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552. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
553. Northern Ireland — Ulster Prospects
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The political outlook in Northern Ireland has, at least in the short term, been transformed by the political document released by the British and Irish governments and the subsequent statement issued by the IRA. This involves the exchange of a detailed timetable towards the implementation of the Good Friday agreement — including reform of police and security arrangements in the province — for a commitment from the IRA that at least part of their weaponry can be subject to external inspection. This bargain is likely to be enough to permit devolution to be restored shortly. The Northern Ireland peace process has been at an impasse since the British government suspended the operation of devolved institutions on February 11. It did so because the IRA had offered no clear indication as to how it might initiate the process of arms decommissioning — a situation that left Ulster Unionist leader and First Minister David Trimble extremely exposed in his own party. The narrow margin by which Trimble was re-elected leader by the Ulster Unionist Council in March, and that body's further insistence that the proposed reform of Northern Ireland's police force — the Royal Ulster Constabulary — be diluted before devaluation was restored, appeared to plunge the peace process into a state of permafrost.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland
554. Northern Ireland: Impasse
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Ulster Unionist Council re-elected David Trimble as its leader on Saturday but by an unexpectedly narrow majority of 57% to 43%. The party also voted to retain the name and insignia of the Royal Ulster Constabulary — the predominantly Protestant police force in the province — a precondition, along with an IRA commitment to decommissioning, a precondition for restructuring an all-party executive that was suspended two months ago. These are impractical terms for negotiations. The Good Friday agreement is now functionally defunct.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ireland
555. Northern Ireland--Cooperation Ceasefire
- Author:
- Oxford Analytica
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The IRA announced last night that it was suspending all cooperation with the International Commission on Decommissioning and withdrawing all proposals that it had previously placed before it. Tony Blair, the UK prime minister, and Bertie Ahern, his Irish counterpart, will meet today amid a crisis atmosphere. While there is no immediate prospect of an outright return to violence by the IRA, the Good Friday agreement, if not the peace process itself, is at risk.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland
556. From Rhetoric to Policy: Towards Workable Conflict Prevention at the Regional and Global Levels — Report on a Workshop
- Author:
- David Carment, Albrecht Schnabel, and Abdul-Rasheed Draman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This piece constitutes a report of the workshop “From Rhetoric to Policy: Towards Workable Conflict Prevention at the Regional and Global Level” held at INSTRAW, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic from December 14-16, 1998. Jointly organised by the United Nations University and the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, the workshop drew participants from the UN system, the academic community and practitioners in the field. The workshop, which represents the second stage of a general project aimed at 'Translating Rhetoric into Policy,' focussed on examining training needs for conflict prevention through the involvement of local actors.
- Topic:
- Security, Peace Studies, and United Nations
557. The Pugwash Newsletter: Missile Defense: At Sea?
- Author:
- Jeffrey Boutwell and George Rathjens
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Abstract:
- As we went to press, the election of a new US President was still undecided. More than a week after 100 million Americans went to the polls, the ultimate margin of victory for either George W. Bush or Al Gore appeared to hinge on several hundred Florida votes. Whoever does take office on January 20, the next American President (and Commander in Chief), the man with ultimate authority over the world' s largest nuclear arsenal, will begin his term in office in the most politically tenuous position of any American president in perhaps a century.
- Topic:
- Government, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, and War
- Political Geography:
- America
558. The European Union and the Middle East Peace Process
- Author:
- Gerald M. Steinberg
- Publication Date:
- 11-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Europe, both in terms of the individual states and collectively through the 15-member European Union, seeks to play an active role in the Middle East peace process. There are many reasons for this - substantive, political, and symbolic.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
559. The Israeli Elections: Another Turning Point?
- Author:
- Alan Dowty
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- The 1999 Israeli elections confirm the emergence of a more centrist Israeli politics A “national unity government” emerging from the elections is a distinct possibility Though the peace process was not a major issue, the outcome will be a renewal of peace talks Deals on both the Palestinian and Syrian fronts may be closer to realization than is generally realized.
- Topic:
- Government, Peace Studies, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria
560. Ethnic Conflict in South Asia
- Author:
- P. Sahadevan
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- A tumultuous region with a common cultural background and shared political experience, South Asia occupies a prominent place in the global map of ethnic conflict. Many groups have fiercely fought with each other, laid siege on the state, frustrated its nation-building efforts, and burnt bridges to capture the larger consciousness of the international community. In comparison, the region is unique in many ways from the standpoint of ethnicity, use of violence and approach to peace. First, it is one of the world's most complex regions with multi-ethnic societies, characterized by striking internal divisions along linguistic, regional, communal and sectarian lines, but externally linked to one another across national boundaries. Yet, multiculturalism or pluralism as a guiding principle of governance is hardly adopted into the popular political culture of the region. A probable exception is India where different ethnic groups, at least in principle, enjoy 'equally' a modicum of political space for cultural and political autonomy. But there, multicultural arrangements are hindered by the Center's intrusion into the affairs of political institutions, leading to political decay and rupture in center-periphery relations. The manner and the extent of state intervention in promoting the politico-economic interests of groups, therefore, determine the dynamics of conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Ethnic Conflict, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India