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401. Nagorno-Karabakh: A Plan for Peace

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Settlement of the long running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict -- the most significant obstacle to stability in the South Caucasus -- remains elusive, despite more optimistic noises recently from Azerbaijan and Armenia. Eleven years after the 1994 ceasefire, burgeoning defence budgets, increasing ceasefire violations, and continuing demonisation by each side of the other side are ominous signs that time for a peace agreement is running out. But a compromise can now be constructed around an approach that, while addressing all the matters in dispute, leaves the core issue of Nagorno-Karabakh's ultimate status open for later resolution, after other measures have been put in place.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

402. Unifying Darfur's Rebels: A Prerequisite for Peace

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Insecurity in Darfur remains pervasive despite a decline in direct, large-scale fighting between the government and the two main rebel movements, the Sudan Liberation Army/Movement (SLA) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). Maintaining the present uneasy status quo is not the answer. The Khartoum government continues to flout its numerous commitments to neutralise its allied proxy militia, the Janjaweed, and more than two million civilians displaced by the conflict will not return home without a comprehensive political settlement including security guarantees. But the problem is not just on the government side: discord within and between the rebel movements also needs to be resolved if there is to be a chance for sting peace.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

403. Nagorno-Karabakh: Viewing the Conflict from the Ground

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is the most significant obstacle to peace and stability in the South Caucasus. Eleven years into a ceasefire, the parties have been unable to sign a single document bringing them closer to a settlement. Whatever is being done at the internationally mediated negotiations, at ground level resumed war appears a real possibility. There is need to counter the hate propaganda and demonising engaged in by both sides and unlock the potential for confidence building and dialogue between average Azeris and Armenians before the memories of cohabitation fade and the divide becomes virtually unbridgeable.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

404. The Khartoum-SPLM Agreement: Sudan's Uncertain Peace

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) formally ended war between the Khartoum government and the insurgent Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), Africa's longest civil conflict. Yet as SPLM Chairman John Garang was sworn in as 1st Vice-President on 9 July, implementation lags badly. The main obstacles are the old regime's lack of will to embrace genuine power sharing and elections, and ultimately allow a southern self-determination referendum after the six-year interim period and lack of capacity in the South to establish and empower basic structures of governance. To keep the accords on track, the international community must focus on broadening participation and transparency, particularly handling of oil revenues, promote SPLM dialogue with the government-allied militias and quickly deploy the UN peace support mission, whose monitoring operations will be key to breaking the links between Khartoum and those southern proxies.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and United Nations

405. Afghanistan Elections: Endgame or New Beginning?

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Elections for Afghanistan's National Assembly and Provincial Councils are a critical opportunity to achieve a sustainable peace in a country that is still emerging from a quarter century of conflict, created and exacerbated by ethnic, sectarian, regional and linguistic divisions. A representative and functional National Assembly could prove a crucial step in stabilising Afghanistan by allowing diversity of voices in decision-making. Provincial Councils could also help extend the authority of central government by introducing legally approved layers of devolution.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

406. Japan and North Korea: Bones of Contention

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Relations between Japan and North Korea continue to deteriorate due to concerns over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program and past abductions of Japanese citizens. Nearly a decade and a half of efforts at normalising relations between the countries have faltered due to Pyongyang's unwillingness to give up that program or come clean over the abductions. For Japan, normalisation would help preserve regional stability and represent one more step toward closure on its wartime history; for North Korea, it would potentially produce the single greatest economic infusion for reviving its moribund economy. Indeed, the prospect of normalisation with Japan is one of the leading incentives that can be offered to North Korea in a deal to end the North's nuclear programs.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and North Korea

407. Building a Comprehensive Peace Strategy for Northern Uganda

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Peace may yet be possible in Northern Uganda in 2005. Many elements seem to be in place, but they need to be pursued by President Museveni's government in a more comprehensive framework, given stronger international support and - most urgently - be committed to by the rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in the context of a specific process with a clearly definable endgame.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Uganda and North Africa

408. Colombia: Presidential Politics and Peace Prospects

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Álvaro Uribe's quest for re-election in 2006 by amending the constitution so a sitting president can run is a risky endeavour that could weaken democratic institutions. In the face of unabated armed conflict with two insurgent groups, pending demobilisation of thousands of paramilitary fighters, and a flourishing narcotics industry, Colombia must sustain its military and police defences beyond the forthcoming election. However, it must also consolidate the rule of law by ending impunity and make strong headway in rural development and in protecting especially vulnerable groups in order to engage the insurgents on political grounds.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

409. Towards a Lasting Peace in Nepal: The Constitutional Issues

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal is in the grip of a constitutional crisis. The drafters of the 1990 Constitution hailed it as "the best constitution in the world", ending three decades of absolute monarchical rule by enshrining a multi-party system under a constitutional monarchy. But the nine- year-old Maoist insurgency has cruelly exposed the inherent weaknesses in that settlement, and the royal coup of 1 February 2005 has dealt it a near fatal blow. Constitutional change is a necessary, if not sufficient, element for producing lasting peace. The conflict's root causes can only be addressed by structural change in the state and its governance system. Constitutional issues and the political means by which they are dealt with are crucial to a peace process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Asia, Nepal, and Guinea

410. A Crowded Field: Groups of Friends, the United Nations and the Resolution of Conflict

Author:
Tessa Whitifield
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
This paper traces the evolution of groups of Friends—understood as informal groups of states formed to support the peacemaking of the United Nations—from the emergence of Friends of the Secretary-General on El Salvador in 1990, at a moment of post-Cold War optimism regarding the UN's peacemaking capacity, to the more complex (and crowded) environment for conflict resolution of the mid-2000s. The intervening fifteen years saw an explosion of groups of all kinds to support peacemaking, peacekeeping and post-conflict peacebuilding, a mirror of the extraordinary upsurge in a range of efforts to address global security in this period. Analysis of the groups is complicated by the great diversity they represent, including in the impact they have had on the processes with which they have been engaged. Indeed Annex I distinguishes four different categories of groups engaged with the UN in conflict resolution: Friends of the Secretary- General, Friends of a country, Contact groups and Implementation and/or monitoring groups. This paper's primary focus is on groups that have supported UN-led mediation efforts; however its analysis and conclusions embrace both issues specific to UN leadership, and broader considerations of the efficacy of group engagement in conflict management.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and United Nations