioural analyses are needed on low-income earners and those earning below/above the minimum tax threshold, to refine understanding of the impact on low-and middle-income earners’ contributions to retirement funds.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Tax Systems, and Pension
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

4. The Wellbeing Effects of an Old Age Pension: Experimental Evidence for Ekiti State in Nigeria

Author:
María Laura Alzua, Natalia Cantet, Ana C. Dammert, and Damilola Olajide
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Many countries in the developing world have implemented old-age pensions. Evidence of the impact of such policies on the elderly in sub-Saharan Africa, however, is scarce. We provide evidence from a randomized evaluation of an unconditional old-age pension targeted at the elderly in Ekiti State, Nigeria. Our findings show that treated beneficiaries self-report better quality of life and a more stable mental health. We also provide evidence of spillover effects on the labor outcomes of other household members and of household savings patterns as well as support for interventions aimed at improving the welfare of elderly poor citizens and other household members.
Topic:
Health, Developing World, Aging, Pension, and Well-Being
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Sub-Saharan Africa

5. Challenges of Georgia’s Pension System

Author:
Jaba Urotadze
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
In 2018, a mandatory funded pension model (second pillar) was introduced in Georgia. At present, the Georgian pension system has three pillars, but the reform does not apply to current pensioners. If society does not trust all three pillars, the chances of reversing the pension reform will rise for two reasons. First, the replacement rate from the first pillar (state redistributive pension) is much lower than in any of the OECD member states. Second, for the majority of participants of the second pillar, pension payments will start in 20-25 years’ time. Such a long period creates uncertainty for many about whether long-term economic growth will be achieved, which in turn would make possible an adequate level of retirement income. This paper attempts to identify means of increasing replacement rates for the state redistributive pension and coverage of the voluntary funded third pillar. The research provides recommendations to enhance the Georgian pension system.
Topic:
Reform, Social Services, Pension, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Europe and Georgia

6. Organizing Old Age Pensions for India’s Informal Workers: A Case Study of a Sector-Driven Approach

Author:
M.R. Narayana
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
About 88 percent of India’s total labor force is composed of informal (officially labeled “unorganized”) workers. As many as 388 million such workers lack old age income security by way of a pension system. The Atal Pension Yojana (APY) is the latest contributory, national-level old age pension scheme for unorganized workers, with an entry age of 18–40 years. In other words, all current unorganized workers above the age of 40 are excluded. How could a national pension system viably guarantee equal pension benefits to all current unorganized workers? This paper considers how such a system might work by offering a case study of a non-contributory pension scheme for building and other construction workers in Karnataka State, India. The results indicate that this state-level pension scheme, fully funded by sector-specific receipts, is financially viable and sustainable with high levels of coverage and adequacy. The robustness of these results is shown via sensitivity analyses of discount rates, inflation rates, and growth rates of specific purpose tax collections. Additional analyses outline the scenarios under which pension benefits could be extended to all informal workers in the sector studied.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Work Culture, Unions, and Pension
Political Geography:
India and Asia

7. Are Survivor Pensions Still Needed?

Author:
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
This policy brief summarises the findings assembled in OECD (2018) “Are survivor pensions still needed?”, Pensions Outlook, Chapter 7. It describes survivor pension schemes in OECD countries: expenditures on survivor pensions the number of recipients and the average level of benefits, details about eligibility rules and benefit determination across countries
Topic:
Governance, Social Services, Economic Development, Pension, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. The Battle Over Private Pensions

Author:
Luca Barbone
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"Funded, compulsory pension funds are under attack in Europe and beyond. But are recent policy actions likely to improve the lot of future pensioners, or will they turn out to be short-term politically-motivated fixes that ultimately make life harder?"
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Social Policy, and Pension
Political Geography:
Europe

9. Pension Reform in China

Author:
Felix Salditt, Peter Whiteford, and Willem Adema
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
China is currently in the process of developing the largest pension system in the world, and it is doing this at a time of unparalleled economic and demographic transition. The central government has followed a step-by-step approach to develop a system that can accommodate a rapidly aging society within a rapidly growing, but still largely underdeveloped economy. This paper analyses how far the process of creating a national old age insurance system had proceeded by the end of 2006. It provides a detailed description of this system and an assessment of to what degree it has so far achieved ?its primary goal of social security for more people?
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Welfare, and Pension
Political Geography:
China and Asia

10. Pension Reform in Bolivia: A Review of Approach and Experience

Author:
Federico Escobar and Osvaldo Nina
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
The Bolivian pension reform eliminated the old publicly managed pay-as-you-go system and introduced a fully-funded system. The pension reform was highly influenced by the Chilean reform, adopting a second pension component pillar, based on contributions to individual accounts in pension funds, which are managed by decentralized pension-fund management companies and regulated and supervised by the government. Moreover, the new system has followed the substitutive model, where all contributors to the old system, with no exceptions, were automatically transferred to the new one, while those already retired under the old system continued to receive their pensions from the government. The unique feature of the Bolivian pension reform program was its link to the Capitalization. Under this process the six principal state-owned enterprises were capitalized by foreign companies, and the Bolivian government retained 50% of the shares in the capitalized companies. These shares went into a Collective Capitalization Fund, which is managed by the new pension funds, and the dividends are used to finance the BONOSOL program, which is a universal old age income support to all Bolivians 65 and older.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Public Policy, and Pension
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia