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192. The Arab Spring at One
- Author:
- Fouad Ajami
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Throughout 2011, a rhythmic chant echoed across the Arab lands: "The people want to topple the regime." It skipped borders with ease, carried in newspapers and magazines, on Twitter and Facebook, on the airwaves of al Jazeera and al Arabiya. Arab nationalism had been written off, but here, in full bloom, was what certainly looked like a pan-Arab awakening. Young people in search of political freedom and economic opportunity, weary of waking up to the same tedium day after day, rose up against their sclerotic masters.
- Topic:
- Economics and Oil
- Political Geography:
- America, Europe, and Arabia
193. A Farewell to Fossil Fuels
- Author:
- Amory Lovins
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Nearly 90 percent of the world's economy is fueled every year by digging up and burning about four cubic miles of the rotted remains of primeval swamp goo. With extraordinary skill, the world's most powerful industries have turned that oil, gas, and coal into affordable and convenient fuels and electricity that have created wealth, helped build modern civilization, and enriched the lives of billions. Yet today, the rising costs and risks of these fossil fuels are undercutting the security and prosperity they have enabled. Each day, the United States spends about $2 billion buying oil and loses another $4 billion indirectly to the macroeconomic costs of oil dependence, the microeconomic costs of oil price volatility, and the cost of keeping military forces ready for intervention in the Persian Gulf. In all, the United States spends one-sixth of its GDP on oil, not counting any damage to foreign policy, global stability, public health, and the environment. The hidden costs are also massive for coal and are significant for natural gas, too. Even if oil and coal prices were not high, volatile, and rising, risks such as fuel insecurity and dependence, pollution-caused illnesses, energy-driven conflicts over water and food, climate change, and geopolitical tensions would make oil and coal unattractive. Weaning the United States from those fossil fuels would require two big shifts: in oil and electricity. These are distinct -- nearly half of electricity is made from coal, and almost none is made from oil -- but power plants and oil burning each account for over two-fifths of the carbon that is emitted by fossil-fuel use. In the United States, three-fourths of electricity powers buildings, three-fourths of oil fuels transportation, and the remaining oil and electricity run factories. So saving oil and electricity is chiefly about making buildings, vehicles, and factories far more efficient -- no small task.
- Topic:
- Environment and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States
194. China's New Courtship in South Sudan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the wake of Sudan's partition, Beijing has accelerated a re-orientation of its engagement in the resulting two states, most significantly through a new courtship in Juba. China's historical support for Khartoum left a sour legacy in the South, but the potential for mutual economic benefit means a new chapter in bilateral relations is now being written. Balancing new friends in Juba with old friends in Khartoum, however, has proven a delicate dance. China has been drawn into a high-stakes oil crisis between the two, the consequences of which may temper an otherwise rapidly expanding relationship with Juba. A sustainable solution to the crisis cannot be achieved in isolation; North-South stability, mutual economic viability and the security of Chinese interests will also depend on answers to other unresolved political and security issues, including in Sudan's marginalised peripheries. The future of Beijing's dual engagement, and the kind of relationship that emerges in the South, will depend in part on how the oil standoff – and this broader reform agenda – are confronted.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and South Sudan
195. Using US Strategic Reserves to Moderate Potential Oil Price Increases from Sanctions on Iran
- Author:
- Philip K. Verleger
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The United States has initiated new sanctions against Iran aimed at preventing it from collecting revenue from exports of crude oil. The European Union has followed, embargoing all imports of Iranian crude from July 1, 2012 and preventing any firms from entering into new contracts to import Iranian oil after January 23, 2012. The new US and EU sanctions could be the most draconian in many years. If implemented fully, US sanctions would force trading partners to choose between the United States and Iran. EU sanctions would cut Iran off from an important market. These sanctions, while reducing Iranian income, could pose a very serious economic threat to countries that have significant trade with the United States and/or import significant quantities of oil from Iran.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East
196. Promoting Revenue Transparency: 2011 Report on Oil and Gas Companies
- Author:
- Barbara Kowalczyk-Hoyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Transparency International
- Abstract:
- Companies create value for their shareholders, but they should also share this value transparently in the countries in which they work, to promote economic development. There are three ways to promote fair sharing through greater transparency. First, sound, publicly disclosed anti-corruption programmes are essential to prevent individuals from misappropriating revenues. Second, value can be shared with business partners, provided these relationships are fully disclosed and the operating subsidiaries are made known to the public. Lastly, precise information about how much revenue goes to state budgets and how much is retained by companies must be fully disclosed to the public.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Oil, Natural Resources, and Governance
197. Iraq and the Kurds: The High-Stakes Hydrocarbons Gambit
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A simmering conflict over territories and resources in north-ern Iraq is slowly coming to a boil. In early April 2012, the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) suspended its supply of oil for export through the national Iraqi pipeline, claiming Baghdad had not fully repaid operating costs to producing companies. The federal government responded by threatening to deduct what the oil would have generated in sales from the KRG's annual budget allocation, poten-tially halving it. This latest flare-up in perennially tense Erbil-Baghdad relations has highlighted the troubling fact that not only have the two sides failed to resolve their dif-ferences but also that, by striking out on unilateral courses, they have deepened them to the point that a solution appears more remote than ever. It is late already, but the best way forward is a deal between Baghdad and Erbil, centred on a federal hydrocarbons law and a compromise on dis-puted territories. International actors – the UN with its tech-nical expertise, the U.S. given its unique responsibility as well as strategic interest in keeping things on an even keel – should launch a new initiative to bring the two back to the table.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Ethnic Conflict, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
198. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not
- Author:
- Irwin M. Stelzer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
199. Kazakhstan's Energy Sector Since Independence: Two Decades of Growth and Challenges Ahead?
- Author:
- Katherine Hardin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since its independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has tripled its oil production, taking its place among the top twenty oil producers globally. The country currently produces more than 1.7 million barrels per day (mbd), an amount roughly equal to Libya's 2010 production. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan's oil reserves estimates have nearly doubled, placing it among the top five countries that will account for more than half of the global liquids capacity growth to 2020. Kazakhstan's considerable resource base has been a critical factor in this success, but the government of Kazakhstan under President Nursultan Nazarbayev has also made strategic choices to attract investment into the energy sector and has successfully crafted a "multivectoral" energy policy with its neighbors, particularly in the case of energy transportation. This paper highlights key stages in Kazakhstan's emergence as a major energy producer, but points to challenges that lie ahead as the country continues to increase oil and gas production and exports.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Libya
200. Baltic Energy Security: Building a European Energy Future
- Author:
- Mihaela Carstei
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Historically, energy security has played a central role in shaping the national security strategy and interests of the Baltic states. The diverse challenges that exist in the region make it necessary to focus on identifying areas of cooperation between the countries as they pursue diversified oil and gas supplies.This is crucial to achieve a regional approach to the European Union's common energy security goals.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe