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91. The End Of Saudi Arabia's Addiction To Oil: Downstream Industrial Development

Author:
Jean-Francois Seznec
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia’s leadership recently introduced an ambitious plan called Vision 2030 to move the country away from oil and toward a more diversified, modern economy. Fortunately, the economy is already much more diversified than is often reported, a fact obscured by the very high price of oil from 2000 to 2014. Since the mid-1970s, the Kingdom has developed chemical, metal, and fertilizer industries that are among the most advanced in the world. Most of these industries have been built on the natural advantages of Saudi Arabia: low-cost energy, large mineral resources, access to plentiful capital, and proximity to the huge markets of Asia.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Economic structure
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia

92. India's Energy Needs And The Arab/Persian Gulf

Author:
Jean-Francois Seznec and Ramesh Pallakonda
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
India’s economy is increasing at the fastest rate in the world, now making it the globe’s third largest user of crude oil. While India is benefitting from the low oil prices seen since mid-2014, it has precious few oil and gas resources of its own and will remain highly dependent on imports. On the other hand India is now a large exporter of products like gasoline and diesel fuels because it has built a very large refining capacity, which ultimately renders India’s need for crude oil more pressing.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, and Oil
Political Geography:
India

93. Follow the External (Balance of Payments) Breakevens of the Oil Exporters

Author:
Brad W. Setser
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The global impact of oil’s fall from $100 plus to under $50 a barrel has not gotten as much attention as I think it deserves. For most oil exporters, it has been a profound shock—one that forced such a massive contraction in imports that it pulled down global trade (far more than the trade remedies that tend to dominate the ‘trade” news). A few countries adjusted quickly and relatively efficiently (Russia), though not painlessly. A few have struggled to adapt—notably, because of its large external debt, poor policies, and growing political crisis, Venezuela.
Topic:
Oil and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

94. Interactive: Oil Exporters' External Breakeven Prices

Author:
Brad Sester and Cole Frank
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The 2014 fall in global oil prices, from over $100 a barrel to around $50 a barrel, reduced the export proceeds of the world’s main oil- and gas-exporting economies by about $1 trillion. After a decade of largely uninterrupted high oil prices, this dramatic swing has tested the economic resiliency and political adaptability of oil-exporting countries. One of the best single measures of the resilience of an oil- or gas-exporting economy is the oil price that covers its import bill—the external breakeven price.
Topic:
Oil and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
America

95. Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices

Author:
Robert McNally
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, and OPEC
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East
Publication Identifier:
9780231543682
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

96. State Responses to the Relapse into Insurgent Violence in Nigeria's Oil Region

Author:
Charles Ukeje
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
With its roots in decades of crude oil production and the attendant crises of mismanagement of oil revenues, the reemergence of armed groups1 in the Niger Delta region in early 2016 marked a return to the ‘business-as-usual’ insurgency that dominated the oil region since the 1990s. In February 2016, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) claimed responsibility for attacking oil facilities owned by major international oil companies (IOCs). During the same period, the state-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Com- pany (NNPC) reportedly spent N4.023 billion to repair 293 pipeline breaks. These attacks disrupted oil production and forced the IOCs to declare a force majeure, reducing daily oil production from 2.2 million to between 1.6 and 1.7 per million barrels per day. These developments coincided with a na- tional fiscal crisis linked to dwindling global oil prices; from over $100/barrel to around $50/barrel. Without steady gas supplies, the already dire electricity situation nationwide was further compounded by a 2,500 megawatts drop in power generation.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Non State Actors, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

97. The Resurgence of Petro-Conflict in Post-Amnesty Niger Delta, Nigeria: Rethinking Conflict Trajectories and Reforms

Author:
Elias Courson
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Since the late 1990s, the oil-endowed Niger Delta region has become an almost ungovernable space. From 1999, there has been a turn to militancy, which escalated with the emergence of the Movement for 1 the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) in 2005/6. Although the government was initially slow to react to the unfolding trajectory of violent conflict in the region, there was a period of relative peace in the wake of the 2009 amnesty deal, which was somewhat disrupted in February 2016 by the emergence of a new militant group, the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA).2 Apart from the NDA, a plethora of little-known militant groups emerged in the Niger Delta between February and November 2016. Their attacks brought the oil industry and by extension, the nation’s economy to a state of near collapse. The government lost about $7 billion (N2.1 trillion) due to the activities of insurgent groups and oil pipeline vandals in the Niger Delta. Some estimates suggest that these disturbances brought down oil production from 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), to barely 1 million bpd. The NDA’s strategic return to the oil creeks to mount sting operations on Nigeria’s petro-economy when global oil prices had fallen drastically (from a peak of $115 per barrel in mid-2014 to less than $40 per barrel in early 2016), exacerbated the country’s financial woes and contributed towards the national economic recession.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Global Recession, and Militias
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

98. Political Relations Between Turkey and Georgia in the Post-Soviet Era

Author:
Fatih Mehmet Sayin and Murat Doğan
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Georgia and Turkey have become important partners in the Caucasus region after the independence of Georgia in 1991. Two countries preferred to follow pro-West policies in their foreign policy against the Russian factor. They have geopolitical importance and geostrategic location for Russia throughout history. This article analyzes the foreign policies of Georgia and Turkey and examines the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline as a common foreign policy between them. The paper found out that this kind of project between Georgia and Turkey would make them important actors rising from the regional level to the global level in the future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Oil, History, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, Georgia, and Mediterranean

99. China and Global Energy Governance under the G20 Framework

Author:
Alex He
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper explores China’s perspectives and practices in its quest for overseas energy supply security and its participation in international energy cooperation since becoming a net oil import country in 1993. It compares the traditional approach, in which China mainly focuses on bilateral means to pursue its overseas energy supply security, and the new concept of energy security, in which greater involvement in global energy governance, in particular in the Group of Twenty (G20), is highlighted to promote China’s energy security. The paper argues that China still retains a bilateral and regional cooperation approach, while making progress in developing closer cooperation with existing major global energy governing institutions. The One Belt, One Road strategy proposed in 2013 is regarded as a strengthened version of the bilateral and regional cooperation approach. Chinese academic circles constitute the main forces advocating China’s more positive participation in global energy governance. The G20 provides significant institutional arrangements to coordinate big powers to govern the international energy markets and to address climate change. This paper suggests that, given China’s growing prominence at the G20, it could be the proper platform for the country to play a more active role in global energy governance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and G20
Political Geography:
China

100. The Future of Canada's Oil Sands in a Decarbonizing Global Economy

Author:
Jeff Rubin
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Alberta premier Rachel Notley have both argued that improving Canada’s emissions record will safeguard the future development of the oil sands. The perspective offers little recognition of the current problems facing the country’s largest energy resource, and even less recognition of the problems that the oil sands will encounter as a result of actions taken by other countries to limit their own carbon emissions as pledged recently at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As climate change compels deep decarbonization of the global economy, emission restrictions around the world will destroy demand for billions of barrels of oil over the coming decades, severely impairing the economic viability of high-cost producers.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Oil, United Nations, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Canada